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Author Topic: KY-Sen, PPP: McConnell in the lead  (Read 2651 times)
krazen1211
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« on: December 17, 2013, 09:41:58 am »

Link

McConnell 43
Grimes 42


Great news! And this is with a heavily Democratic sample too. The real electorate will likely have voted for Romney by 25 points.
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Miles
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« Reply #1 on: December 17, 2013, 09:56:29 am »

New Poll: Kentucky Senator by Public Policy Polling on 2013-12-15

Summary: D: 42%, R: 43%, U: 15%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #2 on: December 17, 2013, 09:56:57 am »

Great news! And this is with a heavily Democratic sample too. The real electorate will likely have voted for Romney by 25 points.

The sample in this poll is 52D, 39R.

For your information: The actual registration is 54D, 38R.

Which means it's not "heavily Dem".

And who knows what your "real" electorate will be like in a year ...
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krazen1211
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« Reply #3 on: December 17, 2013, 10:01:41 am »

Great news! And this is with a heavily Democratic sample too. The real electorate will likely have voted for Romney by 25 points.

The sample in this poll is 52D, 39R.

For your information: The actual registration is 54D, 38R.

Which means it's not "heavily Dem".

And who knows what your "real" electorate will be like in a year ...

Mr. Romney won Kentucky by 22 points. It is not particularly likely that such a state would produce an electorate that only voted for Mr. Romney by a mere 16 points in the 2014 elections.

PPP's prior poll of course had that Grimes in the lead.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #4 on: December 17, 2013, 10:12:56 am »

Great news! And this is with a heavily Democratic sample too. The real electorate will likely have voted for Romney by 25 points.

The sample in this poll is 52D, 39R.

For your information: The actual registration is 54D, 38R.

Which means it's not "heavily Dem".

And who knows what your "real" electorate will be like in a year ...

Mr. Romney won Kentucky by 22 points. It is not particularly likely that such a state would produce an electorate that only voted for Mr. Romney by a mere 16 points in the 2014 elections.

PPP's prior poll of course had that Grimes in the lead.

This is all still well within the MoE though.

The questions about "who did you vote for in 2012 ?" are always a bit misleading, because people may have not voted (this is a RV poll, not a likely voter poll). Turnout in KY was 60% among RV last year, so the registered who didn't vote might also lean more Dem ... ?
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Invisible Obama
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« Reply #5 on: December 17, 2013, 11:16:05 am »

Still not good for an incumbent, especially when Democrats are not exactly at a high point.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #6 on: December 17, 2013, 11:29:04 am »

Remember that a lot of McConnell's disapproval is from conservatives (evenly divided with "somewhat conservative"), who won't be voting for ALG.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #7 on: December 17, 2013, 11:32:46 am »

31% is still not a great number to be at, nor leading at 43%. Still, ALG needs to start making more ground at this point in order for this to be a race.
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sg0508
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« Reply #8 on: December 17, 2013, 12:16:06 pm »

Okay. McConnell is NOT in the lead.  I wish some of us on this board knew about statistics.  1% is absolutely within the M.O.E.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #9 on: December 17, 2013, 12:18:04 pm »

31% is still not a great number to be at, nor leading at 43%. Still, ALG needs to start making more ground at this point in order for this to be a race.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/02/myth-of-incumbent-50-rule.html

This study goes only to 2008.

31% approval is absolutely dreadful. It implies that that even partisan support for one from the base is weak. Tom Corbett has about that level of support in Pennsylvania.

Incumbent Governors and Senators can recover from about 44% approval and win about 50% of the time. The average incumbent running against the average challenger in an average election typically gains about 6% by campaigning. Such is true whether the incumbent has about 40% approval or 60% approval, according to Silver. Besides, people are generally averse to admitting that the person for whom they voted for in the previous election was a mistake. But it is clear that any politician whose support is in the 40% range is ordinarily a mistake to be defeated the next time.

 
Img


There's nothing from 2010 -- but Senators Feingold (D-WI) and Lincoln (D-AR) were in deep trouble. Both lost badly.  But as you can see, few examples of politicians with approvals below 40% at the start of the campaign season appear on the list (five), and one of them (Menendez in new Jersey) won. Everything went right for Menendez -- weak opponent, and a midterm election in which the incumbent President of the opposing Party was extremely unpopular for causes that got worse, and worse, and worse.

