South Australian Parliamentary Elections Thread (March 15, 2014)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I think the undecideds will break very, very strongly to Labor. If they don't already hate him, they're not going to be in an anti-Weatherill mood come election day, surely?

A lot of it comes down to the campaign, if Wetherill can argue HE needs more time to get things done and they LIKE what he's doing... then the undecideds will probably break for him. But if there is a lazy mood of 'change' the largely un-engaged undecideds will probably go with the flow. 

[Frodo]

Voters clear on Weatherill: your time is up

SARAH MARTIN
THE AUSTRALIAN
MARCH 01, 2014 12:00AM

VOTERS are preparing to elect a Liberal government in South Australia for the first time in 12 years, as Premier Jay Weatherill’s personal standing falters.

Just two weeks from the March 15 election, the Liberal Party has increased its lead over Labor to 54-46 on a two-party-preferred basis, according to the latest Newspoll taken exclusively for The Weekend Australian.

Labor’s primary vote remains stubbornly low, at 34 per cent, in the survey taken last week.

Meanwhile, primary support has galvanised behind the Liberals at 44 per cent - up four points since the previous Newspoll in December.

Worryingly for Labor, voter commitment is also high, with the vast majority of those surveyed having locked in their vote midway through the campaign.

The poll shows that 55 per cent of voters say they will not change their vote between now and election day, and a further 32 per cent say there is only a “slight” chance of a shift.

[Hifly]

The first electorate poll is out!

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Colton is held by Labor by a margin of 3.6% and is their eighth most marginal seat. The results of the poll highlight that a similar situation to 2010 could take place; There may be much lower than average swings in Labor's most marginal seats with popular incumbents but we could be looking at very large swings in Labor's safer seats, particularly those with retiring members such as Lee, Torrens and Reynell. Polls have shown that the greatest swings will take place in Metropolitan Adelaide (5.3% according to a poll of the city a couple of weeks ago).

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

The first electorate poll is out!

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Colton is held by Labor by a margin of 3.6% and is their eighth most marginal seat. The results of the poll highlight that a similar situation to 2010 could take place; There may be much lower than average swings in Labor's most marginal seats with popular incumbents but we could be looking at very large swings in Labor's safer seats, particularly those with retiring members such as Lee, Torrens and Reynell. Polls have shown that the greatest swings will take place in Metropolitan Adelaide (5.3% according to a poll of the city a couple of weeks ago).

This has become an election to watch, considering the winner of Colton, and its predecessor Henley Beach, has always won the election, going all the way back to 1970.

I doubt Reynell, Kaurna or Torrens will fall though. Lee, while still unlikely, has the Johanson factor, how well he'll do outside of a by-election, I don't know.

[Hifly]

Another electorate poll is out from the seat of Adelaide, showing a 54-46 2PP for the Liberals (no swing from 2010).
Rachel Sanderson took this seat with over a 14% swing 4 years ago.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Another electorate poll is out from the seat of Adelaide, showing a 54-46 2PP for the Liberals (no swing from 2010).
Rachel Sanderson took this seat with over a 14% swing 4 years ago.

That seems pretty reasonable, considering the massive swing last time.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Labor have been accused of a racist smear campaign against the Liberal candidate for Elder:
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/news/south-australia-state-election-2014/liberal-candidate-for-elder-carolyn-habib-labels-state-election-campaign-material-filthy-and-racist/story-fnl3k6uz-1226852398947

Not as nasty as the Lindsay pamphlet scandal by some moronic Liberal members from 2007, still not nice though.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The Lindsay pamphlet was outright race-baiting ... this thing? My God, I'm actually agreeing with Cory Bernardi (there is not water hot enough or cleaning product corrosive enough to clean my mind of that thought) ... but this is a storm in a tea-cup. Mind you, must be a pleasure for the Libs to have someone else to be accused of racial insensitivity.


