Maine

[nclib]

Does anyone have the Maine results in 2004 by congressional district. (I know the shading--does anyone have the actual numbers?)

[minionofmidas]

I don't doubt it.

[KEmperor]

District 1: 
Kerry:     55.07%   211,703
Bush:     43.14%   165,824
Other:    1.79%       6,865

District 2:

Kerry:     51.95%   185,139
Bush:     46.13%    164,377
Other:     1.92%        6,844

[nclib]

Thanks.

[chris allen]

Any reasons why Bush won District 2 in 2000 and not in 2004?

[phk]

Any reasons why Bush won District 2 in 2000 and not in 2004?

Bush never won CD 2.

[chris allen]

Any reasons why Bush won District 2 in 2000 and not in 2004?

Bush never won CD 2.

I thought he won 1 electoral vote from maine's 4 in 2000

[Joe Republic]

Any reasons why Bush won District 2 in 2000 and not in 2004?

Bush never won CD 2.

I thought he won 1 electoral vote from maine's 4 in 2000

Nope.

 

[Erc]

How close did he get in 2000?

Within potential recount margin or not?

[KEmperor]

How close did he get in 2000?

Within potential recount margin or not?

Gore won CD2 by 5,660 votes, or 1.87%.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Of course the closeness in 2000 was the fault of that piece of human filth Nader

[Kevinstat]

How close did he get in 2000?

Within potential recount margin or not?

Gore won CD2 by 5,660 votes, or 1.87%.

Maine's CD2 was made slightly more Democratic by the decenial redistricting.  Gore won what is now Disrict 2 by 2.87%.  Kerry did carry what was District 2 until this past election, but by "only" 4.95% (51.51% to 46.57%) instead of his 5.83% margin in what is now District 2.  Kerry won the old District 1 by 12.45%.  Gore won the old District 1 by 7.93% and the new District 1 by 7.23%.

Interestingly, Bush increased his margin in the combined three towns which moved from District 2 to District 1 through redistricting from 1.57% to 4.32% and reduced the Democrats' margin in the larger area added to District 2 from 18.11% to 17.29%, but saw his deficit increase from 7.36% to 12.18% in the area in both the old and new District 1 and from 1.93% to 5.10% in the area in both the old and new District 2.  One more statistic: voters from municipalities in both the old and new District 1 cast 50.70% of the vote in 2000 and 51.12% of the vote in the 2004, although those municipalities make up probably over 95% of the population of the current District 1 so the higher turnout per capita is not as great as it may seem.

While Maine's first district is decidedly more Democratic than the second district now in terms of Presidential races, it did give a plurality to the losing Republican nominee for Governor in 2002 (of course, the Democratic nominee was then the Congressman from District 2) and was represented by a Republican in Congress from 1995-1997 when the second district was represented by a Democrat.  As is commonly said around here, Maine people vote for the person and not the party.

[nclib]

Maine's CD2 was made slightly more Democratic by the decenial redistricting.  Gore won what is now Disrict 2 by 2.87%.  Kerry did carry what was District 2 until this past election, but by "only" 4.95% (51.51% to 46.57%) instead of his 5.83% margin in what is now District 2.  Kerry won the old District 1 by 12.45%.  Gore won the old District 1 by 7.93% and the new District 1 by 7.23%.

It looks like the new CD1 swung to Kerry by 4.7% and the new CD2 swung to Kerry by 3.0%.

[Kevinstat]

Maine's CD2 was made slightly more Democratic by the decenial redistricting.  Gore won what is now Disrict 2 by 2.87%.  Kerry did carry what was District 2 until this past election, but by "only" 4.95% (51.51% to 46.57%) instead of his 5.83% margin in what is now District 2.  Kerry won the old District 1 by 12.45%.  Gore won the old District 1 by 7.93% and the new District 1 by 7.23%.

It looks like the new CD1 swung to Kerry by 4.7% and the new CD2 swung to Kerry by 3.0%.

It depends on how you measure a swing between two parties between one election and another.  If you measure a % swing from Party A to Party B between elections X and Y as (Party B's % margin over Party A in election Y) - (Party B's % margin over Party A in election X) = [(Party B's % (of the total vote) in election Y) - (Party A's % in election Y)] - [(Party B's % in election X) - (Party A's % in election X)] = [(Party B's % in election Y) - (Party B's % in election X)] - [(Party A's % in election Y) - (Party A's % in election X)], then you are correct.  But if you measure the % swing from Party A to Party B as the average of the increase in Party B's % of the vote (which can be negative) and the reduction in Party A's % of the vote (which can also be negative, as the "reduction" of Bush's % of the vote is in both of Maine's Congressional districts), then the new CD 1 swung toward Kerry by 2.35% and the new CD 2 swung toward Kerry by 1.48%.  It all depends on whether you would see a shift from 100% Bush in 2000 to 100% Kerry in 2004 as a 200% swing from Bush to Kerry (or the Democrats, since Gore and not Kerry was the Democratic nominee in 2000) or only a 100% swing.

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau