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  PA-PPP: Christie leads Clinton, all other GOPs trail.
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Author Topic: PA-PPP: Christie leads Clinton, all other GOPs trail.  (Read 2356 times)
Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #25 on: November 28, 2013, 11:47:10 pm »

I think Democrats will come home in the North and West and that Republicans will come home in the South and farm states and that it will be a lot like last time. Then again, there could be a landslide if one base comes home and another doesn't.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #26 on: November 29, 2013, 12:01:46 am »

I think Democrats will come home in the North and West and that Republicans will come home in the South and farm states and that it will be a lot like last time. Then again, there could be a landslide if one base comes home and another doesn't.

They could come home in some/most states, but not everywhere.  The map does slowly change over time, and we shouldn't expect everything to line up the same as 2012.  And of course, Clinton isn't Obama, so she'll inevitably be stronger in some states than he was, and weaker in others.  (Likewise, Christie isn't Romney.)
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #27 on: November 29, 2013, 04:56:52 pm »

They could come home in some/most states, but not everywhere.  The map does slowly change over time, and we shouldn't expect everything to line up the same as 2012.  And of course, Clinton isn't Obama, so she'll inevitably be stronger in some states than he was, and weaker in others.  (Likewise, Christie isn't Romney.)


Christie will do lacklusterly in Utah, and likewise in other Mormon states like Arizona and Nevada.
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #28 on: December 03, 2013, 11:35:38 am »

If Christie beats Clinton in pa, the election is over. Dems only need Co or Oh to win with the 272 firewall. Pa is already calculates in Dems behalf.
Considering Christie's regional strength here, I don't think that is necessarily the case once you factor in that Clinton also has an added strength in Florida, a state Republicans supposedly have to win.
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opebo
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« Reply #29 on: December 03, 2013, 11:48:03 am »

If Christie beats Clinton in pa, the election is over. Dems only need Co or Oh to win with the 272 firewall. Pa is already calculates in Dems behalf.
Considering Christie's regional strength here, I don't think that is necessarily the case once you factor in that Clinton also has an added strength in Florida, a state Republicans supposedly have to win.

I suppose they don't have to win it, but winning without it requires a variety of somewhat unlikely things to occur:

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CLARENCE 2015!
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« Reply #30 on: December 03, 2013, 12:00:50 pm »

There is NO way Hillary will lose Pennsylvania...
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #31 on: December 03, 2013, 12:18:41 pm »

There is NO way Hillary will lose Pennsylvania...

They said the same thing about Colorado and Republicans in 2008.  That being said, Hillary can't win without Pennsylvania and probably can't win if she tries to win without Iowa or Colorado.
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opebo
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« Reply #32 on: December 03, 2013, 01:33:04 pm »

There is NO way Hillary will lose Pennsylvania...

They said the same thing about Colorado and Republicans in 2008.  That being said, Hillary can't win without Pennsylvania and probably can't win if she tries to win without Iowa or Colorado.

Oh really?

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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #33 on: December 03, 2013, 02:27:44 pm »

There is NO way Hillary will lose Pennsylvania...

They said the same thing about Colorado and Republicans in 2008.  That being said, Hillary can't win without Pennsylvania and probably can't win if she tries to win without Iowa or Colorado.

Oh really?



Do you really expect Hillary to win Ohio without Pennsylvania? This seems like a map similar to what McCain was hoping for around Halloween. That is. To hold Florida, NC and Indiana somehow get over the top with Pennsylvania.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #34 on: December 03, 2013, 04:24:30 pm »

There is NO way Hillary will lose Pennsylvania...

They said the same thing about Colorado and Republicans in 2008.  That being said, Hillary can't win without Pennsylvania and probably can't win if she tries to win without Iowa or Colorado.

Oh really?



Do you really expect Hillary to win Ohio without Pennsylvania?

Pennsylvania was closer than Iowa or New Hampshire in 2012. If for some quirk she won Florida but lost the next 4 narrowest Obama 2012 states, OH, VA, CO and PA she still wins.




I'll see it when I believe it but I am weary of this sort of thinking because I don't want the Democrats to be in the mindset by August that they only need to be campaigning in the bare majority of states to win.

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Bevinevitable
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« Reply #35 on: December 04, 2013, 05:52:25 pm »

There is no scenario where OH goes Democratic and PA goes Republican.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #36 on: December 04, 2013, 07:56:13 pm »

There is no scenario where OH goes Democratic and PA goes Republican.
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« Reply #37 on: December 04, 2013, 10:46:06 pm »

There is no scenario where OH goes Democratic and PA goes Republican.

Sure there is. Suppose a blizzard hits southern Ohio and Pennsylvania.
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #38 on: December 05, 2013, 09:55:13 am »

Pennsylvania is far less elastic than New Hampshire, Iowa, or Colorado. If Christie wins PA, that would point to a solid Republican victory larger than Bush in 2004(PA voted 50.92% for Kerry then), or a close election with PA being decided by less than 100,000 votes.


If Christie wins, PA will probably be very close but end up voting Hillary, but will be ripe for the picking in 2020.

Let's see. In 2004, it went D+2 and in 2012, it went about D+1.  Maybe Christie will do better in Pennsylvania than in the rest of the country. Then again, Ohio went the national average in 2004 and in 2012, it about R+1. Provided all of this, I can see how Pennsylvania can decide the election if Christie wins Ohio and Florida and Hillary still at least holds Virginia or both Colorado and Iowa.
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