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  Gay Marriage will be legalized in which of the following countries by 2020?
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Question: Gay Marriage will be fully legalized in which of the following countries by 2020?
#1Australia
#2Mexico
#3Finland
#4Germany
#5Ireland
#6Italy
#7Japan
#8Phillipines
#9South Korea
#10Turkey
#11China
#12Israel
#13Russia
#14Venezuela
#15Nepal
#16Qatar
#17Ethiopia
#18Kenya
#19Chile
#20Bolivia
#21Guatemala
#22Dominican Republic
#23Haiti
#24Jamaica
#25Greece
#26Poland
#27Lebanon
#28Georgia
#29Armenia
#30Azerbaijan
#31Vietnam
#32Laos
#33Cambodia
#34Thailand
#35Indonesia
#36India
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Author Topic: Gay Marriage will be legalized in which of the following countries by 2020?  (Read 2698 times)
Blue3
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« on: December 14, 2013, 11:14:59 pm »

Gay Marriage will be fully legalized in which of the following countries by 2020?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #1 on: December 15, 2013, 02:29:45 am »

You forgot Austria in this one.

Of course it's not likely in the next 5 years, because the VP is in the government (unless they "evolve more" on the issue).

But in the 2018 election, who knows, maybe a center-left SP-Greens-NEOS government could be formed, to avoid any government participation of a strengthened FP ...

All 3 parties are in favour of full marriage rights for LGBTs.
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Horus
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« Reply #2 on: December 15, 2013, 02:38:12 am »

Germany, Finland, possibly Australia if they have someone other than Abbott as PM by that time. Longshots are Mexico, Chile and Israel.
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Frodo
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« Reply #3 on: December 15, 2013, 02:43:29 am »

Australia and the various European countries listed here are the only likely candidates I can think of that will legalize gay marriage by the end of this decade.  Maybe Israel too, but given the strong ultra-Orthodox presence in that country, I am not hopeful. 

Everywhere else outside the developed world, forget about it. 
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أندرو
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« Reply #4 on: December 15, 2013, 12:22:11 pm »

I'd imagine a few South American nations will legalise it by then.
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Yeahsayyeah
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« Reply #5 on: December 15, 2013, 12:34:53 pm »

By 2020, in Germany "registered life partnerships" probably will have the same rights as married heterosexual couples, but it is possible, that they will not be officially called "marriages" for symbolic reasons (appeasement of large parts of the CDU/CSU) even then.
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #6 on: December 15, 2013, 02:07:59 pm »

Gay marriage will be legal in every EU country thanks to a ruling from the European Court of Human Rights.
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Hifly
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« Reply #7 on: December 15, 2013, 02:09:59 pm »

Gay marriage will be legal in every EU country thanks to a ruling from the European Court of Human Rights.

Umm you do realise that they've already ruled that an EU state is not obliged to legalise SSM because keeping marriage between one man and one woman does not constitute discrimination?
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Famous Mortimer
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« Reply #8 on: December 15, 2013, 02:48:47 pm »

Are they not allowed to ever rule on the issue again?

Because it's almost certain they would rule differently.
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Hifly
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« Reply #9 on: December 15, 2013, 02:52:42 pm »

Are they not allowed to ever rule on the issue again?

Because it's almost certain they would rule differently.

And under what precedent would they rule differently?
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Swedish Austerity Cheese
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« Reply #10 on: December 15, 2013, 02:56:32 pm »

Are they not allowed to ever rule on the issue again?

Because it's almost certain they would rule differently.

Not with-in this decade they will not.
Most of the Union will have implemented it anyway though. Gay-rights is an unstoppable rolling ball in Western Europe. (And hifly can whine about that as much as he wants.)

Anyway, it will be legalized in more places than most of you think.  
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #11 on: December 15, 2013, 04:11:17 pm »

The ones I see doing it by the end of the decade:

*Luxembourg
*Finland
*Ireland
*Germany
*Austria
*Colombia
*Cuba
*Venezuela
*Mexico
*Ecuador
*Czech Republic
*Nepal
*Vietnam
*Philippines
*Taiwan
*Australia
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« Reply #12 on: December 15, 2013, 06:37:39 pm »

I think it's going to be a while until Germany actually calls it marriage. There will likely be full equality, but this is one of the more difficult countries in Western Europe on this issue.

