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  (R) states most likely to go (D)
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Author Topic: (R) states most likely to go (D)  (Read 1085 times)
Mr. Illini
liberty142
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« on: November 27, 2013, 12:40:19 am »

Rank the 2012 Presidential NON-SWING (according to Politico) Republican states in order of which is most likely to leave the non-swing Republican category (lean-R and safe-R categories).

(in no specific order other than west to east)

Alaska
Idaho
Utah
Arizona
Montana
Wyoming
North Dakota
South Dakota
Nebraska
Kansas
Oklahoma
Texas
Missouri
Arkansas
Louisiana
Indiana
Kentucky
Tennessee
Mississippi
Alabama
Georgia
West Virginia
South Carolina
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #1 on: November 27, 2013, 12:51:44 am »

1. Arizona
2. Georgia
3. Missouri
4. Indiana
5. Kentucky
6. Arkansas
7. Alaska
8. Montana
9. South Carolina
10. Tennessee
11. South Dakota
12. North Dakota
13. Texas
14. Louisiana
15. West Virginia
16. Mississippi
17. Kansas
18. Nebraska
19. Idaho
20. Oklahoma
21. Wyoming
22. Alabama
23. Utah

Kind of decided these randomly in my head, but there you go.
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Brewer
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« Reply #2 on: November 27, 2013, 12:56:51 am »
« Edited: November 27, 2013, 08:34:25 am by Brewer »

Indiana
Missouri
Georgia
Arizona
Montana
Alaska
Tennessee
Arkansas
Kentucky
South Carolina
North Dakota
West Virginia
Texas
South Dakota
Mississippi
Louisiana
Tennessee
Nebraska
Alabama
Kansas
Oklahoma
Idaho
Wyoming
Utah
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Mr. Illini
liberty142
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« Reply #3 on: November 27, 2013, 01:11:55 am »

I'll take it upon myself to answer my own question.

Indiana
Missouri
Arizona
Montana
Alaska
Georgia
West Virginia
Arkansas
Kentucky
Tennessee
South Dakota
Mississippi
Louisiana
Texas
South Carolina
Kansas
North Dakota
Wyoming
Tennessee
Idaho
Nebraska
Alabama
Oklahoma
Utah
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #4 on: November 27, 2013, 01:53:13 am »

Arizona
Missouri
Indiana
Alaska
Georgia
Montana
South Dakota
North Dakota
West Virginia
Tennessee
Louisiana
Kentucky
South Carolina

The rest would go Republican even in Jesus (D) vs. Satan (R).
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Anonymous
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« Reply #5 on: November 27, 2013, 06:15:26 am »

Missouri
Arizona
Georgia
Indiana
South Carolina
Tennessee
Louisiana
Arkansas
West Virginia
Mississippi
Montana
South Dakota
Texas
Kentucky
Kansas
North Dakota
Alabama
Alaska
Nebraska
Oklahoma
Idaho
Wyoming
Utah
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kcguy
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« Reply #6 on: November 27, 2013, 08:13:48 pm »

Georgia
South Carolina
Arizona
Indiana
Missouri
and the rest

The rest would go Republican even in Jesus (D) vs. Satan (R).

Back in 2000, a pundit said that if Al Gore were to appear on national television with horns and glowing red eyes and chanting "All praise to Satan", New York would move from the Democratic column to "Undecided".
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #7 on: November 27, 2013, 10:18:27 pm »
« Edited: November 27, 2013, 10:48:05 pm by eric82oslo »

I think... (and this is not based solely on 2016, more on 2024/2028)

Arizona
Texas
Georgia
Alaska
South Carolina
Utah
Indiana
Missouri
Kentucky
Tennessee
Kansas
Oklahoma
Arkansas
Louisiana
Mississippi
Nebraska
South Dakota
Montana
West Virginia
Alabama
Idaho
Wyoming
North Dakota

I feel strongly that North Dakota will be one of the three most Republican states over the next couple of decades, unless something changes like the Republican party would change radically its platform, outreach, strategy, kind of candidates and such. I also feel that Utah will transform radically from what it is today in the matter of less than a generation. It's in the very middle of the latino belt, and the strong increase of its latino population isn't that far behind its cousins Nevada, Texas and California. In fact, its latino increase in percentage in the last decade was almost exactly the same as those of Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona. Didn't get much attention in the media though. Tongue In fact, Utah's percentage increased even more than neighbouring Colorado (4% against Colorado's 3.7%).

While we're talking about the latin boom, these were the percentages each of the 50 states + D.C. increased its latin population (as a percentage of the overall population) between 1990 & 2010 [with current Republican or GOP-leaning states with above average growth in bold]:

1. Nevada: +16.1% (which fully explains why it's no longer a Republican state)
2. Texas: +12.1%
3. California: +11.8%
4. Arizona: +10.8%
5. Florida: +10.3%
6. Utah: +8.1%

7. New Jersey: +8.1%
8. New Mexico: +8.1%
9. Illinois: +7.9%
10. Rhode Island: +7.8%
11. Colorado: +7.8%
12. Oregon: +7.7%
National average: +7.3%
13. North Carolina: +7.2%
14. Georgia: +7.1%
15. Nebraska: +6.9%
16. Connecticut: +6.9%
17. Washington: +6.8%
18. Kansas: +6.7%
19. Oklahoma: +6.2%
20. Idaho: +5.9%
21. Delaware: +5.8%
22. Arkansas: +5.6%
23. Maryland: +5.6%
24. Virginia: +5.3%
25. New York: +5.3%
26. Massachusetts: +4.8%
27. South Carolina: +4.2%
28. Indiana: +4.2%
29. Wisconsin: +4%
30. Tennessee: +3.9%
31. Iowa: +3.8%
32. Pennsylvania: +3.7%
33. Washington D.C.: +3.7%
34. Minnesota: +3.5%
35. Alabama: +3.3%
36. Wyoming: +3.2%
37. Kentucky: +2.5%
38. Missouri: +2.3%
39. Alaska: +2.3%
40. Michigan: +2.2%
41. Mississippi: +2.1%
42. Louisiana: +2%
43. South Dakota: +1.9%
44. New Hampshire: +1.8%
45. Ohio: +1.8%
46. Hawaii: +1.6% (surprisingly small increase for such a sunny paradise)
47. Montana: +1.4%
48. North Dakota: +1.3%
49. Vermont: +0.8%
50. West Virginia: +0.7%
51. Maine: +0.7%

Clearly this goes to show that latinos don't particularily like the thought of living in the cold north. Tongue

Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_by_Hispanic_and_Latino_population#Hispanic.2FLatino_.25_of_Population_.281910-2010.29_by_U.S._State
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Orser67
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« Reply #8 on: November 28, 2013, 05:38:04 am »

In the 2020's, I'd say:

Tier 1: Demographic Hopes
Georgia
Arizona

Tier 2: Demographic Dreams
Texas
South Carolina

Tier 3: Interior South Comeback Scenario
West Virginia
Arkansas

Tier 4: Likely R
Indiana
Montana
Missouri

Tier 5: Interior South Comeback Scenario, Part II
Kentucky
Louisiana
Tennessee

Tier 6: Libertarian-leaning states somewhat open to Democrats
South Dakota
Alaska
North Dakota

Tier 7: Demographic Fantasies
Mississippi
Alabama

Tier 8: Mormon moderation scenario
Utah

Tier 9: Probably not
Nebraska
Kansas

Tier 10: Nope
Oklahoma
Idaho
Wyoming
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