IA-Quinnipiac: Christie 45%, Clinton 40%

[Tender Branson]

2016 President Race

In an early look at the 2016 presidential race, New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie leads former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton 45 - 40 percent.

There is a large gender gap as women back Clinton 49 - 39 percent while men back Christie 51 - 30 percent. Independent voters back the Republican 44 - 35 percent.

In another matchup, Clinton gets 45 percent to 44 percent for U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky. She tops U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas 48 - 41 percent and leads former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush 47 - 40 percent.

Christie would make a good president, Iowa voters say 46 - 30 percent and say the same about Clinton 53 - 42 percent. Paul gets a negative 38 - 42 percent on whether he would make a good president. Cruz, Bush and Vice President Joseph Biden all get bigger negative scores on how they would do in the Oval Office.

"New Jersey Gov. Christopher Christie pulls ahead of Secretary Hillary Clinton among Iowa voters. The change from the last time Quinnipiac University polled Iowa, July 22 when they were tied 41 - 41 percent, reflects a general improvement for Republicans, almost certainly related to the controversy over 'Obamacare,'" Brown said.

From December 10 - 15, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,617 registered voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/iowa/release-detail?ReleaseID=1989

The weighted sample is:

28% R
27% D
40% I
  4% Other/DK/NA

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/ia/ia12172013_demos_47gbnw.pdf

[Tender Branson]

Harper Polling said virtually the same not long ago.

Also:

The Des Moines Register put out a poll this weekend and tested favorability of the 2016 candidates.

Christie was at 44-29 (+15) among all adults polled, while Clinton was only at 50-45 (+5).

Which would also point to a slight lead for Christie.

[Tender Branson]

Some unskewing of the poll with my calculator:

Based on the 2012 Exit Poll electorate for Iowa (33% D, 33% R, 34% I) Christie would still lead 45-42.

[Tender Branson]

This is the current Clinton vs. Christie map, based on the latest polling in each state (I only used polls from the 2nd half of 2013):

Green => new poll (PPP) out in the next days

States with a light shade have not been polled, but the 2012 result is used.

...

284 EV - Clinton
254 EV - Christie

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

How in the world does Christie have a five point lead??

[Tender Branson]

How in the world does Christie have a five point lead??

Mostly because of this:

Independent voters back the Republican 44 - 35 percent.

Which could be because of this:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=183065.msg3958167#msg3958167