Which is odd considering public opinion is comparable to the rest of Europe.
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Stranger in a strange land
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« Reply #13 on: December 16, 2013, 07:00:52 pm »

Taiwan should be on the list. It will legalize gay marriage long before many of the countries you listed, and might well be the first place in Asia to do so.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #14 on: December 16, 2013, 07:19:05 pm »

Germany, Finland, possibly Australia if they have someone other than Abbott as PM by that time. Longshots are Mexico, Chile and Israel.

I would be stunned if it isn't legal in Australia by 2020, even if Abbott remains as PM for the next seven years.  Given how quickly public opinion has moved on this, it seems inevitable.  Whatever Abbott personally thinks, at some point, the political calculation would be to just allow it to pass with a conscience vote, and get the issue off the table.
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eric82oslo
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« Reply #15 on: December 17, 2013, 01:56:25 am »
« Edited: December 17, 2013, 02:08:16 am by eric82oslo »

By 2020, in Germany "registered life partnerships" probably will have the same rights as married heterosexual couples, but it is possible, that they will not be officially called "marriages" for symbolic reasons (appeasement of large parts of the CDU/CSU) even then.

How can all of you German members claim this, when it's already clear since 2012 that about half the members of the Bundestag already fully support gay marriage? It seems to me that all parliamentarian parties except CDU/CSU now have thrown their full-blown support behind the idea. The only reason why the Free Democratic Party didn't support it when it came up for a Bundestag vote in 2012, was their governing coalition with CDU/CSU back then, which pretty much made it impossible for them to legally endorse it. If CDU/CSU makes a catastrophic general election in 2017, which I think is very much a possibility, there should already be a huge majority in the Bundestag in order to legalize gay marriage. Although I honestly think it could become a reality way before that, perhaps in 2015. The Social Democrats will make a lot of noise in order to achieve this goal. It's probably one of their top 5 priorities right now.

"The Green Party, the Social Democratic Party, and the Left Party support same-sex marriage and voted for a defeated bill to legalise it. The Free Democratic Party also supports it but voted against during the 2009-2013 government because CDU/CSU opposes it. On 28 June 2012, a Green Party motion in the Bundestag (Federal Diet) to legalise same-sex marriage was defeated by a vote of 309 to 260, with 12 abstentions. The motion was meant to give parity to same-sex couples in adoption and for tax purposes. Members of the ruling coalition of Union parties and Free Democratic Party voted against the proposal while opposition parties Social Democratic Party, Greens, and The Left supported it. On 22 March 2013, the Bundesrat passed an initiative proposed by 5 states, which would open marriage to same-sex couples. The bill was sent to the Bundestag for a vote, however, the ruling coalition was still the same as in 2012 when the previous proposal was defeated. Federal elections were held on 22 September 2013, after which a new government coalition needs to be formed. The new Bundestag, which started on 22 October, again consists of a theoretical majority of parties that favour LGBT rights (SPD, Die Linke and The Greens). Die Linke plans to bring up a vote on legalising same-sex marriage.

A February 2013 poll found 74% of the German people supporting same-sex marriage, with 23% against. Support was recorded to be strongest among Greens and Social Democratic (SPD) voters, but even among voters of Chancellor Angela Merkel's governing Christian Democrats (CDU) almost two-thirds were in favour, the poll showed. A May 2013 Ipsos poll found that 67% of respondents were in favour of same-sex marriage and another 12% supported other forms of recognition for same-sex couples. According to the Ifop poll, conducted in May 2013, 74% of Germans supported allowing same-sex couples to marry and adopt children."

When 3 out of 4 Germans, including 2 out of 3 CDU/CSU voters already support gay marriage, it's just a matter of time, in my opinion, before it'll become a legislative reality.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #16 on: December 17, 2013, 02:56:18 am »

I would be very surprised if Greens or Left didn't tried to legalize it. They all have to win from it.

