Would Georgia be a D state without the mountains?

[Adam Griffin]

Yes, 51-48 (2008).



Just from a quick glance, I'd guess that it would have been 49-49 in 2012.

EDIT: dang, a deluge of posts beat me to it

[Adam Griffin]

Looking at the 2008-2012 swing, it looks like Southern Georgia stayed relatively the same, but Northern Georgia trended strongly to the Republican, so this new and mountainless Georgia might have been won by the same percentage in 2012 as 2008.

Looking at that, yeah, you're probably right. It is possible that Fulton's diff in swing to Romney versus the swings for Obama in the south might have allowed Romney to gain a point over McCain; there's only 3 Obama swing counties on there in "New Georgia" that have more than 100k people.

[Adam Griffin]

Isn't this like saying that IL votes like IN if you remove Cook county?

Nyes... as that's an even larger part of the state, and not unlike saying Maryland would be a Republican state if you removed the DC suburbs - ie pure lunacy territory. This is more like saying Virginia would still be a Republican state if you removed the DC suburbs.

Actually, Virginia would be an even worse example. Not that any of these scenarios really matter, but it would need 60% of its population from the most Democratic areas removed to achieve the swing (12 points) that the removal of just 20% of Georgia's population from the most Republican areas produced in my above map. Maryland would need 29% of its population (from Prince George's & Montgomery Counties) removed, and Illinois would need 32% of its population removed (the northern 2/3 of Cook/south to Evergreen Park, minus the areas of Barrington, Streamwood & Hoffman Estates in the NW) to achieve the same swing.