Northern Ireland Poll...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

DUP 28% (+5.5)
UUP 16% (-10.8 )
Sinn Fein 20% (-1.7)
SDLP 20% (-1.0)
Alliance 4% (+1.0)

Change are from 2001

Belfast Telegraph

[afleitch]

I have qualms with that poll. Where on earth are Catholic voters going if both Sinn Fein and the SDLP are loosing votes! There is a very slight possibility the UUP would take a few, but they've went down big style. Catholic voters can't just disappear.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I have qualms with that poll. Where on earth are Catholic voters going if both Sinn Fein and the SDLP are loosing votes! There is a very slight possibility the UUP would take a few, but they've went down big style. Catholic voters can't just disappear.

Margin of error and a rise in the Alliance vote I'd guess. I'll have a look to see if I can find some more detailed results

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Full results here

Note that the SDLP has risen by 3pts since the Assembly Election

[Jake]

Interesting.  It's ditressing to see the DUP's numbers go up, while the UUP drops.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Interesting.  It's ditressing to see the DUP's numbers go up, while the UUP drops.

Distressing it certainly is (and on a uniform swing the UUP would be pretty much wiped out: they've already lost Lagan Valley due to Donaldson's defection, and they'd lose East Antrim, South Antrim and Upper Bann (Upper Bann is Trimble's seat btw) to the DUP and South Belfast to the SDLP. They'd be left with just North Down and if the Alliance put up a candidate there...) I'm no fan of the UUP but I find the DUP sinister in the extreme.
It'll be interesting to see how the PUP does actually.

[Jake]

Interesting.  It's ditressing to see the DUP's numbers go up, while the UUP drops.

Distressing it certainly is (and on a uniform swing the UUP would be pretty much wiped out: they've already lost Lagan Valley due to Donaldson's defection, and they'd lose East Antrim, South Antrim and Upper Bann (Upper Bann is Trimble's seat btw) to the DUP and South Belfast to the SDLP. They'd be left with just North Down and if the Alliance put up a candidate there...) I'm no fan of the UUP but I find the DUP sinister in the extreme.
It'll be interesting to see how the PUP does actually.

I like Sinn Fein's objectives but not it's motives, but I utterly despise the DUP.  Hopefully, people will see the light and vote Alliance, or at least UUP.

[Notre Dame rules!]

Perhaps the sample has been cooked like many polling groups do here.  Shortly before the election in November, polling samples would be heavily weighted to one party or the other.  It was madness.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

explain these parties. I know DUP is Paisley's nutters and Sinn Fein is the pro-IRA group. So what are the rest?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So there are no liberal Protestant parties? Bleh. I guess I'd have to vote for Alliance.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

So there are no liberal Protestant parties? Bleh. I guess I'd have to vote for Alliance.

The PUP (linked to the UVF) are quite leftwing economically. Not really your type though.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

what's wrong with them? Do they occasionally side with Paisley or something?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

what's wrong with them? Do they occasionally side with Paisley or something?

...linked to the UVF...

[Democratic Hawk]

I haven't a clue, who I would support if I lived in Northern Ireland.

Since I'm a Protestant, I'd certainly be a unionist. Since I've no love for the British Conservative Party, I'd be less inclined to support the OUP. Since I'm working class, I'd be more inclined to support the DUP or PUP - but I'm a political moderate, so that rules them out!

Hell would freeze over before I supported Sinn Fein, which leaves me with the SDLP because I'm a member of the British Labour Party - but I'm not a nationalist, which leaves the Alliance, which I wouldn't support because there is slim chance that they'd be my MP

Fortunately, I don't have to decide as I don't live there. Phew!

Dave

[patrick1]

what's wrong with them? Do they occasionally side with Paisley or something?

...linked to the UVF...

LOL...Seems odd to say it but I like Ervine a lot more than Paisley and Trimble's party.  P.U.P. is really just a one man show though.  They barely run anyone.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

LOL...Seems odd to say it but I like Ervine a lot more than Paisley and Trimble's party. 

