Will China ever invade Taiwan?

[AuH2O]

Times are changing though. China didn't use to have a middle class-- now it has a large one numerically (though still small proportionately). The capitalists, or, in communist party lingo, "most advanced economically," who the party pledged to represent under Jiang, do not want war.

The government can stop a few student protesters, but not 100 million people in the eastern metropolises.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The government can stop a few student protesters, but not 100 million people in the eastern metropolises.

Wrong

[angus]

The Chinese people do. Especially if B-2s knock out their electrical grid in the first week of the war.

To be brutally honest, they don't matter and never really have.
I don't think the people that used to live around the Three Gorges (about 1 to 3 Million) liked being flooded out of their homes to build an ego-dam, but it's not like they could or can do anything about it.

Ha.  good point.  the ego-friendly, but not eco-friendly dam is a good example of China's reluctance to bow to international pressure.  Lots of documentaries appeared over here about that, and I suppose there was some consternation, but not enough so that there were big ripples in the US papers. 

I think I and other westerners lose sight of the general stoicism inherent in collectivist cultures.  You, being something of a throwback to an earlier political philosophy, may be more sensitive to that. 

As an aside, I should disclose that I have not voted in this straw poll and do not intend to.  Though I am tempted to view the results.

[AuH2O]

The government can stop a few student protesters, but not 100 million people in the eastern metropolises.

Wrong

Says who, you? What's your expertise? Having a coal fetish? Reveling in being a poor and obsolete piece of trash?

You have no clue what you're talking about. None. And it's fairly obvious when your "argument" is one word long.

[angus]

six to fifteen. 

intriguing.  that's about a quarter of the posters saying china will "ever" invade taiwan.  I'd have thought it would be more.  Forever is a long time.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

What's your expertise?

Professional Cynic

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Abuse over arguement again Goldie? Would mentioning that your a holocaust denier and a racist be an appropriate response?

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Go find out how many people died in the Taiping (sp?) rebellion. Or the "Great Leap Forward" etc. etc. etc.

[angus]

Al's the mother figure, protective, won't let you play hockey or have a motorcycle, makes you wear warm clothes, wash your hands, etc.  In the same sense that MarkDel is the father figure, frustrated, impatient, drunk, wants you to understand history and politics and excel in mathematics and science and business, but forgets to make you eat your food and wear your jacket and such. 

You really need both, imho. 

[AuH2O]

Trust me, I know A LOT more about Chinese history than you do. That tends to happen why you study under internationally-recognized experts and have to take their exams, as opposed to (you) reading a 5th grade text.

There is no doubt the Chinese can be a little strange at times... I mean, the guy that started the Taiping rebellion thought he was Jesus' younger (and Oriental) brother. But I guess that can happen after you flunk like 6 civil service exams and some rando gives you a partial translation of the Bible.

But most people were basically subsistence farmers then. In Beijing, guess what, they aren't farming. They are working in a modern economy and they value their lives over some ideal of "reuniting" China. Talk to Chinese PEOPLE, i.e. those that actually live in China (I haven't been but a number have come to speak at my university), look at their economic growth, look at the history of Taiwan.

You can have an opinion, but it's not based on things like fact or reality. These days, Limeyland as a whole is pretty disconnected, so as Josh Homme sang, "ain't no big surprise."

[angus]

you're the crazy uncle next door.  daddy thinks you're funny.  mama is a little scared by you.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Trust me, I know A LOT more about Chinese history than you do.

You seem to know a lot more about everything than everyone in the entire history of Creation

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Ex=A has been. Spurt=A drip under pressure (old, old joke...)

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We do have exams over here ya know

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Amazing how you also know everything about everybody in the history of Creation as well isn't it? All I know about China (and indeed almost everything) comes from reading. I read a lot. It opens your mind. You should try it sometime.

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Missing my point entirely...

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Still are

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They weren't then either

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Modern economies don't ban unions and murder union activists. Modern economies don't allow sweatshops. Modern economies don't allow child labour. Modern economies have some dignity.

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Their lives don't matter to The Party

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In the grand scheme of things, all meaningless

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Says the holocaust denier

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And now here comes the quasi-racist abuse to finish off with...

[AuH2O]

Talk about arrogance. By your "reading," you know more than people that have studied China and interacted with the communist government for 30 years?

And then you call ME arrogant? LOL

I am not even in your league, black lung.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Talk about arrogance. By your "reading," you know more than people that have studied China and interacted with the communist government for 30 years?

Did I say that?
I never knew you've been studing China for 30 years. How old are ye exactly?

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Not funny, not clever.

[AuH2O]

Talk about arrogance. By your "reading," you know more than people that have studied China and interacted with the communist government for 30 years?

