Will China ever invade Taiwan?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I say no for three reasons:

1-They probably can't take it anyway
2-Even if they did the casualties would be so high, not to mention the many more losses in the occupation could possibly cause so much discontent the government could collapse
3-They would be shunned by most of their big trading partners and be set back massively.

[AuH2O]

No, primarily for economic reasons.

In theory, the government could try it to prevent its own collapse (like Argentina invading the Falklands) but Taiwan isn't a sparsely-inhabited, irrelevant island.

[Rob]

No, probably not.

[Citizen James]

I would consider it unlikely, unless they got backed into a corner - they just don't have that good of logistics for overseas transport, and the use of nukes would probably kill their most of their trading relationships with the rest of the world - even if they did try and cite the Bush doctorine as an excuse.   There's really too much for them to lose and too little to gain.

Then again, hard liners and idological fanatics can be very unpredicatble at times.   If their own set of neo-conservatives gains power all bets are off.

[Lunar]

I say no for three reasons:

1-They probably can't take it anyway

China is able to, although perhaps not without reducing the island to rubble with artillery.  Taiwan has phenomenal anti-air systems, but a good old artillery barrage can wreck hell.

Furthermore, China MUST be able to if its foreign policy goal of integration is going to be taken seriously.  If it were not possible, Taiwan would have declared independence by now.
 

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Meh, probably not.

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Here comes a key reason.  This is why China is trying to build legitimacy for such a move by passing laws legalizing an invasion under certain conditions.

China hopes to integrate Taiwan like it did with Hong Kong, we'll see if Taiwan cracks.

[The Duke]

Perhaps someday, but not within the next year or two at least.

[PADem]

No way.

Everyone knows that Taiwan is independent anyway and China will not risk alienating the western powers such as the U.S, E.U and Commonwealth nations.

[jaichind]

At this stage without US support, the Taipei regime can hold out at most two weeks before total defeat.  That pretty much comes from the ROC Minister of Defense.  Main reason the PLA does not attack is becuase possible USA intervention, economic fallout, political/monetery cost of an occupation.  That PLA will win is for certain and the gap between the two sides will get even bigger and bigger.  Eventually my fellow Chinese on Taiwan Province will have to surrender in some way.  As someone from from Taiwan Province I only hope it would be honerable and without bloodshed.

[John Dibble]

I doubt they will. It really would be a bad foreign policy move, plus it would be bad economically for many nation - so they'd likely get involved.

[Jake]

Not in the next few years. 

First, they don't have enough see lift to accomplish the invasion. An invasion would need much more shipping than they have, and would require preperations that would be easily detected by the world. If the Chinese pressed on, they'd lose any suprise, and the US would destroy their fleet when it began to move.

Second,  to succeed would be to inherit a barren rock, radioactive and balsted apart, along with a massive war with the US and the destruction of their economy.

[WMS]

At some point, China probably will, likely as an attempt by a crumbling Communist government to stoke enough nationalism to keep their corrupt asses in power.

I expect this will likely tip off a general East Asian war, with Taiwan supported by the U.S., Japan, the Philippines (barring government overthrow in the interim a la Chavez in Venezuela), Vietnam (2000 years of hostility to China hasn't been forgotten one bit) with Vietnam comes their puppet Laos, for what that's worth, Thailand, Singapore, Australia, and possibly Indonesia. Why so many allies? Geopolitics - these countries are more likely to fear China than America.

I fully expect South (or unified) Korea to declare neutrality, following their traditional acceptance of China as a kind of suzerain, and for New Zealand to follow their neutralist-isolationist policy (I haven't considered them an ally in quite some time).

Wild cards in such a conflict: the small Pacific Island countries; India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Brunei, Cambodia (who is their ultimate master, Hanoi or Beijing?), and the biggest wild card of them all - Russia and there's Mongolia, which likes the U.S. but is sandwiched between China and Russia - expect them to do what Russia does.

If Myanmar is still ruled by their socialist military junta (yep, that seems to be the most accurate term for these guys), they will back China. If the democrats ever win out, expect neutrality or a pro-U.S. lean. North Korea will back China...if it hasn't collapsed.

I do not expect this to happen in the next five years. After that, I'd say it would happen in the ten years following (so about 5/6 to 15 years from now). Ultimate monkeywrench: Chinese economic and political collapse before this happens.

And yes, following a war with some nasty surprises, I expect China to lose in the end and for its regime to go a la Argentina after the Falkland War.

This may be the longest way to answer 'yes' to BRTD's question yet.

[angus]

I have spoken with a fairly high-ranking official in the communist party of the People's Republic of China about this very issue, and she informs me that it is unlikely.  Take that for what it is worth. 

My personal feeling is that as long as the US continues along its path of abandonment of Taiwan it becomes increasingly likely.  The few taiwan colleagues I have had all exhibit a reticence to discuss this issue, and I hold that as further evidence that the percieved global weakening of the US is alarming to the people of Taiwan.

