IA-Harper: Christie & Cruz ahead

[Tender Branson]

Subsample (overlaps full sample): 390 likely GOP caucusgoers, MOE +/-4.96%

Q. If the 2016 Republican Presidential Caucus were held today, who would you most likely support: Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Paul Ryan, Rick Santorum, or Scott Walker?

17% Christie
16% Cruz    
13% Paul
11% Santorum
  9% Ryan
  7% Walker
  6% Rubio
  3% Jindal
17% Not sure    

http://www.conservativeintel.com/1126-conservative-intel-poll-of-iowa-2016-presidential-contests

[Brewer]

11% are still feeling it for Santorum?

[Keystone Phil]

11% are still feeling it for Santorum?

He obviously has strong connections to the Evangelical community there since his history 2012 victory. Those bonds don't just get erased.

[Brewer]

11% are still feeling it for Santorum?

He obviously has strong connections to the Evangelical community there since his history 2012 victory. Those bonds don't just get erased.

That's definitely true. I'm a little surprised Walker is behind Ryan, even if the margin is only 2 points. He oughtta start nipping at Paul and Cruz's heels in a while here.

[Mr. Morden]

So, we have relatively recent polls from three of the four early primary states (no Nevada poll yet).  Out of IA/NH/SC, Christie narrowly leads two out of three.  The one out of those three that he's not leading?  New Hampshire (lol).

[dudehere92]

I believe Chris Christie will have a difficult time winning Iowa given the fact he's not seen as the social conservative in the race, and social conservatives generally win Iowa. It's more likely Mr. Santorum will again win Iowa.

However, you never know, and Christie will most likely win in New Hampshire.

[Mr. Morden]

Who leads among....?
age 18-35: Christie
age 36-50: Cruz
age 51-65: Christie
age 66+: Cruz
men: Christie
women: Christie
conservative: Cruz
moderate: Christie

[Eraserhead]

If Christie actually wins Iowa, I have hard time seeing him stopped after that...

[retromike22]

Is this the first poll (outside WI) where Walker is ahead of Rubio?

[Mr. Morden]

Is this the first poll (outside WI) where Walker is ahead of Rubio?

I think so, yes.  But the majority of the 2016 primary polls have not included Walker, so no comparison can be made in most cases.  PPP, for example, didn't include Walker in any of their polls (outside of Wisconsin) until this month.

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Once Iowa caucus voters get to know Christie's actual stances, he won't be getting anywhere above 10%.

[ElectionsGuy]

moderate: Cruz

[Mr. Morden]

moderate: Cruz

Sorry, that was a typo.  Should be Christie.  I've fixed it now.