FL-Quinnipiac: Hillary in good shape, but Bush makes it close
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 29, 2024, 04:42:50 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls
  FL-Quinnipiac: Hillary in good shape, but Bush makes it close
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: FL-Quinnipiac: Hillary in good shape, but Bush makes it close  (Read 919 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
Austria


Political Matrix
E: -6.06, S: -4.84

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 22, 2013, 06:03:23 AM »

Head to head, Clinton gets 47 percent to Bush's 45 percent.

She tops other Republicans:

    45 - 41 percent over Christie;
    50 - 43 percent over Rubio;
    51 - 41 percent over U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky;
    50 - 42 percent over U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin;
    52 - 36 percent over Cruz.

Florida voters say 56 - 39 percent that Clinton would make a good president, the best score of any candidate, followed by Christie at 45 - 35 percent, with Bush at a split 46 - 44 percent. All other candidates get negative scores, including Rubio with 39 - 47 percent.

Florida voters disapprove 57 - 40 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, matching his all-time worst score, a 57 - 39 percent disapproval, in a September 22, 2011, Quinnipiac University poll.

Disapproval is 93 - 6 percent among Republicans and 64 - 34 percent among independent voters, while Democrats approve 79 - 16 percent. Women disapprove 52 - 44 percent and men disapprove 63 - 35 percent.

Voters oppose the Affordable Care Act 54 - 39 percent, with partisan numbers that roughly match the president's approval rating.

...

From November 12 - 17, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,646 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. The survey includes 668 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points and 544 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/florida/release-detail?ReleaseID=1980
Logged
Lief 🗽
Lief
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,876


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 22, 2013, 03:17:20 PM »

Makes sense. Florida is perfect for Clinton. She should win it fairly easily (as far as swing states go).
Logged
Consciously Unconscious
Liberty Republican
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,453
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 22, 2013, 03:38:00 PM »

Bush could win Florida. 
Logged
JRP1994
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,046


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 22, 2013, 04:20:37 PM »

Oldie (July) but goldie from Nate Cohn at The New Republic:

http://www.newrepublic.com/article/113833/gop-latino-problem-republicans-need-florida-hispanics

"Florida was so close [in 2012] because the GOP has already made huge gains among white voters—bigger than any other battleground state. Obama lost Florida’s whites by 24 points, 10 points worse than Kerry’s more modest, 14 point defeat in 2004."

"Early polls show Hillary Clinton crushing in Florida by a double-digit margin because she’s doing far, better among whites than Obama—about as well as Gore. Those tallies would have been a deadheat a decade ago, but now result in a comfortable Democratic win."

"The pace of demographic change in Florida should alarm Republicans. Think about it like this: Kerry lost Florida by 5 points in 2004. Then, Obama did 10 points worse among whites. All of this was countered and overwhelmed by demographic change and an improved showing among non-whites. Kerry’s performance among white voters would have yielded a 7-point win in 2012—12 points better than his 5 point defeat in 2004."
Logged
ElectionsGuy
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,107
United States


Political Matrix
E: 7.10, S: -7.65

P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 22, 2013, 07:00:16 PM »

Republicans have to win this state.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,841
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 23, 2013, 03:31:26 PM »

Hillary Clinton wins 18-29 year olds 67-22, even against Bush.

Although age crosstabs are usually unreliable, if that's even close to true, FL will continue to slip further and further from the GOP.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 24, 2013, 09:53:10 AM »


They can lose it -- but they can't win the Presidency without it.
Logged
HAnnA MArin County
semocrat08
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,037
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 25, 2013, 02:57:43 AM »

Head to head, Clinton gets 47 percent to Bush's 45 percent.

She tops other Republicans:

    45 - 41 percent over Christie;
    50 - 43 percent over Rubio;
    51 - 41 percent over U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky;
    50 - 42 percent over U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin;
    52 - 36 percent over Cruz.

Please run, Ted Cruz!

I could see her doing a lot better in Florida than Obama.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 25, 2013, 07:24:25 AM »

Oldie (July) but goldie from Nate Cohn at The New Republic:

http://www.newrepublic.com/article/113833/gop-latino-problem-republicans-need-florida-hispanics

"Florida was so close [in 2012] because the GOP has already made huge gains among white voters—bigger than any other battleground state. Obama lost Florida’s whites by 24 points, 10 points worse than Kerry’s more modest, 14 point defeat in 2004."

"Early polls show Hillary Clinton crushing in Florida by a double-digit margin because she’s doing far, better among whites than Obama—about as well as Gore. Those tallies would have been a deadheat a decade ago, but now result in a comfortable Democratic win."

"The pace of demographic change in Florida should alarm Republicans. Think about it like this: Kerry lost Florida by 5 points in 2004. Then, Obama did 10 points worse among whites. All of this was countered and overwhelmed by demographic change and an improved showing among non-whites. Kerry’s performance among white voters would have yielded a 7-point win in 2012—12 points better than his 5 point defeat in 2004."

The Cuban-American vote used to be extremely R-leaning in view of the Cold War. (See also Chinese-Americans and Korean-Americans). The perception of a Communist threat has weakened among all Americans, but especially among those who had ties to Communist-dominated states.   
Logged
Dereich
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,893


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: November 25, 2013, 07:40:22 AM »

I agree that Hillary would do well in Florida; she's got appeal to a lot of the groups who matter. She wouldn't beat Bush though, he's still got a lot of goodwill in the state.
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,843
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: November 25, 2013, 07:50:39 AM »

Ted Cruz looks as if he could lose about as badly as Barry Goldwater did in 1964. Florida was one of Goldwater's 'eighth-best' state that year, and he still lost it 51-49.

Florida is a genuine swing state now, probably slightly more R than the US as a whole, but it did decide 2000.

I have been slow to give binary challenges between Hillary Clinton and Ted Cruz, but I have seen an unflattering pattern for Cruz. He seems to do worse than just about anyone. Sure he has fervent supporters, but he has turns even more people off.

I don't know how to predict how a 52-36 split would go in Florida. Even if 3/4 of the undecided went to the eventual loser (which is an extremely generous assumption on my part) one would end up with a 55-45 split of the vote. That is roughly how Ronald Reagan won the state in 1980.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.044 seconds with 14 queries.