CA-Field Poll: Gov. Brown (D) leads jungle-primary with 50%+

[Tender Branson]

The upcoming June statewide election will be an open primary. This means that candidates from all parties – Democrats, Republicans and other parties – will be listed together on one ballot and voters can chose to vote for a candidate from any party. I am going to read the names of some of the likely candidates for Governor next year and please tell me whom you would choose if the election were being held today. Suppose the choices were (NAMES AND PARTIES READ IN RANDOM ORDER). For whom would you vote if the election for Governor were being held today?

52% Jerry Brown (D)
11% Abel Maldonado (R)
  9% Tim Donnelly (R)
  3% Neel Kashkari (R)

Image ratings of the four potential gubernatorial candidates (among registered voters)

56-37 Jerry Brown (D)
18-20 Abel Maldonado (R)
12-08 Tim Donnelly (R)
09-08 Neel Kashkari (R)

Trend of job performance ratings of Jerry Brown during his current term as Governor (among registered voters)

December 2013: 58-33 approve

http://www.field.com/fieldpollonline/subscribers/Rls2453.pdf

[Sbane]

Ooh, if Jerry Brown wins the election in June, that could lead to dire consequences for Democrats downballot.

[Miles]

Ooh, if Jerry Brown wins the election in June, that could lead to dire consequences for Democrats downballot.

Its a bit different from the Louisiana system in that there's a runoff regardless.

[Хahar 🤔]

Yeah, there will be a general election in November no matter what, so the gubernatorial primary only determines the Republican sacrificial offering.

[IceSpear]

Ooh, if Jerry Brown wins the election in June, that could lead to dire consequences for Democrats downballot.

Its a bit different from the Louisiana system in that there's a runoff regardless.

That's pretty stupid. If you're going to do a jungle primary, getting 50% should seal your victory.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

LOL, Jerry Brown leads among Tea Partiers!

Brown 26%
Donnelly 19%
Maldonado 15%
Kashkari 5%

[Nichlemn]

Ooh, if Jerry Brown wins the election in June, that could lead to dire consequences for Democrats downballot.

Its a bit different from the Louisiana system in that there's a runoff regardless.

That's pretty stupid. If you're going to do a jungle primary, getting 50% should seal your victory.

Be careful what you wish for - whichever election that isn't held on the normal November date will usually have a lower, more Republican turnout. For instance, in 2012, the jungle primary had less than half the turnout of the general election, and Democrats won the popular vote by only 8 points (compared to 23 in November). Two Republican incumbents (Lungren and Bono Mack) lost in November despite winning >50% in the jungle primary. Maybe turnout would be a fair bit higher if the elections could be decisive, but Republicans would still presumably get an advantage.