2014 state legislature (general) elections
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greenforest32
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« on: December 30, 2013, 05:32:51 AM »

We had a good thread on the 2012 state legislature general elections so I figure one for 2014 would be interesting.

Any bets or insights on potential changes in control? Some notable flips that could happen in November 2014 are Republicans winning the Iowa state senate (would mean R-trifecta in 2015+ if they hold the Governorship and state house) and the West Virginia state house.

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For reference, the current partisan composition of state legislatures following the 2012, 2013 general elections*:

http://www.ncsl.org/legislatures-elections/elections/statevote.aspx


*The Washington and New York state senates are controlled by Republicans due to several DINOs caucusing with them
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #1 on: December 30, 2013, 05:56:00 AM »

Glad you made a thread on this. Its very hard to follow state legislative elections, as the media really doesn't bother to go that in depth (and for obvious reasons). You really have to be a political junkie like me to care or know about this. Anyway, the only thing I do with these races is follow the partisan control of both houses for each state. I don't bother to actually go into the elections (too much time) but just to see what flips. And its interesting to see some republicans still surviving in the upper Northeast, and some democrats still surviving in white districts in the Clinton south. Here's a few interesting points I realized.

 - If republicans pickup the governor in Arkansas, they will have full control, although many other statewide offices could still belong to the democrats (as they do now)
 - In Kentucky, republicans are awfully close to picking up the House, if they do this, as well as pickup the governor in 2015, they will finally have full control of the state.
 - As you pointed out Iowa could have full republican control.
 - Assuming democrats pickup Pennsylvania governor, they could be awfully close to picking up both state chambers as well (republican majorities are weak) which could lead them to more power.

I might post another thing containing partisan control numbers for all the states.
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« Reply #2 on: December 30, 2013, 06:47:26 AM »

New Hampshire's Senate has a decent chance of flipping to the Democrats. The NHGOP is probably the worst GOP in the entire country - they're in a total bind to the point where they've resorted to bringing in a candidate from Massachusetts and because of that, they've offended the base to the point where they're all getting behind a collection of nutjobs. My state's Democratic Party, in contrast, is united, from the progressives like Carol Shea-Porter to the centrists like John Lynch.

The Senate's still been relatively far-right, and mostly voted to keep the policies set by the 2010 legislature. Their vote against Medicaid expansion and the controversy about Senate President Bragdon getting a job at the Local Government Center will definitely hurt them, especially if Gatsas (who's the only potential credible candidate Republicans have - there's no way Odell or Forrester will risk a swing seat that they make safe) decides not to run for governor. There's also the fact that the linchpin for Republican control who only won by ~200 votes hasn't exactly stayed out of trouble this cycle.

And even if he loses, we're still recruiting good candidates. There's rumblings about former alderman Patrick Arnold (who came out of almost nowhere to give Gatsas a run for his money) taking on David Boutin (who won by 400), and state rep. Chris Muns has already announced a run against Nancy Stiles (who's a serial flip-flopper to the point where Romney would blush, and most likely would take a hit from abandoning the positions that made her win in 2012). I'm fairly optimistic about our chances here.

*Republicans will probably pick up Kentucky's House next year. Definitely WV's.
*Iowa could have full GOP control, very true.
*But coming from someone who lives in PA for most of the year, and as much as I hate that piece of human garbage Corbett, they won't be taking the Senate or the House unless there's a scandal that happens.
*And if the local wave holds up in CO, the Republicans could gain the Senate (or maybe the House).
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Zioneer
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« Reply #3 on: December 30, 2013, 10:35:45 AM »

The Utah Democrats are doomed and insignificant, as usual. Matheson's retirement announcement has sent them into even more a tizzy-fit, though. A lot of the money that he used was also used by legislative Dem campaigns. So while normally we might be able to pick up a state house or senate seat or two, we're probably going to lose one. Again. Senate Minority Leader Gene Davis's seat is particularly vulnerable, as he only won it by 2 points each in 2010 and 2006. Not sure if his seat has been changed much in redistricting.

We also have mostly terrible candidates, with a few exceptions. The Latino community is flexing their muscles, and they seem to field decent candidates. Of course, recruiting Democrats in Utah is mostly a crapshoot in any case.
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Fed. Pac. Chairman Devin
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« Reply #4 on: December 30, 2013, 11:03:46 AM »

I could see one or two Senate seats flipping here but no big gains. The state house is probably safe D for now though.
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LeBron
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« Reply #5 on: December 31, 2013, 12:25:11 AM »

For Ohio, unfortunately like WI, NC, TX and others, they're gerrymandered in. However, I wouldn't be surprised if Democrats could pick off a few seats next year in the State House if Kasich's approvals go down, but even then if they don't, there's still 2016 to knock off a few more. Republicans control our House 60 to 39 and in the Senate have a 23 to 10 2/3rd majority, so control of our legislature really isn't going anywhere for awhile. If Kasich does wins re-election though, that sets the Ohio Democrats up good for 2018 in winning the Governorship and if they can also win Sec. of State or Auditor, Democrats will control the Apportionment Board for the next decade. That's the only real way the Ohio Senate would ever flip control to the Democrats ever again either.

