PA-PPP: Christie leads Clinton, all other GOPs trail.

[Person Man]

The polls seem to be converging if you counted Republican bias on off years out west.
 
If  2016 and 2014 simultaneously happened today, the tipping point would still probably be PA/CO.

Republicans will get just what they need in the Senate plus 10 in the house. In 2016, they would pick up 2 in the senate and maybe another 5 in the house.

Pretty much a mirror image of 2012.


GOP 53/249
Dem 47/186



Chris Christie   51%
Hillary Clinton   47%

Not exactly the Reagan Revolution, but given the circumstances, very similar to when Bush was doing well. 

Long story short: The democrats are unpopular right now but things still can get better but also much worse.

[Person Man]

I think Democrats will come home in the North and West and that Republicans will come home in the South and farm states and that it will be a lot like last time. Then again, there could be a landslide if one base comes home and another doesn't.

[Person Man]

There is NO way Hillary will lose Pennsylvania...

They said the same thing about Colorado and Republicans in 2008.  That being said, Hillary can't win without Pennsylvania and probably can't win if she tries to win without Iowa or Colorado.

[Person Man]

There is NO way Hillary will lose Pennsylvania...

They said the same thing about Colorado and Republicans in 2008.  That being said, Hillary can't win without Pennsylvania and probably can't win if she tries to win without Iowa or Colorado.

Oh really?

Do you really expect Hillary to win Ohio without Pennsylvania? This seems like a map similar to what McCain was hoping for around Halloween. That is. To hold Florida, NC and Indiana somehow get over the top with Pennsylvania.

[Person Man]

There is NO way Hillary will lose Pennsylvania...

They said the same thing about Colorado and Republicans in 2008.  That being said, Hillary can't win without Pennsylvania and probably can't win if she tries to win without Iowa or Colorado.

Oh really?

Do you really expect Hillary to win Ohio without Pennsylvania?

Pennsylvania was closer than Iowa or New Hampshire in 2012. If for some quirk she won Florida but lost the next 4 narrowest Obama 2012 states, OH, VA, CO and PA she still wins.

I'll see it when I believe it but I am weary of this sort of thinking because I don't want the Democrats to be in the mindset by August that they only need to be campaigning in the bare majority of states to win.

[Person Man]

There is no scenario where OH goes Democratic and PA goes Republican.

[Person Man]

Pennsylvania is far less elastic than New Hampshire, Iowa, or Colorado. If Christie wins PA, that would point to a solid Republican victory larger than Bush in 2004(PA voted 50.92% for Kerry then), or a close election with PA being decided by less than 100,000 votes.


If Christie wins, PA will probably be very close but end up voting Hillary, but will be ripe for the picking in 2020.

Let's see. In 2004, it went D+2 and in 2012, it went about D+1.  Maybe Christie will do better in Pennsylvania than in the rest of the country. Then again, Ohio went the national average in 2004 and in 2012, it about R+1. Provided all of this, I can see how Pennsylvania can decide the election if Christie wins Ohio and Florida and Hillary still at least holds Virginia or both Colorado and Iowa.