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  Same-sex marriage map by county/state
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Author Topic: Same-sex marriage map by county/state  (Read 7895 times)
President Griffin
Adam Griffin
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« on: December 26, 2013, 10:22:10 pm »
« edited: February 04, 2015, 04:52:25 pm by NE Rep. Griffin »

This is a project that Gass3268 and I worked on many months ago. Once it was finished, he was going to post it but apparently his computer had crashed and it was never given its own thread - we just now figured out this was the case.
 
The map shows the most recent statewide referendum/initiative on same-sex marriage by state; pretty straightforward, really. Alaska and Hawaii's boroughs/counties are colored with the statewide result, but all others are county-by-county. Green is pro-SSM/anti-ban and red is vice-versa.





And one that adjusts the results to compare to the national support/opposition at the time of each state's vote:

Once again, AK/HI are colored solid based on their statewide vote. In this case, I went by the 10-point brackets and did my best to round/approximate by year depending on what the national polls showed. There will inevitably be some cases where a given county might shift into another bracket (if I had redone the map entirely, counting by hand each individual result), but the trend by and large is sound.

Full-size map


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muon2
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« Reply #1 on: December 26, 2013, 11:01:36 pm »

It would be interesting to weight the result by the national poll numbers at the time of the vote. I expect it would cause states to stand out less due to the year of the data.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #2 on: December 27, 2013, 12:17:07 am »

If you know, how recent was that South Dakota measure taken? Its easily sticks out as lighter than its surroundings.
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Flake
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« Reply #3 on: December 27, 2013, 01:05:53 am »

If you know, how recent was that South Dakota measure taken? Its easily sticks out as lighter than its surroundings.

I think the problem with the South Dakota one was because it was worded so badly that ~ 46% voted in favor of gay marriage.
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President Griffin
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« Reply #4 on: December 27, 2013, 01:26:10 am »

If you know, how recent was that South Dakota measure taken? Its easily sticks out as lighter than its surroundings.

I think the problem with the South Dakota one was because it was worded so badly that ~ 46% voted in favor of gay marriage.

This is probably correct. ND was in 2004 & SD was in 2006, iirc.

It would be interesting to weight the result by the national poll numbers at the time of the vote. I expect it would cause states to stand out less due to the year of the data.

Don't give me any ideas Sad
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bgwah
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« Reply #5 on: December 27, 2013, 08:39:38 pm »

I've always thought about making this map. Good work.

Even with some minor temporal inconsistencies, the patterns are very clear. The wording of the initiative/amendment also matters, but only South Dakota obviously sticks out because of this.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #6 on: January 03, 2014, 01:36:07 pm »

All states should be gray when deciding the rights of a minority group.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #7 on: January 05, 2014, 10:42:37 pm »

Always have been interested in what an Illinois map would look like in the year 2014. This is my best guess:



Chicago and its suburbs being the anchor for the majority "Yes" vote with some support in college towns, the quad cities, and the STL suburbs.
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Horus
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« Reply #8 on: January 06, 2014, 02:01:48 am »

Always have been interested in what an Illinois map would look like in the year 2014. This is my best guess:



Chicago and its suburbs being the anchor for the majority "Yes" vote with some support in college towns, the quad cities, and the STL suburbs.

Gay marriage would definitely pass (stay legal) in Illinois, but I'm not at all sure the counties near St. Louis would vote for it. They might be Dem-leaning but don't the St. Louis suburbs have a heavy SoCon streak?
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #9 on: January 07, 2014, 01:19:35 am »

Always have been interested in what an Illinois map would look like in the year 2014. This is my best guess:



Chicago and its suburbs being the anchor for the majority "Yes" vote with some support in college towns, the quad cities, and the STL suburbs.

Gay marriage would definitely pass (stay legal) in Illinois, but I'm not at all sure the counties near St. Louis would vote for it. They might be Dem-leaning but don't the St. Louis suburbs have a heavy SoCon streak?