[WMS]

I have spoken with a fairly high-ranking official in the communist party of the People's Republic of China about this very issue, and she informs me that it is unlikely.  Take that for what it is worth. 

My personal feeling is that as long as the US continues along its path of abandonment of Taiwan it becomes increasingly likely.  The few taiwan colleagues I have had all exhibit a reticence to discuss this issue, and I hold that as further evidence that the percieved global weakening of the US is alarming to the people of Taiwan.

Abandoning Taiwan would be silly, for one main reason: there's some damn important sealanes that pass by Taiwan. And the U.S. cares very, very, much about sealanes...

[angus]

I said "percieved" weakening.  I thought about italicizing that word.  Of course you're right.  But the perception seems to me to be that you're either sinophillic or formosaphillic.  I think we can be both, frankly, but perceptions matter.  As I said, the only answer I can get out of the folks I know in PRC is that they aren't into that, but more than that, there's the overwhelming feeling that Taiwan will join china one day.  That comes not only from my government acquaintence, but also from every chinese citizen I've ever talked to.  To them, it's not a matter of if, but when.  And the "when" hinges on perceptions of US designs in the area, imho.

[WMS]

I said "percieved" weakening.  I thought about italicizing that word.  Of course you're right.  But the perception seems to me to be that you're either sinophillic or formosaphillic.  I think we can be both, frankly, but perceptions matter.  As I said, the only answer I can get out of the folks I know in PRC is that they aren't into that, but more than that, there's the overwhelming feeling that Taiwan will join china one day.  That comes not only from my government acquaintence, but also from every chinese citizen I've ever talked to.  To them, it's not a matter of if, but when.  And the "when" hinges on perceptions of US designs in the area, imho.

D'oh! I was going off of the first sentence of the second paragraph, instead of the second.

Actually, China (the country) has a fascinating history (Taipings, anyone? ) which is often reflected in modern-day events there (Li Ssu's Legalists were so much like Mao Zedong's Communists that I found it glaringly obvious), so I don't hate them. But I do despise their government, and consider them a threat. Heck, their own military White Papers have clearly stated that the U.S. is their main enemy for decades. That's just reality - we're pretty much destined to clash, because they want to be on top in East Asia, and so do we.

I am very impressed at what Taiwan became after Chiang Kai-shek finally died - a prosperous free-market democracy. It is SO much easier to like Taiwan over China - the shining ally versus the ominous enemy. I understand that China feels reunification will happen at some point...but quite frankly, Taiwan has a point: China should change to meet IT, not the other way around. I believe that on Taiwan itself, the pro-reunification folks are still a majority...although every year that passes with China still a blustering, corrupt, repressive state probably makes that sentiment ebb a little bit more. After all, given the level of Chinese interference in Hong Kong's political system, why should any Taiwanese who supports democracy believe anything positive China says about 'one country, two systems'?

It doesn't mean Taiwan will be able to resist Chinese pressure forever, of course, but I think there will be a lot more bumps on the road to reunification than China wants to admit.

[Moooooo]

China has made it very clear that it is not in Taiwans best interest to delcare it's independence.

Plus, China doesnt have to worry about the United States in this situation.  Heres why...


"China may not have near the military force the US has but China is not stupid by any means of the imagination. Ever heard there is more than one way to skin a cat? Well, China definitely has an alternative way.

China will not allow Taiwan to obtain it's independence, they have made that very clear. The US has made clear that it believes in China and Taiwan as one nation, BUT will defend Taiwan if attacked by China.

China currently holds trillions of dollars of the US Debt in dollars....and should they dump them, the US economy would take a nosedive....so much so that the US could not possibly defend Taiwan and/or declare war on China....it just would not be financially feasible.

China is fully aware of this situation with the US, now China has taken this opportune time to take this step against Taiwan, while warning the US to boot.

It is my contention that China fully intends to give Taiwan an ultimatum and if they do not comply China will strike, all the while telling the US, you defend them, we will throw your dollars in the trash and crash your economy so you can not pay to send ANYONE over here to defend Taiwan.

It's a pretty critical situation from my point of view, and it makes me very uneasy that Bush has allowed the US to fall into this situation at this point in time." - Julie

(and no this isnt from a member at DU)

[AuH2O]

You have it backwards. We owe them-- so they can't dump the debt.

It's like, one time in the 80s, someone asked Trump something like this:

"Does it bother you being $200 million in debt?"

Trump: "Not at all. That's not my problem, that's the bank's problem!"

China's the bank.

[2952-0-0]

Not a chance, no:

The pro-independence president in Taiwan, Chen Shui Bian, has an approval rate in the low 30s

Anti-independence parties scored an upset in last December's legislative elections by taking control of the legislature

Mainland China admits that they will do anything on the table as long as the Republic of China keeps that name

Relations between the two sides are improving. In 2000 ferries opened between the two sides, In February we saw the first direct flights across the Taiwan strait since the Communists took over.

