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  ME-PPP: Clinton leads Christie by 8%, other GOPs by 23% or more
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Author Topic: ME-PPP: Clinton leads Christie by 8%, other GOPs by 23% or more  (Read 663 times)
JRP1994
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« on: November 13, 2013, 09:34:07 am »

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/11/maine-miscellany.html

Clinton 47, Christie 39
Clinton 55, Bush 32
Clinton 57, Paul 32
Clinton 57, Cruz 30

Also, in the GOP primary, Christie leads Cruz 47-0 among moderates.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #1 on: November 13, 2013, 03:54:38 pm »

Exciting. Smiley

I'm surprised that Jeb and Rand do almost as hourrible as Ted Cruz.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #2 on: November 13, 2013, 05:36:09 pm »

How close does Maine have to get before you could conceivably see a split between the two CDs?
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IceSpear
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« Reply #3 on: November 13, 2013, 05:45:35 pm »
« Edited: November 13, 2013, 05:55:53 pm by IceSpear »

How close does Maine have to get before you could conceivably see a split between the two CDs?

Looking at the CD results from the past 3 elections...6 points or closer.

2004:
ME-AL: Kerry +9
ME-02: Kerry +6

2008:
ME-AL: Obama +18
ME-02: Obama +12

2012:
ME-AL: Obama +15
ME-02: Obama +9

In 2000, the gap between the CDs was also a lot lower, more similar to 2004 than 2008/2012. So I expect if Clinton is the nominee the gap will be lower as well. Realistically, Christie will probably have to come within 4-5 points to win CD 2.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #4 on: November 13, 2013, 07:00:06 pm »

Wouldn't there have been redistricting in both 2000 and 2010?  I would think the only relevant numbers would be the 2012 numbers, since those had the same district lines as 2016.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #5 on: November 13, 2013, 08:29:52 pm »

Christie vs. Clinton by age:
18-29: Clinton +44
30-45: tie
46-65: Clinton +9
65+: Christie +2
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Mopolis
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« Reply #6 on: November 14, 2013, 08:11:19 am »

Christie vs. Clinton by age:
18-29: Clinton +44

I had to check the crosstabs myself to be sure that this wasn't a typo...
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IceSpear
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« Reply #7 on: November 14, 2013, 03:27:26 pm »

PPP's age crosstabs are usually funky.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #8 on: November 14, 2013, 05:54:52 pm »

Fat man could play well here, who knows. I suppose Maine has a weird intersection of Obama-Christie voters and Romney-Clinton voters though.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #9 on: November 14, 2013, 07:46:14 pm »


Consistent with what we're seeing in other state polls.  In Christie vs. Clinton, most of the Democratic states are trending Republican and vice versa.
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