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  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: AndrewTX, Likely Voter)
  MS-PPP: Hillary trails all Rs by single digits
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Author Topic: MS-PPP: Hillary trails all Rs by single digits  (Read 1078 times)
Miles
MilesC56
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« on: November 20, 2013, 02:19:47 pm »

Report.

Hillary- 42%
Bush- 50%

Hillary- 40%
Christie- 49%

Hillary- 45%
Cruz- 47%

Hillary- 44%
Paul- 46%
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IceSpear
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« Reply #1 on: November 20, 2013, 08:49:34 pm »

So apparently Mississippi is now only two points more Republican than Colorado.

One (or both) of these polls are dead wrong.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #2 on: November 21, 2013, 01:07:54 am »

The Democratic nominee will not be Barack Obama. We all know how President Obama polarizes the electorate. He may have been the perfect D nominee for President in 2008 and 2012 -- and Hillary Clinton isn't.

Sometimes the political pendulum swings. Maybe people get too much of one direction in politics and that goes bad.

I still think that Hillary Clinton is far more likely to carry Colorado than Mississippi in 2016. Remember -- the large minority in Colorado is Hispanic (largely Mexican-Americans) and Mexican-Americans have never felt the same animosity toward their collective interests that blacks have known. The Democrats have had strong GOTV drives in Colorado and have little experience at it in Mississippi.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #3 on: November 21, 2013, 02:28:14 am »

So apparently Mississippi is now only two points more Republican than Colorado.

One (or both) of these polls are dead wrong.

Not necessarily.

I have already predicted that MS could be much closer than expected with Hillary on the ticket, because MS is relatively poor and there are population groups that would back Hillary more than Obama (poorer or middle-class white working women for example). Because Obama was a "Black", these groups either didn't vote for Obama or voted for him in smaller numbers.

On the other hand, Hillary would likely keep Obama's "black coalition" in MS, making her the overall stronger candidate there (but only slightly). I still think she'd only improve by a couple points at best.

Interesting also that Christie does much better than expected. I thought he'd be only tied in MS, because many tea-partiers might not vote for him or stay home. But considering the hated Hillary would be his opponent, that's not the case.

Also:

Quote
Mississippi could be very interesting.  If there is one state in the deep south that could make the GOP sweat, it might be Mississippi after the closer-than-expected election of 2012.  However, that was with a black Obama on the ticket.  With him not on the ticket, that could also swing it back to pre-Obama levels.  I'm predicting the latter, but would not be surprised by the former.

The MS poll might actually show a lead for the Republicans, well within 10% or even closer than that (maybe the Southern candidates Paul and Rubio up 5-10, while the Romney-like Christie and the not so well known Cruz about tied with Hillary):

MS is getting increasingly more "black". Blacks account for 38% of the population is MS and they account for 43% of all annual births in MS.

This means the percentage of Blacks will naturally increase until 2016, which helps the Democratic candidate there.

Also, I think Obama's black coalition will also come out for Hillary, because the Clintons have historically been strong with Blacks.

...

The fact that CO is moving strongly away from the Democrats now has probably to do with the legislative stuff in the state (gun votes etc.) and the Obamacare-f**kup.

So, I wouldn't rule out that both polls are more or less an accurate picture right now ...
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #4 on: November 21, 2013, 10:55:00 am »

The fact that CO is moving strongly away from the Democrats now has probably to do with the legislative stuff in the state (gun votes etc.) and the Obamacare-f**kup.

The recall elections for those state legislators recently had about 0.000000001% turnout. And didn't some right-wing judge order the mail-in votes to be thrown away?
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #5 on: November 23, 2013, 07:54:00 am »

Christie vs. Clinton by age:
18-29: Christie +19
30-45: Clinton +14
46-65: Christie +8
65+: Christie +28

What?
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Snowguy716
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« Reply #6 on: December 06, 2013, 03:49:02 am »

Christie vs. Clinton by age:
18-29: Christie +19
30-45: Clinton +14
46-65: Christie +8
65+: Christie +28

What?

This mirrors the rest of the nation where the 18-29 group is strongly D while the 30-45 group is the most R, the 46-65 group is evenly split and the 65+ group is strongly R.

The south tends to go the opposite way of the rest of the country.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #7 on: December 06, 2013, 03:58:56 am »

Christie vs. Clinton by age:
18-29: Christie +19
30-45: Clinton +14
46-65: Christie +8
65+: Christie +28

What?

This mirrors the rest of the nation where the 18-29 group is strongly D while the 30-45 group is the most R, the 46-65 group is evenly split and the 65+ group is strongly R.

The south tends to go the opposite way of the rest of the country.

None of the other Southern states polled have shown that pattern, AFAIK.
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