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  MI-PPP: Hillary barely ahead in Michigan
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Author Topic: MI-PPP: Hillary barely ahead in Michigan  (Read 972 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: December 11, 2013, 12:15:58 pm »

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 43%
Chris Christie .................................................. 40%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 46%
Jeb Bush......................................................... 42%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 48%
Rand Paul ....................................................... 39%

Hillary Clinton.................................................. 49%
Ted Cruz ......................................................... 38%

...

Would you support or oppose raising the minimum wage in Michigan to $10 an hour?

Support ........................................................... 57%
Oppose ........................................................... 35%

...

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_MI_121113.pdf
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Scott
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« Reply #1 on: December 11, 2013, 02:22:59 pm »

Democrats better grow a pair on the minimum wage issue by 2016, but I doubt they will.
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #2 on: December 11, 2013, 07:13:47 pm »

Strangely quiet around these parts...
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Maxwell
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« Reply #3 on: December 11, 2013, 07:16:02 pm »

Strangely quiet around these parts...

That's because PPP is a hack pollster, obviously Tongue
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #4 on: December 11, 2013, 07:20:49 pm »

Strangely quiet around these parts...

That's because PPP is a hack pollster, obviously Tongue

"HILLARY IS UNKNOWN! HER NUMBERS WILL SOAR ONCE PEOPLE REMEMBER HER!"
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tmthforu94
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« Reply #5 on: December 11, 2013, 07:25:36 pm »

These numbers don't really fall in line with what we are seeing nationally.
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bedstuy
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« Reply #6 on: December 11, 2013, 07:25:48 pm »

Strangely quiet around these parts...

That's because PPP is a hack pollster, obviously Tongue

"HILLARY IS UNKNOWN! HER NUMBERS WILL SOAR ONCE PEOPLE REMEMBER HER!"

Maybe nobody cares because Michigan isn't a swing state and the election isn't happening until 2016.  
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Communist Is Not An Insult
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« Reply #7 on: December 11, 2013, 07:46:16 pm »
« Edited: December 11, 2013, 07:53:04 pm by ShadowOfTheWave »

Strangely quiet around these parts...

Don't get excited. This same thing happened in 2008, Obama consistently polled only a few points ahead of McCain in MI, so you guys said McCain could win it and it was a swing state. But McCain never polled above like say 44%, and Obama's ceiling was higher. If a candidate's poll numbers vary from around 45-49%, then a 46-44% lead over an opponent doesn't indicate a swing state when the opponent's numbers don't move. Look at the numbers now, at least 49% of the state will consider voting for Hillary. The most one of your guys polls at is 42%. If a GOP candidate can poll above 45%, then it might be winnable.
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #8 on: December 11, 2013, 07:49:36 pm »

At the end of election day in 2016, Michigan won't go Republican, so it's pointless to argue about something that always turns out the same. Romney was supposed to win, as was McCain (and he only supposedly lost it because he pulled out), as was Bush in 2004 and it didn't happen. Too many unionized households and a large African-American electorate.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #9 on: December 11, 2013, 10:24:44 pm »

Enormous gender gap, as we've seen in many of these Clinton vs. X 2016 polls.

Christie beats Clinton by 14 points among men.
Clinton beats Christie by 18 points among women.
32 point total gap

Christie vs. Clinton by age:
18-45: Clinton +6
46-65: Clinton +2
65+: Clinton +3
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jfern
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« Reply #10 on: December 11, 2013, 10:39:29 pm »

Hillary is supposedly super electable and she's only 4 points up over a Bush in Michigan? It's time for some new blood.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #11 on: December 11, 2013, 11:55:56 pm »

Hillary is supposedly super electable and she's only 4 points up over a Bush in Michigan? It's time for some new blood.

There's more to a poll than the margin. Bush is at 42%. It's very rare for any Republican to fall below that in Michigan. Even McCain got 41% after publicly blowing off and abandoning the state.
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dmmidmi
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« Reply #12 on: December 12, 2013, 02:38:49 pm »

This is what jumps out...

