(R) states most likely to go (D) (user search)

In the 2020's, I'd say:

Tier 1: Demographic Hopes
Georgia
Arizona

Tier 2: Demographic Dreams
Texas
South Carolina

Tier 3: Interior South Comeback Scenario
West Virginia
Arkansas

Tier 4: Likely R
Indiana
Montana
Missouri

Tier 5: Interior South Comeback Scenario, Part II
Kentucky
Louisiana
Tennessee

Tier 6: Libertarian-leaning states somewhat open to Democrats
South Dakota
Alaska
North Dakota

Tier 7: Demographic Fantasies
Mississippi
Alabama

Tier 8: Mormon moderation scenario
Utah

Tier 9: Probably not
Nebraska
Kansas

Tier 10: Nope
Oklahoma
Idaho
Wyoming

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