South Australian Parliamentary Elections Thread (March 15, 2014)

[morgieb]

Amazing. Labor had no right to win the election, yet I can't see the Liberals being able to form government.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Embarassing for Liberals. I'm pretty sure everyone expected them to win.

The voters, even more than the media, expected it.

Have to wonder, had she stayed, if Redmond would've done better.

I wonder the same thing myself regarding Redmond.

While I certainly get the logic of having a fresh-face... the basic fact was that Marshall just seemed to be out-matched by Wetherill and one has to wonder that if someone more experienced would have performed better.

If I remember correctly, Redmond has the Libs ahead when she was removed? But I could be wrong. I just vaguely remember that there was some kind of "wtf" moment when Redmond was removed... that it was more about internal dramas.

That's why I stated the Liberals need to sort out their factional warfare problem. As for polling when Redmond was leader, the Liberals were in the mid 50s for most of the tenure post-2010, although the last poll with Redmond as leader, in late 2012, saw only a 51-49 result.

[Hatman 🍁]

The Liberals at least have the moral authority to govern. Reminds me of a similar scenario that resulted in the 1985 Ontario election. (Liberals won the PV, but lost in seats, but formed the govt with the support of the NDP)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The Liberals at least have the moral authority to govern. Reminds me of a similar scenario that resulted in the 1985 Ontario election. (Liberals won the PV, but lost in seats, but formed the govt with the support of the NDP)

I think that's a fair consideration - but I tend to follow the rule that in a parliamentary system, if seats are what matter ... then the seats are what matter. It should be noted that in SA, in the last 20 elections, the party who won the popular vote only formed Government 11 times.

So while I understand the position, the Liberals won the most votes, they just didn't do it where it mattered.

[Smid]

I'm leaning toward predicting a hung-parliament

I believe the words are "You read it here, first"

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'm leaning toward predicting a hung-parliament

I believe the words are "You read it here, first"

Awww shucks

[RogueBeaver]

My opinion is that whoever wins a plurality of seats should form government. So Lab stays, hopefully not for a full term...

[Frodo]

Is a Labor minority government the most likely outcome of this election? 

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Is a Labor minority government the most likely outcome of this election? 

It's not implausible that the Libs can get over the line, but I think it's an 80/20 shot that it's a minority ALP Government.

[Smid]

My opinion is that whoever wins a plurality of seats should form government. So Lab stays, hopefully not for a full term...

Fixed election dates, so the Parliament will go full term unless there's a confidence failure or possibly some sort of state equivalent of a Double Dissolution (those are the only ways it can happen in Victoria, anyway, which also has fixed terms). Also note, the fixed terms are constitutionally set, so can't be ignored and an early election scheduled without following the provisions set out in the Constitution (again, that's how it is in Victoria, anyway).

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

My opinion is that whoever wins a plurality of seats should form government. So Lab stays, hopefully not for a full term...

Smid is right, it would take a significant move for the Government to not last the full term. It should also be noted that in Australia many state Governments have relied on minority government to rule and recently, MOST of them have made it to the next election. 

[Frodo]

Just two seats left to be decided now:

Labor: 23
Liberals: 20
Other: 2

[Smid]

Interim Results of the South Australian state election, pulled off Antony Green's site. I will update this map from the Electoral Commission website once they finish counting, and possibly if a seat flips in the meantime, but this will do for the time being.

Two Candidate Preferred Results (Winning Candidate)



Two Candidate Preferred Swing



For those interested, Holden's automotive manufacturing plant that is shutting is situated in Elizabeth, in the Northern suburbs of Adelaide (basically the far Western corner of Little Para, where it joins Ramsay and Taylor). If you're unfamiliar with electorates, Ramsey is the diamond/square-balanced-on-its-corner with a little chunk added on the Southwestern edge. Taylor is adjacent to Ramsay, stretching northwards along the waterfront.

[MaxQue]

Two things.

1. Surprised to see a Labor seat in what seems to be the Outback.

2. Surprised to see a swing to Labor in Adelaide suburbs/exurbs.

[Smid]

Regarding the first point, that seat is Giles, which includes the mining town of Coober Pedy (copper, I think), which voted Liberal, plus aboriginal communities, however the vast majority of the voters live in Whyalla, a town made famous by Craig Emerson and which has a fair amount of heavy industry.

Edit: The largest booth in the electorate, Whyalla Norrie South, was 76.4% Labor (the largest booth was also Labor's strongest booth).

[Frodo]

With 73% of the vote counted:

Labor: 23
Liberals: 22
other: 2

[Zanas]

Why in the world is it taking so long ?

[ObserverIE]

Why in the world is it taking so long ?

1. Postal votes (AFAIK) only have to be posted on or before election day, rather than having to arrive on or before election day.
2. There aren't fixed precincts; (again AFAIK) anyone can turn up at any polling station and get a ballot paper for their home constituency, which means that ballot papers end up travelling all over the place.

[Nichlemn]

The last election was arguably comparably embarassing/frustrating for the Liberals in electoral math. Labour had an 8.4% swing against them, but lost only 2 seats net.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

It's important to note that the 2006 election was a blood-bath for the Libs.... so the margins, and relative swings were huge.

[stepney]

The Liberals at least have the moral authority to govern. Reminds me of a similar scenario that resulted in the 1985 Ontario election. (Liberals won the PV, but lost in seats, but formed the govt with the support of the NDP)

I think that's a fair consideration - but I tend to follow the rule that in a parliamentary system, if seats are what matter ... then the seats are what matter. It should be noted that in SA, in the last 20 elections, the party who won the popular vote only formed Government 11 times.

That's cheating because I guess (can't be bothered to count back 20 elections) it covers the Playmander? In that sense a party losing the vote but winning a majority obviously forms the Government, but does such a consideration apply to winning a plurality in a hung Parliament?

Separately, to the Australian commenters in the know, does anyone think any of the tight marginals could be flipped after postal votes are counted, as I guess postal votes lean Liberal?

[MaxQue]

I think someone indicated earlier than postal votes were leaning Labor, usually.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

I think someone indicated earlier than postal votes were leaning Labor, usually.

So it's possible that Mitchell flips and hands Labor a majority government? What would be the chances of that?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think someone indicated earlier than postal votes were leaning Labor, usually.

So it's possible that Mitchell flips and hands Labor a majority government? What would be the chances of that?

It's not uniform, Mitchell is gone, the swing is too large and the postals/pre-polls are leaning stronger to the Liberals.

Whereas in Colton they've gone to the ALP, which will ultimately hold that seat, and they've been basically tied in Ashford, considering the ordinary vote swing TO the ALP in that seat, it's also safe. So long story short, the ALP will not pick up a 24th seat and the Libs will not get to 23 on the back of pre-polls and postals.

[MaxQue]

I think someone indicated earlier than postal votes were leaning Labor, usually.

So it's possible that Mitchell flips and hands Labor a majority government? What would be the chances of that?

Assuming that same number of declaration votes than in 2010, Labor would needs 61% of the outstanding vote, but Liberals won 56% of already counted declaration vote.

Declaration vote seems to be both pre-poll and postal votes, so, it depends of which is counted first and if they lean in different directions.