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  OH-Quinnipiac: Hillary tops all Republicans, but the Christie-race is close
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Author Topic: OH-Quinnipiac: Hillary tops all Republicans, but the Christie-race is close  (Read 1682 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: November 27, 2013, 06:32:44 am »

First, this bit of news:

Quote
President Barack Obama's job approval rating among Ohio voters is a negative 34 - 61 percent, his lowest score in any Quinnipiac University poll nationally or in any state, according to a poll released today.

President Obama's previous low in Ohio was a negative 40 - 57 percent in a June 26 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. His previous low in any state was a negative 36 - 59 percent in Colorado November 20.

This number is similar to the Mercyhurst poll recently.

...

2016 General Election:

In an early look at the 2016 run for the White House, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton gets 42 percent to 41 percent for New Jersey Republican Gov. Christopher Christie in Ohio. Secretary Clinton tops Gov. John Kasich 49 - 38 percent and leads other Republicans:

    50 - 37 percent over former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush;
    48 - 39 percent over U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida;
    50 - 40 percent over U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky;
    49 - 41 percent over U.S. Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin.
    50 - 35 percent over U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas.

Clinton would make a good president, Ohio voters say 54 - 40 percent, the best score of any contender measured here, followed by Christie 44 - 32 percent. No other candidate gets a positive score, with Kasich at a negative 32 - 49 percent.

"Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie are the 2016 leaders to Ohio voters, locked in a statistical tie," Brown said. "Ms. Clinton easily defeats a bevy of other potential GOP aspirants. Interestingly, when voters are asked whether she would make a good president, more say yes, than say they would vote for her. Conversely, Vice President Joseph Biden is not presidential material in the eyes of Ohioans. Only 28 percent think he would be a good president.

"Votes are split 44 - 45 percent on whether Washington experience or experience outside the Beltway would help someone be a good president. Democrats, women and black voters say Washington experience is better, while Republicans, independents, men and white voters see it the other way."

From November 19 - 24, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,361 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/ohio/release-detail?ReleaseID=1985
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: November 27, 2013, 08:49:51 am »

Surprisingly good numbers for Hillary against the GOP, considering Obama has crashed and burned in the state approval-wise (especially among Whites).

OH should be an above-average state for her.
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Cory Booker
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« Reply #2 on: November 27, 2013, 11:27:15 am »

This isn't a congressional thread but Portman is safe. Christie may very well confine her to defending the 272 wall with Co, NV and NH, as well as PA.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #3 on: November 27, 2013, 10:38:06 pm »

Christie vs. Clinton by age:
18-29: Clinton +2
30-49: Clinton +7
50-64: tie
65+: Christie +8

And for Paul vs. Clinton, youngs are Paul's best age group:
18-29: Clinton +1
30-49: Clinton +11
50-64: Clinton +20
65+: Clinton +3
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #4 on: November 28, 2013, 02:49:33 am »

And for Paul vs. Clinton, youngs are Paul's best age group:
18-29: Clinton +1
30-49: Clinton +11
50-64: Clinton +20
65+: Clinton +3

This is why I don't believe this poll.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5 on: November 28, 2013, 03:07:00 am »

And for Paul vs. Clinton, youngs are Paul's best age group:
18-29: Clinton +1
30-49: Clinton +11
50-64: Clinton +20
65+: Clinton +3

This is why I don't believe this poll.

The Pauls always poll well among the young ...
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #6 on: November 28, 2013, 03:08:42 am »

And for Paul vs. Clinton, youngs are Paul's best age group:
18-29: Clinton +1
30-49: Clinton +11
50-64: Clinton +20
65+: Clinton +3

This is why I don't believe this poll.

The Pauls always poll well among the young ...

Not in that new Pennsylvania poll they didn't.
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #7 on: December 09, 2013, 09:29:38 pm »

One interesting note here is that Hillary does better among those without a college education in every matchup. I'm used to seeing the partisan breakdown there flipped.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #8 on: December 09, 2013, 09:38:26 pm »

One interesting note here is that Hillary does better among those without a college education in every matchup. I'm used to seeing the partisan breakdown there flipped.

It's not unusual.  Republicans have more $, and $ correlates with education.  In the 2012 national exit poll, Obama did slightly better among those without a college degree than those with one.  He led by 4 among those without a college degree, but only by 2 among those with a college degree.

And of course, if you go way back in time to the Clinton era, it was more pronounced (and closer to what we're seeing in the 2016 polls).  In 1996, Clinton beat Dole by 14 points among non-college graduates, but only beat him by 3 points among college graduates.
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opebo
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« Reply #9 on: December 10, 2013, 01:19:04 pm »

Must win state for the GOP, but not for Hillary.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #10 on: December 10, 2013, 01:21:40 pm »

Must win state for the GOP, but not for Hillary.

If the urban/rural split widens, the Democrats may actually need it. Ohio is largely urban.

I do think the Democrats will win it anyway.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #11 on: December 15, 2013, 12:48:23 am »

One interesting note here is that Hillary does better among those without a college education in every matchup. I'm used to seeing the partisan breakdown there flipped.