Somewhat so, but I think gay marriage is popular enough at this point that they would be on board. They are certainly not as blue dog as some of the rural Dem-leaning counties that I have marked in red on this map.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #10 on: January 07, 2014, 12:44:36 pm »

If Kentucky got to vote again, same-sex marriage would probably pass in the counties of Jefferson and Fayette, and possibly Franklin, Warren, and Rowan.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #11 on: January 07, 2014, 02:06:36 pm »

No Cincy burbs?
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #12 on: January 07, 2014, 02:07:51 pm »


I seriously doubt it.
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President Griffin
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« Reply #13 on: February 04, 2015, 03:06:53 am »
« Edited: February 04, 2015, 04:34:18 pm by NE Rep. Griffin »

It would be interesting to weight the result by the national poll numbers at the time of the vote. I expect it would cause states to stand out less due to the year of the data.

Don't give me any ideas Sad

I had an idea! Tongue Here it is:

Once again, AK/HI are colored solid based on their statewide vote. In this case, I went by the 10-point brackets and did my best to round/approximate by year depending on what the national polls showed. There will inevitably be some cases where a given county might shift into another bracket (if I had redone the map entirely, counting by hand each individual result), but the trend by and large is sound.

Full-size map

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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #14 on: February 04, 2015, 12:27:06 pm »

If it wins the county with Cincinnati, it wins the county with Louisville.
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President Griffin
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« Reply #15 on: February 04, 2015, 04:26:40 pm »

If it wins the county with Cincinnati, it wins the county with Louisville.

Hamilton County, OH: 56% against
Jefferson County, KY: 60% against
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #16 on: February 04, 2015, 04:30:13 pm »

If it wins the county with Cincinnati, it wins the county with Louisville.

Hamilton County, OH: 56% against
Jefferson County, KY: 60% against

Both in 2004???

Remember, the suburbs of Cincinnati are far more conservative than the city.
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President Griffin
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« Reply #17 on: February 04, 2015, 04:38:04 pm »

If it wins the county with Cincinnati, it wins the county with Louisville.

Hamilton County, OH: 56% against
Jefferson County, KY: 60% against

Both in 2004???

Remember, the suburbs of Cincinnati are far more conservative than the city.

That doesn't seem to matter here, apparently (does Jefferson, KY even have suburbs?).

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/KY/I/01/county.002.html
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/OH/I/01/county.001.html

Even odder is the fact that Hamilton County has a larger black population than Jefferson County, KY. It was quite common for blacks to be heavily against SSM pre-Obama endorsement; they were the most "out of step" reason as to why Prop 8 passed in CA.



In addition, I have updated the map with NC's adjustments; I swear I did them, but maybe they weren't saved the first time. In any case, NC's results now are now accurate in comparison to national support in 2012.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #18 on: February 04, 2015, 11:32:14 pm »

Very interesting, especially because this will probably never be voted on again (except perhaps ceremonially).
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Alcon
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« Reply #19 on: February 09, 2015, 08:55:30 am »

Great map idea!

I think you should consider estimating an adjustment for South Dakota and North Carolina, maybe based on the performance for the first AZ ban attempt (time-adjusted) versus the successful one.  It's approximate, but both of those states stick out.  (Not sure which other ones were bans, but they're less apparent on the map.)

I imagine there are probably people who would have voted "No" on both bans (like Minnesota's) and pro-votes (ME/MD/WA) but those are probably too small in number to bother adjusting for.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #20 on: February 09, 2015, 02:30:10 pm »

Great update to the map! South Dakota really sticks out, doesn't it?
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nclib
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« Reply #21 on: February 09, 2015, 10:57:26 pm »

I think you should consider estimating an adjustment for South Dakota and North Carolina, maybe based on the performance for the first AZ ban attempt (time-adjusted) versus the successful one.  It's approximate, but both of those states stick out.  (Not sure which other ones were bans, but they're less apparent on the map.)

Our Amendment One was very strict, though NC still has far more socially liberal areas than TN/SC/GA etc.
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« Reply #22 on: February 14, 2015, 05:04:37 pm »

Perhaps there could also be an adjustment for voting to ban gay marriage AND civil unions, vs bans of gay marriage only?
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