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  KY-PPP: Republicans (except Cruz) slightly ahead of Hillary
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Author Topic: KY-PPP: Republicans (except Cruz) slightly ahead of Hillary  (Read 2698 times)
Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« on: December 21, 2013, 01:53:35 am »

49-43 Paul/Clinton

46-42 Bush/Clinton

44-40 Christie/Clinton

44-41 Clinton/Cruz

December 12-15, 2013
Survey of 1,509 Kentucky voters

http://www.scribd.com/document_downloads/192171096?extension=pdf&from=embed&source=embed
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #1 on: December 21, 2013, 01:57:24 am »

Here's the trend:

In the Dec. 2012 PPP poll from KY, Hillary led Paul by 5 (47-42).

In their April 2013 poll, the race was tied 45-45.

And now she's down by 6.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #2 on: December 21, 2013, 02:03:50 am »

I think there could be 4 reasons for this trend:

* A) Benghazi - With more people aware of the situation, Hillary might have dropped.

* B) The general drop in favour for the Democrats in recent months.

* C) the margin of error

* D) the fact that Rand Paul is now seen as a more likely 2016 candidate, which leads more people in KY to take him serious. (the previous polls showed that people didn't want Paul to run in 2016, that figure is now much higher).
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morgieb
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« Reply #3 on: December 21, 2013, 02:13:41 am »

Heh, Cruz.

The reason why Hillary has dropped is down towards her being seen as a national Dem rather than a non-partisan SOS. This comes as a surprise to no-one.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #4 on: December 21, 2013, 02:17:40 am »

New map:



304 Clinton
234 Christie
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greenforest32
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« Reply #5 on: December 21, 2013, 04:54:36 pm »


lol @ the idea of Clinton winning Arkansas and Louisiana while losing Colorado and Virginia
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #6 on: December 21, 2013, 04:57:51 pm »

Also, it would help matters if The Media would cover the Rand Paul plagiarism scandal - which they've ignored.
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Biden If Buttigieg
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« Reply #7 on: December 23, 2013, 02:05:18 pm »

Why won't PPP poll AR? Because we need a new TX poll a few weeks?
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Edgar Suit Larry
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« Reply #8 on: December 23, 2013, 02:17:06 pm »


lol @ the idea of Clinton winning Arkansas and Louisiana while losing Colorado and Virginia

or New Jersey for that matter. Maybe Christie is giving the opportunity to a diverse and very educated state to reconsider the Republican Party. More likely, the average voter wants someone who will keep Government affordable and not charge head first into things they aren't comfortable yet but still wants a Government that provides good services and respects civil rights.
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #9 on: December 23, 2013, 03:05:12 pm »

I still predict that by state-to-state margins, this election will look a lot like 2000. Hillary is a terrible candidate for the Mountain West and the Southeast compared to Obama, but will improve upon his performance in the interior South and Rustbelt, though I have my doubts she will actually flip any states there (losing Arkansas by 5% instead of 25% is still losing Arkansas).
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TDAS04
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« Reply #10 on: December 23, 2013, 03:58:58 pm »

Regardless of what polls say now, I doubt that Kentucky will vote to the left of Iowa or Colorado in the end.
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Anonymous
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« Reply #11 on: December 26, 2013, 03:56:54 am »

Regardless of what polls say now, I doubt that Kentucky will vote to the left of Iowa or Colorado in the end.

Poor Ted Cruz has become the male version of Sarah Palin in the GOP. Having said that, I sure hope he gets the nomination. I wonder if Hillary or the Democratic PACs will take a page out of Claire McCaskill's playbook and run some ads during the Republican primary saying that Ted Cruz was responsible for the government shutdown, is too conservative, etc., that will help energize their base to vote for him.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #12 on: January 03, 2014, 02:17:32 pm »

49/43, Jeb leads 46/44 and Cruz trails 44/41.
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Biden If Buttigieg
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« Reply #13 on: January 03, 2014, 02:37:35 pm »

Kentucky will not vote for Hillary. It's actually amazing that her husband won it amidst his war with the tobacco industry.
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Landslide Andy
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« Reply #14 on: January 03, 2014, 02:39:53 pm »

Still quite a large drop for Republicans considering the 2008/2012 results.
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Mr. Morden
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« Reply #15 on: January 03, 2014, 03:16:28 pm »

Bush 46%
Clinton 42%

Christie 44%
Clinton 40%

Clinton 44%
Cruz 41%

Paul 49%
Clinton 43%
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #16 on: January 03, 2014, 04:35:57 pm »


The way things are going, it just might. This poll was taken many weeks ago.
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WeAreDoomed
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« Reply #17 on: January 03, 2014, 04:47:22 pm »


The way things are going, it just might. This poll was taken many weeks ago.
Only in your most liberal fantasy will that happen.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #18 on: January 03, 2014, 04:49:55 pm »

Only in your most liberal fantasy will that happen.

Did you check the age breakdown?

Let's be honest: Old people are more likely to die before 2016. And they're more Republican.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #19 on: January 03, 2014, 04:51:31 pm »

Still quite a large drop for Republicans considering the 2008/2012 results.

Oh no question, but Obama is the worst possible pick for Kentucky.
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WeAreDoomed
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« Reply #20 on: January 03, 2014, 04:53:51 pm »

Only in your most liberal fantasy will that happen.

Did you check the age breakdown?

Let's be honest: Old people are more likely to die before 2016. And they're more Republican.
You know there won't be enough deaths by 2016. You must be joking if you think Kentucky will actually do Democratic in the next election. Wait until the 2020 election for that.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #21 on: January 03, 2014, 04:55:57 pm »

You know there won't be enough deaths by 2016. You must be joking if you think Kentucky will actually do Democratic in the next election. Wait until the 2020 election for that.

Uh, Hillary is already beating Ted Cruz in that poll.
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WeAreDoomed
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« Reply #22 on: January 03, 2014, 05:02:28 pm »

Come on, once campaign season starts, Kentucky is going to settle back in the Republican camp.
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Biden If Buttigieg
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« Reply #23 on: January 03, 2014, 05:07:12 pm »


The way things are going, it just might. This poll was taken many weeks ago.

Didn't you say the only reason Kerry lost KY was because of voter fraud?
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Snowstalker's Last Stand
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« Reply #24 on: January 03, 2014, 05:07:52 pm »

Clinton will obviously do better in the state, but the votes aren't there to actually get a plurality against anyone except perhaps Cruz.
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