Clinton in AR, WV and OK

[⛄]

I think we can agree on the fact that there is no way around Clinton as the Democratic presidential candidate.
Everybody also knows that Clinton will retake West Virginia and Arkansas; Oklahoma will stay Republican, of course, but it'll be trending 10% or more Democratic.

What counties will stay Republican in AR and WV? What OK counties will Clinton recapture?
OK and WV are very interesting in this regard as all of their counties were won by Romney. The last Democratic candidate to win at least one Oklahoman county was Gore.

[JacobNC]

West Virginia is safe R and Arkansas is likely R.  She may do significantly better in Arkansas and Oklahoma, but chances are, Arkansas will stay Republican.

[NewYorkExpress]

She's to closely tied to Obama to do any better in these three states... Now states like North Carolina and Georgia are where the Clinton's should be looking.

[Flake]

Hillary Clinton is most likely going to lose all of these states, with the exception of the Republican Party nominating someone like Ted Cruz, nonetheless she will make huge gains in these states, since President Obama is most likely the worst candidate for these states for various social and political reasons.

[TDAS04]

She could possibly carry a tiny number of counties in Oklahoma, but no guarantee, since Obama lost them all by double digits.

[JRP1994]

Arkansas is by FAR her best shot to pick up one of those 3 states, and my guess is that she'd be about as likely to win it as Obama was to win North Dakota in 2008.

[Indy Texas]

I think we can agree on the fact that there is no way around Clinton as the Democratic presidential candidate.
Everybody also knows that Clinton will retake West Virginia and Arkansas; Oklahoma will stay Republican, of course, but it'll be trending 10% or more Democratic.

What counties will stay Republican in AR and WV? What OK counties will Clinton recapture?
OK and WV are very interesting in this regard as all of their counties were won by Romney. The last Democratic candidate to win at least one Oklahoman county was Gore.

lolufunnytho

Best case scenario, Clinton maybe loses by 10 points in Arkansas. They don't have the coal issue like WV. Maybe she wins one or two eastern Oklahoma counties but she'll still lose the state by 15 points or more.

[TDAS04]

If Hillary could come within 20 points of winning Oklahoma, that would be surprising.

[LeBron]

Clinton won't win WV. Not only because she has a connection to Obama, but even the fact that she supports some gun control pisses the voters off there. The only Democrat who could stand a chance at carrying it in 2016 if he runs is Manchin, but even than God save us.

She won't win in OK either or in ID, WY, AL, UT, KS or any other insanely Repub. states either. As for Arkansas, if it's a Democratic wave and the Republican candidate is a Tea Partier, then maybe she can get Missouri, Arkansas and Louisiana, but besides that, I doubt it.

[Frodo]

Clinton won't win WV. Not only because she has a connection to Obama, but even the fact that she supports some gun control pisses the voters off there. The only Democrat who could stand a chance at carrying it in 2016 if he runs is Manchin, but even than God save us.

She won't win in OK either or in ID, WY, AL, UT, KS or any other insanely Repub. states either. As for Arkansas, if it's a Democratic wave and the Republican candidate is a Tea Partier, then maybe she can get Missouri, Arkansas and Louisiana, but besides that, I doubt it.

If she loses West Virginia because of gun control (among other culture war issues), what makes you think she has any better chance in either Missouri, Arkansas, or Louisiana? 

She is not her husband. 

[LeBron]

Clinton won't win WV. Not only because she has a connection to Obama, but even the fact that she supports some gun control pisses the voters off there. The only Democrat who could stand a chance at carrying it in 2016 if he runs is Manchin, but even than God save us.

She won't win in OK either or in ID, WY, AL, UT, KS or any other insanely Repub. states either. As for Arkansas, if it's a Democratic wave and the Republican candidate is a Tea Partier, then maybe she can get Missouri, Arkansas and Louisiana, but besides that, I doubt it.

If she loses West Virginia because of gun control (among other culture war issues), what makes you think she has any better chance in either Missouri, Arkansas, or Louisiana? 

She is not her husband. 