It's not unusual.  Republicans have more $, and $ correlates with education.  In the 2012 national exit poll, Obama did slightly better among those without a college degree than those with one.  He led by 4 among those without a college degree, but only by 2 among those with a college degree.

And of course, if you go way back in time to the Clinton era, it was more pronounced (and closer to what we're seeing in the 2016 polls).  In 1996, Clinton beat Dole by 14 points among non-college graduates, but only beat him by 3 points among college graduates.


There's a huge difference between having a degreed profession in which one is paid by the government (directly as an employee or indirectly as a contractor) and being strictly in the private sector. A physician who depends heavily upon Medicaid or Medicare, a merchant whose clientele relies heavily upon SNAP, or a chemist in the employ of a water district thinks differently about Big Government than someone with a similar job or business whose involvement with the government is with taxing or regulatory bodies.

In 2008 the connection between income and the vote was never so weak between the two Presidential nominees as it had ever been.   
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WeAreDoomed
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« Reply #12 on: December 15, 2013, 10:56:09 am »

I wonder if Ohio is trending Democrat, opposite of Pennsylvania.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #13 on: December 15, 2013, 11:37:57 am »

The main reasons Pennsylvania trended Republican in 2012 are the voter suppression laws and the voting machines that flipped votes to Romney. Someone had a video up on YouTube that showed the machines flipping their votes.
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WeAreDoomed
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« Reply #14 on: December 15, 2013, 01:45:30 pm »

The main reasons Pennsylvania trended Republican in 2012 are the voter suppression laws and the voting machines that flipped votes to Romney. Someone had a video up on YouTube that showed the machines flipping their votes.
Will PA still have those laws in place by 2016?
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Scott
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« Reply #15 on: December 15, 2013, 02:27:04 pm »

The main reasons Pennsylvania trended Republican in 2012 are the voter suppression laws and the voting machines that flipped votes to Romney. Someone had a video up on YouTube that showed the machines flipping their votes.
Will PA still have those laws in place by 2016?

They probably will be on the books still, but if the next governor and attorney general are Democrats, they might not be enforced.
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henster
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« Reply #16 on: December 15, 2013, 03:38:08 pm »

The main reasons Pennsylvania trended Republican in 2012 are the voter suppression laws and the voting machines that flipped votes to Romney. Someone had a video up on YouTube that showed the machines flipping their votes.
Will PA still have those laws in place by 2016?

They probably will be on the books still, but if the next governor and attorney general are Democrats, they might not be enforced.

PA already has a Democratic AG and it's pretty likely they will have a Democratic Governor next year as well. The only way I see to repeal these laws is through the legislature and that requires flipping both chambers which is unlikely. Don't know how they can just not enforce these laws I think what's more likely is whoever is Gov will try to work with Republicans to try and loosen the restrictions.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #17 on: December 15, 2013, 04:29:13 pm »

The main reasons Pennsylvania trended Republican in 2012 are the voter suppression laws and the voting machines that flipped votes to Romney. Someone had a video up on YouTube that showed the machines flipping their votes.

That might've been a small part of it, but actually the main reason is that Romney dumped tons of cash in the state for a last minute gambit. Obama didn't respond in kind because he knew his lead there was comfortable enough to focus on the tipping point states.
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WeAreDoomed
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« Reply #18 on: December 17, 2013, 10:32:21 am »

How is Hillary in the lead here and not in Iowa?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #19 on: December 18, 2013, 09:28:19 am »

How is Hillary in the lead here and not in Iowa?

Could Iowa be drifting Right?

Ethanol subsidies that Democrats sponsored enriched Iowa farmers. Those are now expired or irrelevant. The big breaks now go to natural gas.
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WeAreDoomed
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« Reply #20 on: December 18, 2013, 11:46:08 am »

Good point. I wonder, Unlike PA, if Ohio is trending to the Democrats.
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JRP1994
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« Reply #21 on: December 18, 2013, 01:03:01 pm »

Good point. I wonder, Unlike PA, if Ohio is trending to the Democrats.

I think the PA trend can probably be attributed to Christie's relative strength in the Philly suburbs, due to them being covered in the New Jersey media market.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #22 on: December 18, 2013, 06:09:55 pm »

Good point. I wonder, Unlike PA, if Ohio is trending to the Democrats.

I think the PA trend can probably be attributed to Christie's relative strength in the Philly suburbs, due to them being covered in the New Jersey media market.

That's correct. I saw tons of Christie's ads, which obviously had little to no rebuttal due to Buono's non-campaign.
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#StillWithBeto
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« Reply #23 on: December 26, 2013, 03:53:26 am »

How is Hillary in the lead here and not in Iowa?

Iowa hasn't exactly been fond of the Clintons. She finished third here in the 2008 caucuses compared to Ohio which rejuvenated her campaign in 2008. Maybe she just does better with blue-collar workers as opposed to farmers and agriculture? Not really for sure.
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