CO-PPP: No love for Hillary

[Mr. Morden]

It is quite possible that Obama's absence from the ticket could revert us to turnout models that are less-favourable for the Dems.

Or less favorable to the Dems in states like Colorado while more favorable in states like Kentucky.  The map doesn't have to look the same as 2008 or 2012, even if Clinton wins, since Clinton is not Obama.

At present, the most recent polling has Christie leading Clinton in PA and CO, while losing to her in FL and AR.  Not sure that will hold up, but it would be a fun map.

[Mr. Morden]

The gender gap is big.  A 26 point differential between the sexes on Christie vs. Clinton, and a whopping 33 point differential for Paul vs. Clinton:

Christie vs. Clinton:
men: Christie +20
women: Clinton +6

Paul vs. Clinton:
men: Paul +19
women: Clinton +14

Christie vs. Clinton by age:
18-45: Christie +2
46-65: Christie +9
65+: Christie +13

Also, looks like Republicans are a bit more likely to be football fans than Dems.  Have we seen that in other polls?

[Mr. Morden]

Hell, even if she wins all the Gore/Kerry states and does as well as their best numbers in the South (45% in West Virginia and 46% in Tennessee and 47% in Missouri) WITH Ohio, she still loses (provided she loses Iowa, which is as bad as CO right now and the house stays R)....even if she is at 48-49% in VA,FL and NC. If Democrats simply focus on the West Coast and consolidating the Northeast+Florida, they lose.

No, that's still a win:

Isn't that 269-269 (Kerry nor Gore won Nevada)?

It's 269-269 if Nevada goes R.  But if it goes D, as in the above map, it's 275-263 Dem win.

[Mr. Morden]

2020 reapportionment of course won't happen by the 2020 election.  2024 would be the first presidential election using the 2020 census numbers.