Maybe Mitch McConnell can get his approval numbers up to around 40% in the early spring, maybe President Obama will be seen as a catastrophic failure, his opponent will stumble her way through an inept campaign, and maybe the Republicans will benefit from a major shift in cultural patterns (like a right-wing religious revival). But that is asking for much. His 31% approval suggests that he is vulnerable to a primary challenge that, even if he survives it, can hurt him badly in the general election.

Senator McConnell has approval levels appropriate for someone under investigation for official misconduct, someone who abuses power, someone who has stepped on too many toes, or someone just not up to the job. Or he could be out of touch with changing realities of politics. Remember -- he barely got re-elected in 2008 in a great year for Republican politicians in the southeastern quadrant of the United States (other than VA, NC, and FL). 2014 may not be so great a year for Southern Republicans. They can get the blame for bad economic conditions in their states.

Politicians who have approval ratings in the low 30s do not appear on this list. Most seem to either decide to retire, get defeated in primary elections, or get impeached and removed for official misconduct. I find it hard to believe that Senator McConnell could do better than his predecessors whose approval ratings were in the high 30s.   

He has basically been running against Barack Obama, which might not be so relevant in 2014. "But Kentucky is such a conservative state!", you might say. Few outside of Wisconsin saw Senator Russ Feingold going down to defeat in such a liberal state as Wisconsin to a boilerplate right-winger.      
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Miles
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« Reply #10 on: December 17, 2013, 12:27:21 pm »

In the R primary section, which for some reason wasn't in the OP link, McConnell leads Bevin 53-26.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #11 on: December 17, 2013, 01:08:14 pm »

While this near-tie might sound somewhat realistic, the internals don't add up. This poll has McConnell doing much better among younger voters, which clearly isn't the case, especially considering the actual ages of the candidates.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #12 on: December 17, 2013, 01:09:23 pm »

The questions about "who did you vote for in 2012 ?" are always a bit misleading, because people may have not voted (this is a RV poll, not a likely voter poll). Turnout in KY was 60% among RV last year, so the registered who didn't vote might also lean more Dem ... ?

Besides, people aren't actually going to admit voting for Romney. At least Obama's supporters usually admit who they voted for.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #13 on: December 17, 2013, 01:14:22 pm »

What's really interesting is that Obama is still as popular as he is in Kentucky. I guarantee you that a lot of the disapprovals for Obama are from the left.
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King Francis I
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« Reply #14 on: December 17, 2013, 01:15:05 pm »

Remember that a lot of McConnell's disapproval is from conservatives (evenly divided with "somewhat conservative"), who won't be voting for ALG.
And Mcconnell has a big war chest!
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morgieb
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« Reply #15 on: December 17, 2013, 02:50:59 pm »

A one-point lead as an incumbent isn't much to be chirping about, and hopefully should destroy the meme of this being a bad year of the Democrats.

At the end of the day it comes down to how well Fake Grimes campaigns and survives a bombing from McConnell. We won't know into about 6 months time who will win. I'd still say McConnell though.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #16 on: December 17, 2013, 03:16:49 pm »

Okay. McConnell is NOT in the lead.  I wish some of us on this board knew about statistics.  1% is absolutely within the M.O.E.

I know about statistics, and it's a tie in polling, but generally if someones leading in a poll, even with margin of error, it's technically LEADING. Nobody here is saying McConnell is not in deep sh**t.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #17 on: December 17, 2013, 04:31:24 pm »

This still isn't a very well favored race. McConnell only has a slight edge overall.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #18 on: December 17, 2013, 04:35:09 pm »

Right now - right after The Media's bad Obamacare coverage - I think we're at "peak right." How will this race look once more people start benefiting from the ACA?
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Keystone Phil
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« Reply #19 on: December 17, 2013, 05:41:11 pm »

Safe Mitch
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #20 on: December 17, 2013, 06:01:50 pm »

Primary; Lean Bevin

General Tossup/Tilt McConnell/Bevin
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IceSpear
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« Reply #21 on: December 17, 2013, 10:32:55 pm »

31% is still not a great number to be at, nor leading at 43%. Still, ALG needs to start making more ground at this point in order for this to be a race.

How is a statistical tie not a "race"? Every poll done for this race besides internals has shown a statistical tie.
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Korwinist
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« Reply #22 on: December 20, 2013, 01:14:57 pm »

Right now - right after The Media's bad Obamacare coverage - I think we're at "peak right." How will this race look once more people start benefiting from the ACA?

Probably as good for the Democrats as when gold starts falling from the sky, when world peace is declared, and when the US starts running a budget surplus.
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