Did I say that?
I never knew you've been studing China for 30 years. How old are ye exactly?

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Not funny, not clever.

I'm not the one that developed the reasons China won't attack Taiwan. Literally hundreds of scholars, maybe thousands, have articulated reasons. I merely made brief mention of a couple of their points.

You see, I respect people that do actual research, in academia or no, as opposed to some leper that reads a couple books and fancies himself an authoritative source.

Get it into your polluted head: organized labor is dying. Coal as a power source is dying. And the ability of governments to control their populations against their will is dying.

[angus]

I think Al and MarkDel would make a great couple, in the sense that they would provide complementary and mutually exclusive parenting roles.  And in any case should not be excluded from the possibility of adoption based on the fact that they have the same moving parts.

AuH2O, on the other hand, should be excluded from that possibility on religious grounds.  I.e., if there is a god, then he/she/it would not want AuH2O to procreate. 

Sorry, I've been playing house lately.  Seems that I get into little ruts, or periods, in which I see the world through whatever externally imposed circumstances are affecting my life.

I return you to your regularly scheduled hatefest.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

You see, I respect people that do actual research, in academia or no, as opposed to some leper that reads a couple books and fancies himself an authoritative source.

I never claimed to be an authoritative source and I'm not a leper.

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Not true

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Not really. Off topic but I'd like to see more restrictions on opencast mining and more research to make coal energy efficient.

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Sadly, that's not true.

[Bono]

I say no for three reasons:

1-They probably can't take it anyway

China is able to, although perhaps not without reducing the island to rubble with artillery.  Taiwan has phenomenal anti-air systems, but a good old artillery barrage can wreck hell.

Furthermore, China MUST be able to if its foreign policy goal of integration is going to be taken seriously.  If it were not possible, Taiwan would have declared independence by now.
 

the strenght of the Chinese army is overplayed. they can parade their 4 pieces of modern equipment while keeping the 1600 copies of the T-55.

[jaichind]

I am very impressed at what Taiwan became after Chiang Kai-shek finally died - a prosperous free-market democracy. It is SO much easier to like Taiwan over China - the shining ally versus the ominous enemy. I understand that China feels reunification will happen at some point...but quite frankly, Taiwan has a point: China should change to meet IT, not the other way around. I believe that on Taiwan itself, the pro-reunification folks are still a majority...although every year that passes with China still a blustering, corrupt, repressive state probably makes that sentiment ebb a little bit more. After all, given the level of Chinese interference in Hong Kong's political system, why should any Taiwanese who supports democracy believe anything positive China says about 'one country, two systems'?

It doesn't mean Taiwan will be able to resist Chinese pressure forever, of course, but I think there will be a lot more bumps on the road to reunification than China wants to admit.

The fact is that the current wealth on Taiwan Province was due mainly because of the policies of Chiang Kai-Shek and the KMT regime.  Chiang's son Chiang Jin-Guo took over in 1975 and was in charge until 1988 followed by KMT leader Lee Deng-Hui.  Both KMT leaders had policies that were less successful on the long run.  The failure to push forward with a second land reform in 1992 made for a much worse distribution of income.  The 1950-3 land reform under Chiang Kai-Shek's regime paved the way for economic success. 

[opebo]

No nation will ever dump all its dollars.  no nation would ever put itself in a position where it cannot buy oil on the open market.

Oil will soon be denominated in Euros. 

In the above argument between Al and Goldie, I would have to agree with Al.  Those who rule China couldn't care less about the opinion of the outside world or of a mere 100 million of their subjects.  Its a cultural thing, and they have a fairly awful culture.  Not the worst in the world, by any means, but a fairly bad one.  And halitosis.  I could barely stand to go indoors when I visited Singapore!

[jaichind]

I believe the current situation is the following.  The USA will eventually sell out the Taipei regime to the PRC at some future date.  The alternative to that would be for the USA to ensure the long term seperation of Taiwan Province from the rest of China.  This means that the USA will be faced with another Cold War where the PRC will spend the next 50 years to overturn the USA world order.  A war the USA might very well lose.

Much more likely is the USA will sell out the Taipei regime, for a high price.  The USA is like a farmer holding a cage with a chicken (aka Taiwan Province) haggleing with a store owner (PRC) for a right price to sell the chicken.  In the meantime, the farmer and store owner would want to make sure that the chicken does not escape from the cage (declare independence.)  The farmer would want to make sure that the store owner does not take the chicken by force for free (opposing PRC attack on Taiwan Province and provinding the Taipei regime with some weapons.)  The chicken senses its doom and wants to work for its escape by tricking the farmer and store owners to come to blows as well as get tools to break the lock on the cage (various attempts to provoke an armed conflice betwen PRC and USA plus trying to get offensive weapons.)  Of course both the farmer and store owner will prevent this as the farmer would be deprived of his payoff (various strategic concessions by PRC that it might be willing to part with at this stage) and of course the store owner will be deprived of the chicken (reunification.)  

For me the correctly strategy for the Taipei regime would be to work out a deal directly with the PRC regime ASAP.  One day the PRC might just pay the price the USA is asking for if it sees too much risk in taking care of this issue on its own without the USA.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Korea is an interesting wildcard in all this.  The same Sino-Japanese War that caused China to cede Taiwan to Japan also forced China to recognize Korean independence (an independence that lasted only until the Russo-Japanese War a decade later, but I digress).  I could actually see Kim Jong Il if he starts feeling betrayed by Beijing supporting the cause of Taiwanese independence.  Yes, he's a nutso, but he's a nutso with nuclear weapons.  Kim's unpredicatbility is yet another reason arguing against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan.  It's not impossible, but it's not happeneing any time soon.

[Moooooo]

Hey, I didnt write that text, but it sounded pretty on point to me so I posted it.  If China owns a ton of our debt why can't they say "Pay up please"?

[opebo]

 

For me the correctly strategy for the Taipei regime would be to work out a deal directly with the PRC regime ASAP.  One day the PRC might just pay the price the USA is asking for if it sees too much risk in taking care of this issue on its own without the USA.

I liked your chicken-in-a-cage story.  But wouldn't getting nuclear weapons be a better option for the Taiwanese nation?  Certainly shouldn't be so hard to get..

I would love to see that!

[jaichind]

 

For me the correctly strategy for the Taipei regime would be to work out a deal directly with the PRC regime ASAP.  One day the PRC might just pay the price the USA is asking for if it sees too much risk in taking care of this issue on its own without the USA.

I liked your chicken-in-a-cage story.  But wouldn't getting nuclear weapons be a better option for the Taiwanese nation?  Certainly shouldn't be so hard to get..

I would love to see that!

I am afraid not.  Both the farmer (USA) and store owner (PRC) already identified the chicken from gettings the keys (getting nukes) as a threat to the deal they will make in the future.  PRC already announced that any attempts on ROC regime to get nukes will result in an all out assult.  ROC actually had a secret nuke program until the late 1980s and the USA forced them to shut it down once they found out.  Same thing, both USA and PRC have a deal to make and no one (or chicken) will stop them from making this deal.  Both sides are still probing each other on the exact details of such a deal but deal they will.  This would explain why Bush was very angry whenever there is any talk of Taiwan Independence.  It is taking the goods he plan to sell out of his hands.

[jaichind]

Hey, I didnt write that text, but it sounded pretty on point to me so I posted it.  If China owns a ton of our debt why can't they say "Pay up please"?

They can by selling US treasuries on the market.  Result, US treasuries tumble as other holders of US treasuries also sell.  US dollar falls dramatically and the value PRC holdings of US assets as foreign reserves (over $600 billion) falls dramatically.  The PRC will screw itself by doing this.  Best way out is for US savings rate to rise over the next few years and the US current account deficit will fall.  This way PRC and other US treasuries holders and slowly shift out of US dollars into Euro, Yen or even PRC's RMB without triggering a crisis.
 

[opebo]

 

For me the correctly strategy for the Taipei regime would be to work out a deal directly with the PRC regime ASAP.  One day the PRC might just pay the price the USA is asking for if it sees too much risk in taking care of this issue on its own without the USA.

I liked your chicken-in-a-cage story.  But wouldn't getting nuclear weapons be a better option for the Taiwanese nation?  Certainly shouldn't be so hard to get..

I would love to see that!

I am afraid not.  Both the farmer (USA) and store owner (PRC) already identified the chicken from gettings the keys (getting nukes) as a threat to the deal they will make in the future.  PRC already announced that any attempts on ROC regime to get nukes will result in an all out assult.  ROC actually had a secret nuke program until the late 1980s and the USA forced them to shut it down once they found out.  Same thing, both USA and PRC have a deal to make and no one (or chicken) will stop them from making this deal.  Both sides are still probing each other on the exact details of such a deal but deal they will.  This would explain why Bush was very angry whenever there is any talk of Taiwan Independence.  It is taking the goods he plan to sell out of his hands.

I'm just surprised that it is that hard to get nukes!  Taiwan is a pretty advanced country. 

As for American motivations, it is hard to imagine that any token 'concessions' they could get in return for abandoning Taiwan would be as effective a block to Chinese power as a nuclear armed Taiwan would be.