AR-PPP: Pryor, Cotton tied

[Tender Branson]

44-44

The PPP poll, a robo-call survey of 1,004 Arkansans from Dec 13 to Dec. 15, was mainly done, apparently, to test basic leanings on raising the minimum wage from $7.25 an hour to $10 an hour. It found superficial support for that by a margin of 52-38.

http://brummett.arkansasonline.com/index.php/2013/12/16/all-tied-up-for-senate-and-governor/

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

...Yet 44% of Arkansans will vote for someone who opposes it.

[RogueBeaver]

We can't get any independent polling in this race. This was for a Dem group, originally commissioned to test the minimum wage question. In October local pollsters showed a tie with awful trends and approvals for Pryor, and we're to believe that Obamacare hasn't budged Pryor's numbers at all in 2 months? Really?

[windjammer]

We can't get any independent polling in this race. This was for a Dem group, originally commissioned to test the minimum wage question. In October local pollsters showed a tie with awful trends and approvals for Pryor, and we're to believe that Obamacare hasn't budged Pryor's numbers at all in 2 months? Really?

To be fair, Cotton trailed Pryor in the last PPP poll by a 4 point margin. So, there is an improvement for him. But I think that Pryor is trailing him by 2 point.

[NewYorkExpress]

I'd say Cotton's by 5...

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I like this poll, the others were push polling for Hutchinson and Cotton. Hopefully, Pryor can pull it out cause Ross should win. Tim Hutchinson bad luck on bro Asa.

[morgieb]

I have my doubts on the partisanship of this poll, but I suppose this is better news.

[CatoMinor]

...Yet 44% of Arkansans will vote for someone who opposes it.

For the same reasons Catholics in the Northeast vote for pro-choice candidates, why staunchly anti-war liberals continue to be Obama apologists, and why Midwestern farmers are not all Farmer-Labor types. A combination of partisan loyalty and the fact that not everyone is a single issue voter. 

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

...Yet 44% of Arkansans will vote for someone who opposes it.

For the same reasons Catholics in the Northeast vote for pro-choice candidates,

Catholics tend to be a swing voter bloc in general and are generally very liberal on social issues in the Northeast.  Many of them, while accepting the social teachings of the Church, don't believe that they should be legislated.  There are plenty of Catholics who support legal abortion rights, especially in New England.

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Many of those staunchly anti-war liberals support Obama because they don't want to vote for a third party candidate which will reduce their ballot to nothing more than a protest vote.  Economic issues also tend to take precedent, which is why I personally supported Obama in spite of my disagreements with some aspects of his foreign policy.

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It's interesting that you mention party loyalty in a thread about Arkansas.  If Arkansas voters were voting along party lines, Pryor would probably be leading in this poll.  But my point is that too often people vote against the candidate whose policies they agree with most and would benefit from the most.  From my perspective, the GOP doesn't even pretend to care about rural or working class voters.  Romney certainly didn't.  They voted for him anyway.  I can entertain theories for why this could be the case, but I don't think that will add anything new to the conversation.

[DrScholl]

It's possible that the effects of the Obamacare rollout are wearing off, as it seems as if Pryor would be down a few points if it was actually a factor. At this point, I think we are headed toward a neutral cycle, which is good for Pryor, since he could likely survive on ancestral Democratic support, which would be enough to win if the race is narrow.

[RogueBeaver]

To be very blunt, those hardcore Dem Silents are no longer around. Sean Trende pointed that out back in August. Their passing was a key factor in AR's Republicanization.