ME-PPP: Clinton leads Christie by 8%, other GOPs by 23% or more

[JRP1994]

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/11/maine-miscellany.html

Clinton 47, Christie 39
Clinton 55, Bush 32
Clinton 57, Paul 32
Clinton 57, Cruz 30

Also, in the GOP primary, Christie leads Cruz 47-0 among moderates.

[eric82oslo]

Exciting.

I'm surprised that Jeb and Rand do almost as hourrible as Ted Cruz.

[Mr. Morden]

How close does Maine have to get before you could conceivably see a split between the two CDs?

[IceSpear]

How close does Maine have to get before you could conceivably see a split between the two CDs?

Looking at the CD results from the past 3 elections...6 points or closer.

2004:
ME-AL: Kerry +9
ME-02: Kerry +6

2008:
ME-AL: Obama +18
ME-02: Obama +12

2012:
ME-AL: Obama +15
ME-02: Obama +9

In 2000, the gap between the CDs was also a lot lower, more similar to 2004 than 2008/2012. So I expect if Clinton is the nominee the gap will be lower as well. Realistically, Christie will probably have to come within 4-5 points to win CD 2.

[Mr. Morden]

Wouldn't there have been redistricting in both 2000 and 2010?  I would think the only relevant numbers would be the 2012 numbers, since those had the same district lines as 2016.

[Mr. Morden]

Christie vs. Clinton by age:
18-29: Clinton +44
30-45: tie
46-65: Clinton +9
65+: Christie +2

[Mopsus]

Christie vs. Clinton by age:
18-29: Clinton +44

I had to check the crosstabs myself to be sure that this wasn't a typo...

[IceSpear]

PPP's age crosstabs are usually funky.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

Fat man could play well here, who knows. I suppose Maine has a weird intersection of Obama-Christie voters and Romney-Clinton voters though.

[Mr. Morden]

Fat man could play well here, who knows.

Consistent with what we're seeing in other state polls.  In Christie vs. Clinton, most of the Democratic states are trending Republican and vice versa.