PA-PPP: Christie leads Clinton, all other GOPs trail.

[Mr. Morden]

From the two previous Pennsylvania polls, Hillary lead every Republican contender by at least 12% (though neither of them polled Christie at the time, oddly enough). Now that's changed to Christie leading Hillary by 4% in the state. That's a 16% shift (at least theoretically, though noone should expect Christie to ever have been down that deeply in the state, the New Jersey bordering state), which is one of the most dramatic shifts/turn arounds we've seen all year.

The last PA poll to include Christie was by Quinnipiac in March, and had Clinton leading Christie by 5:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=170593.0

[Mr. Morden]

Christie vs. Clinton by age:
18-45: Clinton +7
46-65: Christie +13
65+: Christie +8

[Mr. Morden]

Yeah, if you take all the most recent polls at face value, then you have an electoral map in which Christie is doing better against Clinton in PA than either Florida or Ohio.  Which would be a fun map to see.  Florida going Dem. and Pennsylvania going GOP would be fun.

[Mr. Morden]

From a political spectator perspective, I wish we could have another election like 1976, in which the map is covered in swing states, and there aren't just seven competitive states that decide everything.  If you believe the Christie vs. Clinton polls, then such a matchup in 2016 would be full of swing states.

Sadly, I don't think it's going to hold up.

[Mr. Morden]

I think Democrats will come home in the North and West and that Republicans will come home in the South and farm states and that it will be a lot like last time. Then again, there could be a landslide if one base comes home and another doesn't.

They could come home in some/most states, but not everywhere.  The map does slowly change over time, and we shouldn't expect everything to line up the same as 2012.  And of course, Clinton isn't Obama, so she'll inevitably be stronger in some states than he was, and weaker in others.  (Likewise, Christie isn't Romney.)