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  NJ-Monmouth: Christie LEADS Hillary by 3, landslides against Cuomo
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Author Topic: NJ-Monmouth: Christie LEADS Hillary by 3, landslides against Cuomo  (Read 1758 times)
Tender Branson
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« on: December 11, 2013, 05:01:25 am »

698 registered voters:

Who would you vote for if the candidates were [NAMES WERE ROTATED] Chris Christie the
Republican and Hillary Clinton the Democrat?


46-43 Christie

Who would you vote for if the candidates were [NAMES WERE ROTATED] Chris Christie the
Republican and Andrew Cuomo the Democrat?


52-33 Christie

...

The Monmouth University/Asbury Park Press Poll was conducted by telephone with 802 New Jersey adults from December 4 to 8, 2013. This sample has a margin of error of + 3.5 percent. The poll was conducted by the Monmouth University Polling Institute and originally published by the Asbury Park Press and its sister publications (Courier-Post, Courier News, Daily Journal, Daily Record, and Home News Tribune).

http://www.monmouth.edu/assets/0/32212254770/32212254991/32212254992/32212254994/32212254995/30064771087/a45d5f71-6436-48a0-884e-ad8769569aea.pdf
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: December 11, 2013, 05:31:21 am »

With all the latest polls (state + nationwide), it looks like Clinton could win the popular vote, but Christie the Electoral College.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #2 on: December 11, 2013, 05:32:59 am »

Uni poll.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #3 on: December 11, 2013, 05:37:41 am »


Okk ..., but:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2013/governor/nj/new_jersey_governor_christie_vs_buono-3411.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2013/senate/nj/new_jersey_senate_special_election_lonegan_vs_booker-3938.html

Also: Obama+15 in NJ (he won by 17).
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: December 11, 2013, 06:09:22 am »

This is the current Christie vs. Clinton map, based on the polling so far:



Green => new polls out today or in the next days
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opebo
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« Reply #5 on: December 11, 2013, 06:58:28 am »

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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #6 on: December 11, 2013, 06:58:34 am »

With all the latest polls (state + nationwide), it looks like Clinton could win the popular vote, but Christie the Electoral College.

I don't know about that.  The trend is that with Christie vs. Clinton, the North swings Republican, while the South swings Democratic.  If Christie wins NJ and PA, but it's offset by Clinton winning FL and AR.

In any case, we've just had a lot of polls from northern states recently, which exaggerates Christie's strength, because the North trends R with Christie as the nominee.
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opebo
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« Reply #7 on: December 11, 2013, 07:05:14 am »

With all the latest polls (state + nationwide), it looks like Clinton could win the popular vote, but Christie the Electoral College.

I don't know about that.  The trend is that with Christie vs. Clinton, the North swings Republican, while the South swings Democratic.  If Christie wins NJ and PA, but it's offset by Clinton winning FL and AR.

In any case, we've just had a lot of polls from northern states recently, which exaggerates Christie's strength, because the North trends R with Christie as the nominee.

Actually Ohio is the key.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #8 on: December 11, 2013, 06:02:04 pm »


This looks like a landslide win for Hillary in my opinion, am I wrong?

Hillary losing Iowa, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Virginia and Colorado (from 2012), but winning Louisiana & Arkansas instead.

OK, landslide was obviously the wrong word lol, but a Hillary victory at least. Tongue As long as she retains Florida and Ohio, everything should be fine. Smiley
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #9 on: December 11, 2013, 06:10:35 pm »


This looks like a landslide win for Hillary in my opinion, am I wrong?

Hillary losing Iowa, Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Virginia and Colorado (from 2012), but winning Louisiana & Arkansas instead.

OK, landslide was obviously the wrong word lol, but a Hillary victory at least. Tongue As long as she retains Florida and Ohio, everything should be fine. Smiley

284-254.

If you remove AR and LA she only wins 270-268.
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morgieb
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« Reply #10 on: December 11, 2013, 06:16:58 pm »

Oh wow.
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« Reply #11 on: December 11, 2013, 06:20:01 pm »

33% is awfully low for Cuomo, there is no way he'd get less than Buono, who basically hit the floor for Democrats in the state. I don't think he'd even lose the state at all, it's too Democratic federally.
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Beet
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« Reply #12 on: December 11, 2013, 07:56:10 pm »

Buono ran a Staten Island landfill of a campaign. For those who said "oh it doesn't matter she was going to lose anyway" well clearly it did matter. Buono could have done Christie real damage by overperforming low expectations. Instead she's been his biggest help yet.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #13 on: December 11, 2013, 11:53:25 pm »

If Christie couldn't even beat Hillary in the exit poll during his landslide re-election in a low turnout off year election, why would he be able to with a presidential year electorate?
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jfern
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« Reply #14 on: December 12, 2013, 01:23:32 am »

LOL, Barbara Lee is more electable than Cuomo.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #15 on: December 12, 2013, 01:35:54 am »

What is Cuomo's name recognition in New Jersey?
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DS0816
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« Reply #16 on: December 12, 2013, 01:47:13 am »

I think people should just call the 2016 U.S. presidential election NOW.

Chris Christie wins Republican pickups in New Jersey and Pennsylvania, both of which haven't carried for Team Red since 1988, and that they were conspicuously more blue than how the nation voted in 2012.

Hillary Clinton wins Democratic pickups in Arkansas and Louisiana, which denied Barack Obama carriage in 2008 and 2012 due to him not being Hillary Clinton and not being white, and they both performed conspicuously more red than how the nation voted in 2012.

Chris Christie wins Republican pickups in newer bellwethers Virginia and Colorado, as well as quieter bellwether Iowa, while Hillary Clinton carries as Democratic holds long-established bellwethers Florida and Ohio.


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jfern
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« Reply #17 on: December 12, 2013, 02:02:43 am »

What is Cuomo's name recognition in New Jersey?


It's got to be fairly high. Look at how much of NJ is in the New York City media market.

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WeAreDoomed
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« Reply #18 on: December 13, 2013, 11:06:04 am »

Why is Cuomo not polling well?
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #19 on: December 13, 2013, 11:28:36 am »


He's not campaigning and he isn't getting much attention.
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WeAreDoomed
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« Reply #20 on: December 17, 2013, 01:30:37 pm »

I want to see a Deleware poll, that could be interesting.
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morgieb
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« Reply #21 on: December 17, 2013, 11:00:54 pm »

I want to see a Deleware poll, that could be interesting.
Not really - Christie's good numbers here are down to him being a very popular governor.
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HokeyDood
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« Reply #22 on: December 19, 2013, 12:14:08 pm »

Christie won't be as popular here once the national GOP gets to him. 
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WeAreDoomed
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« Reply #23 on: December 19, 2013, 01:40:18 pm »

Christie won't be as popular here once the national GOP gets to him. 
According to Gallup, 58% of Republicans have an unfavorable view of the Tea Party. Imagine how high that will be in two years.
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WeAreDoomed
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« Reply #24 on: December 19, 2013, 01:50:28 pm »

Christie won't be as popular here once the national GOP gets to him. 
According to Gallup, 58% of Republicans have an unfavorable view of the Tea Party. Imagine how high that will be in two years.
I believe the high unemployment number will hurt him here, like what happened to Dukakis in 1988 in MA.
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