Either SPD votes against and that will hurt them much, either they vote for and this bring trouble in the coalition.
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Swedish Austerity Cheese
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« Reply #17 on: December 17, 2013, 06:57:55 am »

Considering Merkels will to be moderate and compromise, I actually think she's much more likely to make CDU buldge on the same sex marriage issue than SDP, but then I guess the Germans would know that better than us.

But isn't there also the possibility of the German Constitutional Court weighing in on the issue and deciding it in same-sex marriage favour?
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Franzl
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« Reply #18 on: December 17, 2013, 07:16:20 am »

You never know what Merkel will do. Nobody thought she would abolish conscription or nuclear power either.

That said, her compromise here will likely be full equality in everything but name, possibly including adoption rights. The terminology just doesn't seem to be relevant here, and even the center-left seems to be focused on equality before the law, whatever you want to call it.
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Hifly
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« Reply #19 on: December 17, 2013, 03:27:52 pm »
« Edited: December 17, 2013, 03:29:29 pm by hifly15 »

By 2020, in Germany "registered life partnerships" probably will have the same rights as married heterosexual couples, but it is possible, that they will not be officially called "marriages" for symbolic reasons (appeasement of large parts of the CDU/CSU) even then.

How can all of you German members claim this, when it's already clear since 2012 that about half the members of the Bundestag already fully support gay marriage? ........
When 3 out of 4 Germans, including 2 out of 3 CDU/CSU voters already support gay marriage, it's just a matter of time, in my opinion, before it'll become a legislative reality.

If you are so concerned about redefining marriage (in a country who's citizenship you don't even hold), why don't you write a letter to Dr Merkel explaining your issues.
If her office can be bothered to pay the postage fees to Sweden you may get a reply and maybe if she has a lot of time on her hands she might even personally sign it!
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Sol
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« Reply #20 on: December 17, 2013, 03:43:08 pm »

By 2020, in Germany "registered life partnerships" probably will have the same rights as married heterosexual couples, but it is possible, that they will not be officially called "marriages" for symbolic reasons (appeasement of large parts of the CDU/CSU) even then.

How can all of you German members claim this, when it's already clear since 2012 that about half the members of the Bundestag already fully support gay marriage? ........
When 3 out of 4 Germans, including 2 out of 3 CDU/CSU voters already support gay marriage, it's just a matter of time, in my opinion, before it'll become a legislative reality.

If you are so concerned about redefining marriage (in a country who's citizenship you don't even hold), why don't you write a letter to Dr Merkel explaining your issues.
If her office can be bothered to pay the postage fees to Sweden you may get a reply and maybe if she has a lot of time on her hands she might even personally sign it!
The reason why folks are concerned about this is because It's a human rights issue.
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Fmr President & Senator Polnut
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« Reply #21 on: December 17, 2013, 03:57:50 pm »

Hifly is part of an angry, embittered minority (and it's a minority) who think this move to provide loving and committed couples the full legal equality of marriage is some sort of affront or offense before ... God? Because lord knows, marriage has never been more complicated than that. Lol

Those couples will soon enjoy those right, while those people spend their time attending protests that fewer and fewer people care about.
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morgieb
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« Reply #22 on: December 17, 2013, 04:07:47 pm »

WRT Australia, it's a guarantee if Abbott loses re-election (though if he wins in 2016 and loses in 2019 it might be too soon to pass it), but I reckon he and a few of his minions will be stubborn enough to supress a right to a free vote.

Very surprised Germany doesn't have it, though I guess the CDU would be fairly conservative on social matters (I could be wrong though).
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Hifly
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« Reply #23 on: December 17, 2013, 04:15:40 pm »

Very surprised Germany doesn't have it, though I guess the CDU would be fairly conservative on social matters (I could be wrong though).

Yep, the CDU is a socially conservative, Christian party. However, in Germany the focus is more geared towards full equality before the law (including full adoption rights) for same-sex couples as opposed to legalising same-sex marriage.
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TheDeadFlagBlues
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« Reply #24 on: December 17, 2013, 04:23:47 pm »

Foreigner and potential infiltrator hilfy15 is forever banned from speaking about gay rights in the US.
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