if the TXGOP had left Frost alone in 2004
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  if the TXGOP had left Frost alone in 2004
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Author Topic: if the TXGOP had left Frost alone in 2004  (Read 2891 times)
freepcrusher
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« on: February 11, 2015, 04:07:49 PM »

and then drawn the TX-33 for him in 2011, would he have lost renomination in 2012 to a black or hispanic?
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #1 on: February 11, 2015, 08:55:44 PM »

I don't see why.

Gene Green has been representing a majority Hispanic district in Houston for over twenty years.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #2 on: February 11, 2015, 10:05:55 PM »

Not sure that given the atrocious Democratic turnout in 2010 that Frost would've survived 2010 even in his old district. Stenholm and Chet Edwards would be goners for sure.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #3 on: February 11, 2015, 11:41:51 PM »

Not sure that given the atrocious Democratic turnout in 2010 that Frost would've survived 2010 even in his old district. Stenholm and Chet Edwards would be goners for sure.

actually Edwards by some sort of miracle was able to survive 2004 and won [relatively] easily in 06 and 08.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #4 on: February 12, 2015, 12:02:45 PM »

Not sure that given the atrocious Democratic turnout in 2010 that Frost would've survived 2010 even in his old district. Stenholm and Chet Edwards would be goners for sure.

actually Edwards by some sort of miracle was able to survive 2004 and won [relatively] easily in 06 and 08.

His 2004 opponent, Arlene Wohlgemuth, was an extremely divisive state representative who was hurt by some state/local issues and a general College Station-versus-Waco/rural areas rivalry within that district. In 2006, he benefited from the anti-GOP wave. In 2008, he was running against a joke opponent who had no money and he still got less than 55% of the vote. That didn't bode well for him.

Getting Killeen and Fort Hood taken out of his district made him a dead man walking. Up to that point, he had been a very military-centric bring-home-the-bacon politician focused on VA and DoD funding. After redistricting, he basically had no constituency and no clear agenda for how to represent right wingers in Bryan/College Station who don't want anything from the feds.

Now College Station has the representation it deserves, a do-nothing Aggie businessman who follows the Tea Party's voting scorecard to a T and largely keeps his mouth shut apart from that.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #5 on: February 14, 2015, 11:18:44 AM »

I'll admit to not knowing much about TX politics, but it interests me that College Station is so right-wing for being a big college town. Are A&M students more predisposed to conservatism than, say, T-Tech or UT students? Obviously I can see why Baylor or TCU students would be, I'm just curious about that dynamic.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #6 on: February 16, 2015, 02:10:31 AM »

I'll admit to not knowing much about TX politics, but it interests me that College Station is so right-wing for being a big college town. Are A&M students more predisposed to conservatism than, say, T-Tech or UT students? Obviously I can see why Baylor or TCU students would be, I'm just curious about that dynamic.
Yes.  It is the agricultural university.  You will find that students at any of the agricultural schools are more conservative than the liberal arts schools, whether in Washington, Utah, Colorado, Kansas, Iowa, Indiana, Oklahoma, Mississippi, Alabama, Florida, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virgina, Arizona, Oregon, New Mexico, Michigan.

A&M was an all-male school into the 1950s.  It also has a strong military tradition, with membership in the corps mandatory.   While other schools try to get ROTC off campus, A&M embraces it.

If a student goes to A&M, and hates it, they will transfer.  Otherwise they will bond to its traditions, and want their children to go there.  They will be more conservative, and their children will be more conservative than those who go to to TU.

Tech students will be more conservative because students will be drawn particularly from West Texas, where it is regarded as their state university.  But that would be like saying that students at Nebraska will be more conservative than those at Rutgers.

Bryan would be a small country town without A&M,  and College Station is mostly A&M students (it used to be the train station for the college).
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jimrtex
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« Reply #7 on: February 16, 2015, 02:11:47 AM »

and then drawn the TX-33 for him in 2011, would he have lost renomination in 2012 to a black or hispanic?
Frost moved from his district to challenge Sessions in 2004.
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freepcrusher
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« Reply #8 on: February 16, 2015, 04:19:01 AM »

Not sure that given the atrocious Democratic turnout in 2010 that Frost would've survived 2010 even in his old district.

Also Frost's 2002 district was 63% Obama. No southern state could elect a republican in a seat like that.
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