1. How on earth are state house and senate Democrats only -2 in approval? They've sat by and gotten walked all over. Not much else they can do, but still.

2. Who are the 10% of MSU fans who disapprove of Mark Dantonio's job? Are they nuts?

3. U of M fans are more likely to be Democrats than Republicans--the reverse is true of Michigan State fans. Given that MSU's fanbase is largely in Mid-Michigan (Ingham, Eaton, Clinton, Shiawassee counties), and U of M's appeal is statewide, I'm not entirely sure why that's the case.

4. Jeb Bush pulls 19%(!) of African American support against Hillary.
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The party left me.
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« Reply #13 on: December 12, 2013, 02:47:13 pm »

Strangely quiet around these parts...

That's because PPP is a hack pollster, obviously Tongue

"HILLARY IS UNKNOWN! HER NUMBERS WILL SOAR ONCE PEOPLE REMEMBER HER!"

You wanna take shots at me, do it on a board I'm on instead of sneak dissing.

You can focus on 2016 all you want. While you're thinking Christie I'll be thinking Peters and Schauer.
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Kevin
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« Reply #14 on: December 12, 2013, 08:47:19 pm »
« Edited: December 12, 2013, 08:49:16 pm by Kevin »

These numbers don't really fall in line with what we are seeing nationally.

What do you mean? Not criticizing you I just want to hear your take?

IMO from what I see Hillary's poll numbers are being dragged down by Obama's sagging approvals.

Ex. first polling in CO showed Clinton down against Christie, then the same in PA, IA, VA, and NJ. Now she's only a couple of points ahead in MI-a state Pres. Obama won 54-44% of Romney last November. She's also preforming no better nationally against the more fringe GOP candidates(Paul, Cruz) then Obama did against Romney.

I must say gee 2013 has been a hell of a political roller-coaster for both parties! I can't remember a time(in my comparatively short period) that I've followed politics where things have been as unpredictable as they have been now.
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henster
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« Reply #15 on: December 12, 2013, 11:56:43 pm »

Only reason Christie even looks competitive in these states is the high Dem and black support all they know about Christie is Hurricane Sandy and that he hugged President Obama. Come 2016 those voters will come home to Clinton and we'll see her leading comfortably in states she should be.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #16 on: December 13, 2013, 06:45:53 am »

Only reason Christie even looks competitive in these states is the high Dem and black support all they know about Christie is Hurricane Sandy and that he hugged President Obama. Come 2016 those voters will come home to Clinton and we'll see her leading comfortably in states she should be.

This. Really spot on I think.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #17 on: December 13, 2013, 07:06:43 am »

4. Jeb Bush pulls 19%(!) of African American support against Hillary.

Look at the sample size of Blacks: The margin of error is 10% here.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #18 on: December 13, 2013, 11:06:33 am »

Strangely quiet around these parts...

Don't get excited. This same thing happened in 2008, Obama consistently polled only a few points ahead of McCain in MI, so you guys said McCain could win it and it was a swing state. But McCain never polled above like say 44%, and Obama's ceiling was higher. If a candidate's poll numbers vary from around 45-49%, then a 46-44% lead over an opponent doesn't indicate a swing state when the opponent's numbers don't move. Look at the numbers now, at least 49% of the state will consider voting for Hillary. The most one of your guys polls at is 42%. If a GOP candidate can poll above 45%, then it might be winnable.

Indeed, a good parallel was to some polls that showed Barack Obama up 45-43 in North Dakota or South Dakota in 2008. He ended up getting the 45% and nothing else.

Republicans are going to win their base in Michigan in 2014 and 2016, but winning anything more is going to depend upon unusually-strong candidates or gross failures by Democrats. Winning only the base  (means losing 56-44 in Michigan for either Party).
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