Onto the election itself... I have a weird feeling this could end up being a lot like 2010... the Libs under-perform in those crucial marginals, they have a chance to get big swings to them in safer seats (on both sides) and maybe pick up Mt Gambier from the Indy. I haven't paid a lot of attention, but I don't see the ALP losing more than 6.

[Hifly]

The Lindsay pamphlet was outright race-baiting ... this thing? My God, I'm actually agreeing with Cory Bernardi (there is not water hot enough or cleaning product corrosive enough to clean my mind of that thought) ... but this is a storm in a tea-cup. Mind you, must be a pleasure for the Libs to have someone else to be accused of racial insensitivity.


Onto the election itself... I have a weird feeling this could end up being a lot like 2010... the Libs under-perform in those crucial marginals, they have a chance to get big swings to them in safer seats (on both sides) and maybe pick up Mt Gambier from the Indy. I haven't paid a lot of attention, but I don't see the ALP losing more than 6.

If you haven't paid a lot of attention, how have you come to that conclusion?

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

The Lindsay pamphlet was outright race-baiting ... this thing? My God, I'm actually agreeing with Cory Bernardi (there is not water hot enough or cleaning product corrosive enough to clean my mind of that thought) ... but this is a storm in a tea-cup. Mind you, must be a pleasure for the Libs to have someone else to be accused of racial insensitivity.


Onto the election itself... I have a weird feeling this could end up being a lot like 2010... the Libs under-perform in those crucial marginals, they have a chance to get big swings to them in safer seats (on both sides) and maybe pick up Mt Gambier from the Indy. I haven't paid a lot of attention, but I don't see the ALP losing more than 6.

I definitely agree with you, this is a storm in a tea cup compared to the Lindsay pamphlets. Also, just out of interest, which seats do you think the ALP will lose?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

The Lindsay pamphlet was outright race-baiting ... this thing? My God, I'm actually agreeing with Cory Bernardi (there is not water hot enough or cleaning product corrosive enough to clean my mind of that thought) ... but this is a storm in a tea-cup. Mind you, must be a pleasure for the Libs to have someone else to be accused of racial insensitivity.


Onto the election itself... I have a weird feeling this could end up being a lot like 2010... the Libs under-perform in those crucial marginals, they have a chance to get big swings to them in safer seats (on both sides) and maybe pick up Mt Gambier from the Indy. I haven't paid a lot of attention, but I don't see the ALP losing more than 6.

If you haven't paid a lot of attention, how have you come to that conclusion?

LOL... As in I haven't been obsessing over it ... I've been paying less attention than I normally would, but that's still enough to make a reasonable judgement.

[Hifly]

The Lindsay pamphlet was outright race-baiting ... this thing? My God, I'm actually agreeing with Cory Bernardi (there is not water hot enough or cleaning product corrosive enough to clean my mind of that thought) ... but this is a storm in a tea-cup. Mind you, must be a pleasure for the Libs to have someone else to be accused of racial insensitivity.


Onto the election itself... I have a weird feeling this could end up being a lot like 2010... the Libs under-perform in those crucial marginals, they have a chance to get big swings to them in safer seats (on both sides) and maybe pick up Mt Gambier from the Indy. I haven't paid a lot of attention, but I don't see the ALP losing more than 6.

If you haven't paid a lot of attention, how have you come to that conclusion?

LOL... As in I haven't been obsessing over it ... I've been paying less attention than I normally would, but that's still enough to make a reasonable judgement.

I agree with your judgement (apart from the bit that the ALP won't lose more than 6 seats).

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

These are the seats I'm sure are probably gone.

Hartley
Bright
Ashford
Elder
Reynell

Honestly? A Lib minority Government would not shock me.

[Hifly]

New polls out today showing Labor narrowly holding on in Newland and Mitchell. I will be so delighted if Tom Kenyon holds his seat!

Polnut how come you think Reynell will fall?

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

New polls out today showing Labor narrowly holding on in Newland and Mitchell. I will be so delighted if Tom Kenyon holds his seat!

