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Author Topic: CO-Quinnipiac: Obamacare-f**kup drags down Udall  (Read 2169 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: November 20, 2013, 10:11:45 am »

43-40 Udall/McMillan
45-42 Udall/Buck
44-39 Udall/Baumgardner
45-39 Udall/Hill
45-38 Udall/Stephens
45-36 Udall/Aspiri

Do you approve or disapprove of the way Mark Udall is handling his job as United States Senator?

44-44

From November 15 - 18, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,206 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/colorado/release-detail?ReleaseID=1978
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Miles
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« Reply #1 on: November 20, 2013, 10:17:54 am »

Wow, I can't believe he's in worse shape than Hick.
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« Reply #2 on: November 20, 2013, 10:26:04 am »

Holy crap. I'd always pegged this as Safe D. Then again if Obama bounces back a bit, moves out of competitive range.
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« Reply #3 on: November 20, 2013, 10:29:42 am »

Still likely D. I take Quinnipiac polls with a lot of skepticism ever since they said Kasich was up 14. I just don't see him having an only 3 point lead over Ken Buck given he lost to the weaker Bennet in a GOP year by 2 points.

Just watch. A PPP poll will be released that goes against this and has Udall up by about 8 among McMillan, Buck or Baumgardner.
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« Reply #4 on: November 20, 2013, 11:14:33 am »

I don't even know who McMillan is, and he or she is down by only five. You can blame the ACA if you want, and that is absolutely part of it, but the truth is that Coloradans are intensely opposed to  the Democrats, a lot of it due to legislative overreach. The Democratic brand is badly wounded and it is what is behind the recalls, the whopping defeat if Amendment 66, and ugly poll numbers like these.

It has been lost on a lot of the country because this conservative renaissance is happening at the same time liberals are picking up wins on the news-dominating east coast. Election Day this year in Colorado was one of the best we've had in a decade. How many other conservatives across the country would say the same?

Democrats tried taking an ostensibly center-right state far to the left and now they are paying the price  The good news for them is that the GOP in Colorado is still pretty weak, and that is the only reason Democrats have a real shot at winning here next year. But if the last few months are any indication, even that may not be enough.
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« Reply #5 on: November 20, 2013, 11:28:32 am »

It also makes me wonder if we'll see bigger names like Beauprez, Suthers, Norton, maybe Stapleton or Penry, or even Owens start taking a look at the gubernatorial and Senate races. Cory Gardner has already turned down the Udall race, but maybe big promises from big donors and these numbers will give him second thoughts. This may be THE year for Colorado Republicans, I would hate to see it just passed by. These numbers for Hick and Udall are against mid-level opponents. Top rate Republicans would be favorites in both races.
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #6 on: November 20, 2013, 11:44:56 am »

Quinnipac polls of Colorado are always a little weird. Still calling this Likely D.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #7 on: November 20, 2013, 12:30:40 pm »

Quinnipac polls of Colorado are always a little weird. Still calling this Likely D.

This. They had Romney winning in almost every poll last year.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #8 on: November 20, 2013, 12:37:04 pm »

Quinnipac polls of Colorado are always a little weird. Still calling this Likely D.

This. They had Romney winning in almost every poll last year.

But the last Quinnipiac poll was from early October 2012, conducted in the days after Obama's catastrophic 1st debate (the poll was Romney+1).

Quinnipiac did a good job in 2008 in CO though.

And also this year so far.

Also, Hillary is down by 8 in this poll - so even if you use the full MoE - she's still behind Christie.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #9 on: November 20, 2013, 02:11:31 pm »

Jaime McMillan sounds like a strong candidate (for Immigration Reform, Anti-Drug War) for Colorado, hopefully he makes it out of the primary.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #10 on: November 20, 2013, 02:16:34 pm »

Bad poll, there's no way Obama's approval rating is that low in Colorado. That being said, recent polling has me running very, very, very scared across the board. I suppose it's possible that ACA antics hurt Obama particularly among swingy inter-mountain west voters though.
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« Reply #11 on: November 20, 2013, 02:18:21 pm »

Jaime McMillan sounds like a strong candidate (for Immigration Reform, Anti-Drug War) for Colorado, hopefully he makes it out of the primary.

He'd have to get his name recognition up in order to make it through the primary. Right now, he doesn't even have a Wikipedia article. Tongue

He does sound like a better fit for the state than the other declared candidates, though, from what you've said.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #12 on: November 20, 2013, 02:23:04 pm »

Jaime McMillan sounds like a strong candidate (for Immigration Reform, Anti-Drug War) for Colorado, hopefully he makes it out of the primary.

He'd have to get his name recognition up in order to make it through the primary. Right now, he doesn't even have a Wikipedia article. Tongue

He does sound like a better fit for the state than the other declared candidates, though, from what you've said.

He might have a problem in the primary though, as he's pro-choice Tongue

I'd say this is still Lean/Likely D, especially since a loon is likely to take the nod (I wouldn't be surprised if Ken Buck wins this outright).
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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #13 on: November 20, 2013, 08:33:40 pm »

Yikes. It seems pretty certain that if the election was held today, Dems would lose the Senate. Yet if it was held a month ago, Republicans likely would've lost the House. Will be interesting to see how the poll numbers move when the website is fixed and the media ends their perpetual negative coverage of Obamacare.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #14 on: November 20, 2013, 09:12:19 pm »

Yikes. This is pretty bad for the democrats if Udall is only tied.

Bad poll, there's no way Obama's approval rating is that low in Colorado. That being said, recent polling has me running very, very, very scared across the board. I suppose it's possible that ACA antics hurt Obama particularly among swingy inter-mountain west voters though.

If this is a bad poll, then all the recent polls are bad polls. Stop the denial please. Republicans suffered a massive blow, and now it's (seems) like its the democrats turn.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #15 on: November 22, 2013, 03:44:35 pm »

Jaime McMillan sounds like a strong candidate (for Immigration Reform, Anti-Drug War) for Colorado, hopefully he makes it out of the primary.

He'd have to get his name recognition up in order to make it through the primary. Right now, he doesn't even have a Wikipedia article. Tongue

He does sound like a better fit for the state than the other declared candidates, though, from what you've said.

He might have a problem in the primary though, as he's pro-choice Tongue

I'd say this is still Lean/Likely D, especially since a loon is likely to take the nod (I wouldn't be surprised if Ken Buck wins this outright).

As much as Colorado has shifted, we should still be able to obtain someone who is at least nominally Pro-Life if a victory is possible here. Remember, base turnout would still matter here and that Colorado Springs crowd has to have at least something to sink their teeth into.

I still don't think Buck can win Jeffco, so the best chance is also not him obviously.
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« Reply #16 on: November 22, 2013, 04:39:10 pm »

McMillan definitely has a chance. No idea about the others, but Buck puts this in Safe D territory.
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« Reply #17 on: November 22, 2013, 06:46:21 pm »

Its remarkable Buck has even a chance in a GOP Primary given the whole "Tape Recording" thing,
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« Reply #18 on: November 25, 2013, 09:53:20 pm »

New Poll: Colorado Senator by Quinnipiac University on 2012-11-18

Summary: D: 45%, R: 42%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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