Isn't wise to invade one of your biggest trading partners

An independent Taiwan would need rercognition from big nations like the US, and Rice visiting Beijing a few days from now doesn't help

So in short we have not much political will in Taiwan, economic deterrence from the mainland, and cultural ties that are developing rapidly. So no.

[Gustaf]

What do you mean "dump them"? The dollar is floating, you cannot speculate successfully against a floating currency, really.

I am assuming that you mean that China would try and sell dollars thus making the dollar fall by a lot. The thing is, this would be speculation, not based on the actual real value fo the dollar. Once China had managed to sell its dollars to this low price the dollar would bounce back. In the mean-time, American companies over-seas sales would increase dramatically while imported products in the US would be a lot more expensive. When all is said and done the main effect would be a HUGE economic loss to China, since they will have exchanged dollars for some other currency at to low a rate.

[ATFFL]

No nation will ever dump all its dollars.  no nation would ever put itself in a position where it cannot buy oil on the open market.

If China tried to dump its bonds (the US debt it holds) the US can invalidate those bonds.  Another reason why nations are loathe to go to war with the US.  If a country cancels debt held by a foreign nation it is at war with, it will not have an impact on the credit rating of the nation.

The problem is if the US gets addicted to canceling its debt this way.

[angus]

Actually, China (the country) has a fascinating history (Taipings, anyone? ) which is often reflected in modern-day events there (Li Ssu's Legalists were so much like Mao Zedong's Communists that I found it glaringly obvious), so I don't hate them. But I do despise their government, and consider them a threat. Heck, their own military White Papers have clearly stated that the U.S. is their main enemy for decades. That's just reality - we're pretty much destined to clash, because they want to be on top in East Asia, and so do we.

I am very impressed at what Taiwan became after Chiang Kai-shek finally died - a prosperous free-market democracy. It is SO much easier to like Taiwan over China - the shining ally versus the ominous enemy. I understand that China feels reunification will happen at some point...but quite frankly, Taiwan has a point: China should change to meet IT, not the other way around. I believe that on Taiwan itself, the pro-reunification folks are still a majority...although every year that passes with China still a blustering, corrupt, repressive state probably makes that sentiment ebb a little bit more. After all, given the level of Chinese interference in Hong Kong's political system, why should any Taiwanese who supports democracy believe anything positive China says about 'one country, two systems'?

It doesn't mean Taiwan will be able to resist Chinese pressure forever, of course, but I think there will be a lot more bumps on the road to reunification than China wants to admit.

I have a copy of a February 1938 issue of NGM in which there's a nice story on Nanjing, the former capital of China.  I purchased it for the photos and descriptions because my wife is from Nanjing, and most of her extended family live there.  I read it in the frame of mind of, say, a 1938 New Yorker, with the economy of the world picking up steam, no big wars to worry about other than some far-off conflict raging between Japan and China, and the unrelated potential for a little rift between England and Germany.  I noted that there were many in my country whose economic interests in Nanjing and elsewhere in china were hampered by Japan's occupation, and that many in my country were clamoring for sanctions against Japan and its growing appetite for oil.  Nanjing was a beautiful, free market place.  Clothing fashions, nice streets and modern amenities.  My wife's mother, who would later recieve as a gift a copy of the same issue, would look in amazement and remembrance of her mother's stories of what a beautiful place, full of hope for the future, that china was, if only it could throw off the Japanese aggressors.  Of course, the article was prepared prior to December 1937, and Nanjing had yet to fall to the Imperial Army of Japan, and the Rape of Nanjing had not yet occurred.  And hard times were a'comin.  And even harder times still would come in the late 60s and early 70s.  Still, at that moment in history Nanjing was a beautiful, open, capitalistic free market.  And its nationalistic government would have no way of predicting its exile to a large tropical island off the coast of Asia.  Hindsight is 20/20, and the Chinese I know who are willing to talk about it recognize the dual mistakes of Communism and the Cultural Revolution.  No doubt, it's easy for someone to talk in theory about a government swallowing its pride.  It's much harder in practice for a government to do that.

[Democratic Hawk]

I hope not. I always though the Republic of China (Taiwan) was independent from the Peoples Republic anyway

Dave

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Seeing as China has never and will never give a damn what the rest of the world thinks...

[AuH2O]

The Chinese people do. Especially if B-2s knock out their electrical grid in the first week of the war.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Chinese people do. Especially if B-2s knock out their electrical grid in the first week of the war.

To be brutally honest, they don't matter and never really have.
I don't think the people that used to live around the Three Gorges (about 1 to 3 Million) liked being flooded out of their homes to build an ego-dam, but it's not like they could or can do anything about it.