McClatchy/Marist national: Clinton leads Christie by 3; others by double digits

[pbrower2a]

Why are they polling Palin? And how is she beating Cruz?  Also, the general election looks to be getting closer and closer, though this could be do to Christie's reelection and Obama's popularity. 

She is better known than Ted Cruz. The downside -- she is known and disliked in many circles. When she was a supposed candidate for President about four years ago I noticed that the larger the number of non-native speakers of English there are, the worse she did. Her mangled English confuses anyone who has English as a second language. If you have ever talked to anyone whose first language is anything other than English, you will recognize the wisdom of clinging to the formal register, whether the language has many similarities to English (example: Spanish) or very few (example: Chinese). It does not matter how proficient the non-native speaker is in English. People learn foreign languages from phrase books and textbooks. Failing to account for such is an insult. 

Such was not a matter of political conservatism versus liberalism. I used Mike Huckabee as a contrast -- one might disagree with him but one can easily understand him.     

[pbrower2a]

This is about what a 60-40 split of the popular vote gets Hillary Clinton against Sarah Palin:

Analogue: LBJ vs. Goldwater.

[pbrower2a]

I see Palin doing very well in the Deep South, I don't really think landslides are possible in today's environment. And it's hard to see Palin getting only 40% of the vote remember McCain/Palin got 46% even with Bush's approval rating in the teens and with her being completely unqualified for the office. I see more like 55-45 win for Clinton.

America is polarized enough that a 60-40 landslide is practically impossible. People excuse spectacular incompetence so long as the politician tells them what they want to believe.

That said, Sarah Palin (1) really has no chance, and (2) showed beyond any doubt that she could not communicate with people whose first language isn't English. She did about as badly as other Republicans in states in which such people are rare, but she did horribly among Hispanics and Asians. She projected to lose Texas to Barack Obama if she were the GOP nominee in 2012.

The map showed what I thought a 60-40 split looked like for a Democratic nominee for President.  To get such a landslide a Democratic nominee would have to max out in the Northeast, the Great Lakes, and the West Coast (like Obama in 2008) while breaking even in other states.  I didn't say that such was likely. 55-45 is about as strong a landslide as I can see anyone imaginably getting.