Polnut how come you think Reynell will fall?

I'm wondering the same thing, maybe the retiring member effect?

Also, do you have a link to these Mitchell/Newland polls?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

New polls out today showing Labor narrowly holding on in Newland and Mitchell. I will be so delighted if Tom Kenyon holds his seat!

Polnut how come you think Reynell will fall?

I'm wondering the same thing, maybe the retiring member effect?

Also, do you have a link to these Mitchell/Newland polls?

Yes, retiring member. It's last on the list, because I'm the least sure about it.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

Here are my updated predictions:

Adelaide (LIB 4.2%)
Liberal retain, with a small swing, as Adelaide swung hard to the Liberals last election.

Ashford (ALP 0.6%)
Likely Liberal gain, particularly with the new boundaries.

Bragg (LIB 20.1%)
Liberal retain.

Bright (ALP 0.5%)
Liberal gain, while Chloe Fox managed to hold on narrowly last time, I can't see her holding on in 2014.

Chaffey (LIB 28.4%)
Liberal retain.

Cheltenham (ALP 16.0%)
Labor retain.

Colton (ALP 3.6%)
Likely Liberal gain, given the bellwether history here.

Croydon (ALP 15.5%)
Labor retain.

Davenport (LIB 10.9%)
Liberal retain.

Dunstan (LIB 4.8%)
Easy Liberal retain, considering that this is the Liberal leader's seat.

Elder (ALP 2.0%)
Likely Liberal gain, particularly with Pat Conlon's retirement.

Enfield (ALP 9.0%)
Labor retain.

Finniss (LIB 11.2%)
Liberal retain.

Fisher (IND 17.4% vs LIB)
Bob Such will hold this seat until the day he retires.

Flinders (LIB 26.2%)
Liberal retain.

Florey (ALP 3.6%)
Possible Liberal gain, although more likely than Wright.

Frome (IND 6.7% vs LIB)
Hard to call, Geoff Brock has been elected twice and his well established, particularly in the Port Pirie section of the electorate, although a general change of government mood could see him go. I'd say Brock holds this.

Giles (ALP 11.9%)
Labor retain.

Goyder (LIB 15.7%)
Liberal retain.

Hammond (LIB 17.7%)
Liberal retain.

Hartley (ALP 0.1%)
Liberal gain.

Heysen (LIB 16.5%)
Liberal retain.

Kaurna (ALP 8.8%)
Labor retain.

Kavel (LIB 15.8%)
Liberal retain.

Lee (ALP 7.6%)
Likely Labor retain, although Gary Johanson, Mayor of Port Adelaide, is running as an independent, and having polled strongly in the 2012 Port Adelaide by-election, could make things more interesting than usual.

Light (ALP 2.8%)
Likely Liberal gain, with the potential for an above average Liberal swing.

Little Para (ALP 11.3%)
Labor retain.

MacKillop (LIB 24.7%)
Liberal retain.
   
Mawson (ALP 4.5%)
Likely Liberal gain, considering the seat's bellwether history and the swing to Labor in 2010.

Mitchell (ALP 2.4%)
Kris Hanna recontesting means his preferences will be crucial, although the general swing to the Liberals should get them over the line here.

Morialta (LIB 2.8%)
Liberal retain.

Morphett (LIB 10.6%)
Liberal retain.

Mount Gambier (IND 0.5% vs LIB)
Very narrow margin, although independents have a history of doing better at their second election. Will be very dependent on local issues and Pegler's popularity as an incumbent MP. Honestly can't say.

Napier (ALP 16.1%)
Labor retain.

Newland (ALP 2.6%)
Likely Liberal gain.

Playford (ALP 14.7%)
Labor retain.

Port Adelaide (ALP 12.7%)
Labor retain.

Ramsay (ALP 17.8%)
Labor retain.

Reynell (ALP 10.5 %)
Labor retain.

Schubert (LIB 17.8%)
Liberal retain.

Stuart (LIB 7.6%)
Liberal retain.

Taylor (ALP 12.6%)
Labor retain.

Torrens (ALP 8.2%)
Likely Labor retain, unless Labor lose in a landslide.

Unley (LIB 12.0%)
Liberal retain.

Waite (LIB 12.1%)
Liberal retain.

West Torrens (ALP 10.8%)
Labor retain, even on the old boundaries this would have been a likely Labor hold.

Wright (ALP 4.9%)
At the upper end of marginal Labor seats, will probably narrowly stay with Labor.

On these predictions:
Liberal: 28 (+10)
Labor: 16 (-10)
Independents: 3 (n/c, assuming Pegler holds Mt. Gambier)

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

I'm leaning toward predicting a hung-parliament

[Hifly]

2 final polls out with widely differing results:
Reachtel 55-45
Newspoll 52.3-47.7

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

2 final polls out with widely differing results:
Reachtel 55-45
Newspoll 52.3-47.7

If it's ReachTel, that's decent Lib majority - Newspoll, the Government could retain the majority on those numbers.

My gut-feel, final prediction will be tomorrow, will be closer to Newspoll ... 52-48 LNP. The biggest swings kept within safe seats and the Libs will under-perform in the marginals.

Ugh - I'm thinking... Libs 23 ALP 22 IND 2 ... Libs form Government with Indy support.

I'll need to think more tomorrow ...

[Frodo]

2 final polls out with widely differing results:
Reachtel 55-45
Newspoll 52.3-47.7

If it's ReachTel, that's decent Lib majority - Newspoll, the Government could retain the majority on those numbers.

My gut-feel, final prediction will be tomorrow, will be closer to Newspoll ... 52-48 LNP. The biggest swings kept within safe seats and the Libs will under-perform in the marginals.

Ugh - I'm thinking... Libs 23 ALP 22 IND 2 ... Libs form Government with Indy support.

I'll need to think more tomorrow ...

If that is actually the result, then that is beyond pathetic for the SA Liberal Party.  They are running in an ideal environment that in any other Australian state would give them a 60-40 edge over Labor, and if the best they can manage is a bare majority (if that), then I don't know what to say. 

[Hifly]

2 final polls out with widely differing results:
Reachtel 55-45
Newspoll 52.3-47.7

If it's ReachTel, that's decent Lib majority - Newspoll, the Government could retain the majority on those numbers.

My gut-feel, final prediction will be tomorrow, will be closer to Newspoll ... 52-48 LNP. The biggest swings kept within safe seats and the Libs will under-perform in the marginals.

Ugh - I'm thinking... Libs 23 ALP 22 IND 2 ... Libs form Government with Indy support.

I'll need to think more tomorrow ...

If that is actually the result, then that is beyond pathetic for the SA Liberal Party.  They are running in an ideal environment that in any other Australian state would give them a 60-40 edge over Labor, and if the best they can manage is a bare majority (if that), then I don't know what to say.  

The national environment is certainly far from "ideal" for the Libs (and thus it is different from previous state elections where Libs were able to also take advantage of public hatred for the national ALP), but indeed, should they fail to win a majority today it will be an embarrassment for Marshall.

[You kip if you want to...]

So, the ALP are gonna be out of government everywhere except the ACT. They ever been at an ebb that low before?

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

So, the ALP are gonna be out of government everywhere except the ACT. They ever been at an ebb that low before?

The period after the 1996 election was pretty bad for them... but not that bad. Things will start to turn back now.

On the result - who the hell knows? But I will say the Libs ran a dreadful campaign and in many ways a lot of us did expect the polls to tighten towards the end. That being a product if the fact that the SA ALP Government isn't exactly loved, nor is it hated as QLD or NSW labor were, but because of that, the Libs couldn't play small target and rely on the Government's unpopularity to carry them over the line, and they just haven't done a good job.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

T-minus 90 minutes until the polls close.

Will be watching this race closer than Tasmania.