Because those states aren't nearly as Republican as West Virginia. She will still gain southern support either way because I would assume Bill would help campaign for her down there and maybe even Jay Nixon or Mike Beebe would to.

Obama nearly won Missouri in '08 in a Dem. wave and if we can see another similar year to 2008 but with Hillary, she could flip maybe Missouri, but Arkansas and Louisiana are a long-shot. WV is on the downhill though and may never go for another Democrat as long as we live in a Presidential election. The South mainly wants moderates to, but can be much more open than WV. For God's sake, the Governor of Arkansas supports the ACA and is pretty economically liberal.

[morgieb]

This isn't the 90's. A good goal for Oklahoma would be to win a county and get above 40% of the vote. Arkansas and West Virginia will probably be 53-46 losses rather than 61-37, which is improvement and may help ebb downballot bleeding, but yeah I can't see her winning them against a normal Pubbie.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The only McCain states that Hillary has any chance in are AR, MO, and GA.  

[LeBron]

The only McCain states that Hillary has any chance in are AR, MO, and GA.  

And the possibility of Arizona to. Clinton won both of them each once so both could be at stake, but Georgia would go first if it even does in a Democratic wave.

[⛄]

Guys, I never argued that Clinton would win Oklahoma.

[HAnnA MArin County]

Just some food for thought: Hillary Clinton received more votes in the 2008 West Virginia Democratic Primary (and carried every county) than Barack Obama received in the 2012 general election (who lost every county). I'm not sure if the "she's too close to Obama" argument will hold much water here. If she sees that she's going to lose Colorado, I think she will try to win some of these Clinton states as opposed to trying to flip Montana, although she could certainly put Arizona into play, a state that voted for her in 2008.

[pbrower2a]

This is the point: Hillary Clinton is not Barack Obama. Her political style and her techniques are not the same. She will inherit the Obama campaign apparatus, but she will be able to address issues (like poverty) that Barack Obama had to avoid. White people generally distrust black people telling them about poverty.

When poor white people start recognizing poverty as a menace and gun-grabbing as no threat they are going to turn on the Hard Right.   

[MATTROSE94]

I do not think that Hillary Clnton would carry any ofthose states, even if the Republicans nominate Ted Cruz or Rick Santorum, but would do better than Obama in all three states. Hillary Clinton could get maybe 45% of the vote in Arkansas and West Virginia and possibly 38-39% of the vote in Oklahoma if she plays her cards right.

[henster]

She will not waste her money and time contesting these states Clinton will focus on holding Obama states in 2016. There is no reason to waste money trying to expanding the map because it will just siphon off resources in other key states like NC, FL, CO, and VA.

[pbrower2a]

The point: with the Obama people in charge she is unlikely to risk losing the electoral college by failing to consolidate the states that she needs just to go on some vain effort to pick up states that she won't likely win.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Kind of confused why people think WV is SO out of reach...  They have a Democratic governor, two Democratic Senators, both state legislatures are majority Democratic and well over 50% of registered voters in the state are Democrats.  The state voted for her husband twice and was fairly close to going for Gore in 2000.  I honestly think 2008 and 2012 were pretty clearly "unique" given the fact that Obama was - let's be real - Black.  If you don't think that isn't a factor in why WV appeared so "Red" in those two elections, then you simply didn't pay attention to the '08 primaries there.

Granted, as more and more older, rural, White Southern Democrats die off, all of these Southern states are becoming increasingly Republican.  However, I think West Virginia is still very much in reach, and if a nominee like Christie could bring CO back into the Republican tent and maybe flip somewhere like Pennsylvania or NH or even Maine (which current polls suggest is possible), then WV could end up being a huge battleground state.  FWIW, I think Obamacare will continue to hurt the national Democrats' brand in the South and West, and I'd expect a Republican to steal West Virginia again ... but if it's Clinton vs. Christie, I'd expect the race to be close.

[Joe Biden 2020]

First of all, it is far from a guarantee that Clinton will be the Democratic Nominee.  She is not all she's cracked up to be.  Furthermore, even if she is the Democratic nominee, she will likely lose the general election.  Yes, I said likely.  Her days of holding political office are behind her.