Same thing here actually. Things have come to a pretty pass when a party linked to the UVF is in many ways the most *moderate* unionist party...

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True. Ervine seems to have a fairly solid level of support in East Belfast (around 10% election after election), but other than that the PUP is basically non-existent. Still he keeps Robinson's majority down and that's the main thing

I'd like to see some form of non-sectarian Labour party re-established in Northern Ireland... they'd do quite well in East Belfast methinks.

[patrick1]

LOL...Seems odd to say it but I like Ervine a lot more than Paisley and Trimble's party.

Same thing here actually. Things have come to a pretty pass when a party linked to the UVF is in many ways the most *moderate* unionist party...

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True. Ervine seems to have a fairly solid level of support in East Belfast (around 10% election after election), but other than that the PUP is basically non-existent. Still he keeps Robinson's majority down and that's the main thing

I'd like to see some form of non-sectarian Labour party re-established in Northern Ireland... they'd do quite well in East Belfast methinks.

Depends what brand of Laubour- Tony Blairs Labour party would definitely not take hold.  Both sides have been so influenced by the hold divide and conquer tactics that sectarianism is almost ingrained in these neighborhoods.  Ive been to West and East Belfast and these places are $hitholes.- same goes for Derry.  Odd for me in that I had never really seen a white ghetto.  The sad thing, for me at least,  is that Protestant dissenters like Wolfetone used to be the most radical and now that community has morphed into that prick Paisley.  There are many culprits but I particlarly blame people like Edward Carson who were able to stir the fears of the populace for political gain and divide the communities. 

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Depends what brand of Laubour- Tony Blairs Labour party would definitely not take hold.

I was thinking something like the Labour parties in place like Sunderland or Barnsley

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There was a report a while ago that said that over 90% of working class areas in Belfast are segregated... worse it's ever been apparently.

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True. What's very depressing is that fact that East Belfast used to be a fairly prosperous working class area. Northern Ireland's economy has literally collapsed in the past 30 odd years.

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Carson was the one that prosecuted Wilde IIRC

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

oh what the hey, I guess I'd just vote SDLP. I'd rather have a leftist Catholic government than Paisley's nutters.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

on second thought, I think I'd vote strategically.

I'd vote SDLP as long as the unionists were sure to hold control of the government. If it looked like the nationalists could win and it secede to join Ireland, I'd go with the UUP.

The devil would be looking for a snowplow the day I would vote for the DUP or Sinn Fein.

[Silent Hunter]

I'd probably back the SDLP, based on the fact that they're a PSE party.

That poll is bad news for the UUP though...

[Hitchabrut]

What do you think will happen in the next 20 years in Northern Ireland? Also, what is the chance that the political parties will still be linked to UK parties if independence or unification with the Irish occurs?

[Jake]

What do you think will happen in the next 20 years in Northern Ireland? Also, what is the chance that the political parties will still be linked to UK parties if independence or unification with the Irish occurs?

I'm only guessing, but the trend lately has been towards the extremists on each side and to that end, I see the DUP especially growing stronger.  All of this could change of course if the tension drops just a knoch.

[Notre Dame rules!]

on second thought, I think I'd vote strategically.

I'd vote SDLP as long as the unionists were sure to hold control of the government. If it looked like the nationalists could win and it secede to join Ireland, I'd go with the UUP.

The devil would be looking for a snowplow the day I would vote for the DUP or Sinn Fein.

What would be so terribly wrong if all of Ireland was united, provided it was by peaceful means? 

Basically, I'm in favor of a united Ireland, though Ulster's lagging economy would drag the Republic's down, much like the former East Germany has been a milstone around the Federal Republic's neck.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

If I lived in Northern Ireland, I would much rather be under the British government than the Irish government, since the Republic of Ireland is waaaaaay too socially conservative. They only legalized divorce 10 years ago! And birth control is still difficult to get in some areas.

Besides, I'm a Protestant.