CNN National Poll: Christie builds lead

[Tender Branson]

GOP:

24% Christie
13% Paul
11% Ryan
10% Cruz
  9% Rubio
  7% Perry
  6% Bush
  6% Santorum

DEM:

63% Clinton
12% Biden
  7% Warren
  5% Cuomo
  2% O'Malley

DEM (no Hillary)

43% Biden
17% Warren
15% Cuomo
  6% O'Malley

...

The poll was conducted November 18-20 for CNN by ORC International, with 843 adult Americans, including 418 Republicans and independents who lean towards the GOP, and 374 Democrats and independents who lean Democratic, questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points, with a sampling error of plus or minus five percentage points for questions just of Democrats or Republicans.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/11/29/christie-leads-possible-2016-gop-contenders-in-cnnorc-poll

[Maxwell]

That poll with Jebby so low makes me happy.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

Any guesses as to where things will be a year from now?

[Mr. Morden]

Here are the full results:

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/cnn/2013/images/11/29/cnn.orc.poll.2016.pdf

Since September, Biden has gained two points, and Clinton has lost two points.  At this rate, he should catch up to her in another 26 months (just in time for the beginning of primary season).

On the GOP side, Christie leads among almost every demographic group (even leading among those in the South).  The only exception is those making less than $50,000 a year.  Among those <$50,000, it's Paul who's in the lead.

Interestingly, Christie also cleans up among those who didn't attend college:

No college:
Christie 31%
Paul 9%

Attended college:
Christie 19%
Paul 17%

How can Christie be cleaning up among those who didn't attend college, yet also be doing better among those with more money?  Don't people who attended college make more money?  Maybe the answer is that Paul attracts a lot of youngs, who are more likely to have attended college, but are still young enough not to be making much $ yet.

On the Dem. side, they also asked who your second choice would be:

Biden 37%
Clinton 16%
Cuomo 14%
Warren 14%
O'Malley 8%

[Joe Biden 2020]

Very interesting results.  A lot of it right now, though, is still name recognition, so to answer Scott's question, I expect Christie's margin to decrease over the next 11 months until the mid terms are over and the primary campaign officially begins.  I suspect, though, that Christie will maintain a 5-10% lead over Paul and Ryan for at least the next two years.

[Mr. Morden]

Very interesting results.  A lot of it right now, though, is still name recognition, so to answer Scott's question, I expect Christie's margin to decrease over the next 11 months until the mid terms are over and the primary campaign officially begins.

I'm not even sure that Christie has the highest name recognition of the Republicans being polled here.  (Could still be Ryan, given that he was on a national ticket last year.)

According to most polls of national favorability, every single one of the Republicans being included in this poll has >50% name recognition already, which makes this a rather unusual Republican race.....at least at this very early stage.  There'll surely be some additional names who aren't as well known yet.  And of course, there are a few folks like Jindal who are already making some moves towards running, but aren't as well known, and tend not to be included in these polls.