New Jersey exit poll: Clinton 48% Christie 44%

[Mr. Morden]

The exit poll conducted in New Jersey with Tuesday's election included a hypothetical 2016 matchup:

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/11/05/21324042-exit-polls-clinton-beats-christie-in-nj-in-potential-2016-matchup

Clinton 48%
Christie 44%

Would Christie be a good president?

yes 51%
no 44%

[Tender Branson]

Christie would get a significant home state bonus if he's the nominee, but not enough to win the state against her, as more minorities would turn out in the general election.

Poll looks reasonable.

[pbrower2a]

Polls setting Hillary Clinton against everyone else have consistently shown her way ahead in all Strong D states. 

[Likely Voter]

7 points down in a state that Obama won by almost 18 isn't bad, but then again it is an off year election. Mitt Romney got 1.5M votes last year and lost huge, Christie gets 1.3M and wins even bigger.

Bottom line in a CLinton v Christie general election I dont see NJ being a tipping point state, but I suspect that both parties would spend money there.

[Lief 🗽]

Clinton will win NJ with a greater margin than Kerry's.

[pbrower2a]

7 points down in a state that Obama won by almost 18 isn't bad, but then again it is an off year election. Mitt Romney got 1.5M votes last year and lost huge, Christie gets 1.3M and wins even bigger.

Bottom line in a CLinton v Christie general election I dont see NJ being a tipping point state, but I suspect that both parties would spend money there.

That is about the difference between a Favorite Son and an outsider. Contrast California between 1976 and 1980 and between 1984 and 1988, Georgia between 1972 and 1976 and 1980 and 1984, Texas between 1996 and 2000 and between 2004 and 2008. It may not apply so strongly to a near-max-out scenario (Illinois between 2004 and 2008). At this point I predict that Hillary Clinton will not defeat Chris Christie by a double-digit margin in Illinois.

The most likely tipping-point state in 2016 now looks like Pennsylvania or Virginia. 

[barfbag]

That sounds about right three years ahead of time. Three years from now we could be looking at something different. For example, we might see two candidates with different names running against each other.

[Eraserhead]

Clinton will win NJ with a greater margin than Kerry's.

If she is lucky enough not to face Christie, she'll probably win by more than Obama did in 2012 (his best showing in the state).

[Tender Branson]

Poll was actually revised to 48-44 Clinton later ...