If she would be the Democratic nominee the fact that she is not Barack Obama would definitely help her in the three states you mention.  In Oklahoma, it might get her close to 40% maybe 42%.  She'll carry a few Oklahoma counties out east, but get murdered elsewhere.  She'll lose all three of these states by a fair margin, though.

[pbrower2a]

Kind of confused why people think WV is SO out of reach...  They have a Democratic governor, two Democratic Senators, both state legislatures are majority Democratic and well over 50% of registered voters in the state are Democrats.  The state voted for her husband twice and was fairly close to going for Gore in 2000.  I honestly think 2008 and 2012 were pretty clearly "unique" given the fact that Obama was - let's be real - Black.  If you don't think that isn't a factor in why WV appeared so "Red" in those two elections, then you simply didn't pay attention to the '08 primaries there.

Granted, as more and more older, rural, White Southern Democrats die off, all of these Southern states are becoming increasingly Republican.  However, I think West Virginia is still very much in reach, and if a nominee like Christie could bring CO back into the Republican tent and maybe flip somewhere like Pennsylvania or NH or even Maine (which current polls suggest is possible), then WV could end up being a huge battleground state.  FWIW, I think Obamacare will continue to hurt the national Democrats' brand in the South and West, and I'd expect a Republican to steal West Virginia again ... but if it's Clinton vs. Christie, I'd expect the race to be close.

Two possible explanations:

1. West Virginia was a very solid D state when the unions in the mining industry were strong. Now that the coal seams have been largely mined out the coal barons have far more power over workers and can revert to the old "my-way-if-you-want-to-work-at-all" attitude of the Gilded Age. Miners now endure a political and economic equivalent of a Stockholm syndrome.

Sure, it was Ohio, which really did matter in 2012, and not West Virginia - but one coal baron closed a mine for a day with workers getting no pay and told those miners to appear at a campaign rally/photo op for Mitt Romney. The ethos of the Gilded Age (you need a pay cut and to work more hours under the lash so that the owners can build their castles) has returned to the GOP.

If such breaks, then maybe West Virginia goes back to its D ways. Until then it is simply the newest state to take a pervasive swing from D to R (except perhaps Missouri).

2. West Virginia has never been liberal except on economic issues. It's very rural with no giant cities (Obama lost every county in 2012  in a 62-35 rout and all but seven counties in 2008 in a 55-42 split). He lost Kanawha County both years.

Kerry lost it 56-43, perhaps showing that a northern liberal city-slicker can no longer win the state. Gore lost it 51-46 (which shocked me). I couldn't see how a state that went by an absolute majority for Clinton in 1996 could go against someone similar in political views four years later.

It was more Democratic than the national average in the Reagan blowout of 1984, and it went for Mike Dukakis in 1988. But it can go against a Democratic nominee for President who is easily cast, at least locally, as an extremist out of touch with the culture. It went 63-35 for Nixon against McGovern in 1972 even if it went absolutely for Humphrey in 1988. 

....Did Al Gore fail to make appearances in West Virginia? Had he won the state he would have won the Presidency. Dubya may have been less than the brightest bulb in American politics, but he was no less a city-slicker than Gore. Or -- is Barack Obama the equivalent of George McGovern in West Virginia? 

         

[The Mikado]

I think we can agree on the fact that there is no way around Clinton as the Democratic presidential candidate.
Everybody also knows that Clinton will retake West Virginia and Arkansas; Oklahoma will stay Republican, of course, but it'll be trending 10% or more Democratic.

What counties will stay Republican in AR and WV? What OK counties will Clinton recapture?
OK and WV are very interesting in this regard as all of their counties were won by Romney. The last Democratic candidate to win at least one Oklahoman county was Gore.

Clinton won't win any of the above states.  Democratic opposition to coal and embrace of the environmental movement is the death knell of the Democratic Party in West Virginia (I don't think that's a bad thing, either...it's just the way it is).  Arkansas will be closer than it has been in three cycles but the GOP should still be able to pull out a comfortable 6-8 point win there.

[CatoMinor]

Guys we have been over this. This is clearly what the map will look like for Clinton vs Sen. Sacrificial Lamb: