Oldie (July) but goldie from Nate Cohn at The New Republic:
http://www.newrepublic.com/article/113833/gop-latino-problem-republicans-need-florida-hispanics"Florida was so close [in 2012] because the GOP has already made huge gains among white voters—bigger than any other battleground state. Obama lost Florida’s whites by 24 points, 10 points worse than Kerry’s more modest, 14 point defeat in 2004."
"Early polls show Hillary Clinton crushing in Florida by a double-digit margin because she’s doing far, better among whites than Obama—about as well as Gore. Those tallies would have been a deadheat a decade ago, but now result in a comfortable Democratic win."
"The pace of demographic change in Florida should alarm Republicans.
Think about it like this: Kerry lost Florida by 5 points in 2004. Then, Obama did 10 points worse among whites. All of this was countered and overwhelmed by demographic change and an improved showing among non-whites. Kerry’s performance among white voters would have yielded a 7-point win in 2012—12 points better than his 5 point defeat in 2004."