It seems likely that Republicans could lose the PA State Senate because of Corbett. If Dems. do pick off the Governorship/Lt. Governorship, then Democrats only need 2 seats to flip control. The Wisconsin Senate also only needs a net change of 2 seats for the majority to flip, but if Walker wins re-election, then I bet Republicans can still narrowly hold it despite the amount of controversy Ellis has created nationwide.

Arizona might be another one to watch to. Democrats are increasing their balance of power in both houses and could really come close next year to a change in control, but I don't think it will materialize completely until at least 2016.

The CO, IA, and WV Democratic State Senates are also at risk of falling to the GOP while NH the opposite. As was already mentioned, the KY House of Reps. is in the biggest trouble out of perhaps all of them, and the MI House of Reps. should also be closely watched to because only 5 seats need to be lost there by Republicans and of course, the GOP leadership there is very unpopular.

And then with the South, if NC keeps on passing extreme legislation through that McCrory signs, I could see Republicans losing maybe a few seats, but as of right now they hold such huge super majorities in both houses that it would be impossible for either house to flip next year.
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rbt48
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« Reply #6 on: December 31, 2013, 01:02:05 AM »

I could see one or two Senate seats flipping here but no big gains. The state house is probably safe D for now though.
So, you see a chance for the Republicans to get a 25th seat in the WA State Senate, and hence, a majority?
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rbt48
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« Reply #7 on: December 31, 2013, 01:04:53 AM »

Here is the current partisan lineup, though I probably have more than a few errors in my spreadsheet:
http://www.rbt48.com/weather/Presidential_Elections/2012_State_Legislatures_post_election.pdf
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« Reply #8 on: December 31, 2013, 01:33:47 AM »

Yeah, I know Democrats gained a seat in NH's House (which could also flip if Republicans stop sh**tting the bed).
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greenforest32
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« Reply #9 on: December 31, 2013, 03:09:08 PM »

There are 6 states (Alabama, Arkansas, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia) that have a simple majority override for a Governor's veto as opposed to a 3/5 or 2/3 supermajority so, assuming they have majorities in the legislature, Republicans will effectively control Arkansas whether a Democrat wins the Governorship or not.

The same will be true in Kentucky if they win the the state house next year.

Of course the Governor can do things like executive orders, pardons, etc but when it comes to legislation they have little power in these 6 states.

See: http://thecabin.net/interact/editorials/2013-03-08/veto

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« Reply #10 on: December 31, 2013, 06:02:50 PM »

Yeah, basically that.

IIRC Phil said something about a Senator in a swing district retiring, so Democrats are going to have to donate some resources to that seat instead of GOP seats (congrats, Phil). He can explain why I'm not confident in Democrats taking the legislature better than I can.
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Frodo
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« Reply #11 on: January 01, 2014, 12:56:06 AM »

The CO, IA, and WV Democratic State Senates are also at risk of falling to the GOP while NH the opposite. As was already mentioned, the KY House of Reps. is in the biggest trouble out of perhaps all of them, and the MI House of Reps. should also be closely watched to because only 5 seats need to be lost there by Republicans and of course, the GOP leadership there is very unpopular.

I knew the West Virginia House (in addition to the Kentucky House) will probably be under Republican control next year, but I never thought that the GOP also had a chance at taking over the West Virginia Senate as well.  They could probably narrow the margin in that chamber (currently 24D: 10R), but I would think that an outright takeover of that chamber is beyond their reach, at least this election cycle. 
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henster
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« Reply #12 on: January 01, 2014, 01:38:37 AM »

Will be interesting to see what happens in the WA State Senate next year I expect the two turnover Dems to be easily defeated but the Rs there may be able to hold a narrow outright majority.

And losses are almost guaranteed in CO I expect the State Senate to flip and some losses in the House not enough to flip the chamber but significant.
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muon2
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« Reply #13 on: January 01, 2014, 01:05:15 PM »

In IL the question is whether the Dems can hold their veto-proof majorities in the legislature. There aren't enough Senate seats up to affect the balance there, but all House seats are up and if the Pubs pick up a net of one seat, the veto-proof margin for the Dems will be gone.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #14 on: January 01, 2014, 02:42:18 PM »
« Edited: January 02, 2014, 12:27:32 AM by smoltchanov »

Will be interesting to see what happens in the WA State Senate next year I expect the two turnover Dems to be easily defeated but the Rs there may be able to hold a narrow outright majority.

And losses are almost guaranteed in CO I expect the State Senate to flip and some losses in the House not enough to flip the chamber but significant.

Tim Sheldon is very difficult to defeat (in fact, because of his rather conservative voting record, local liberal Democrats frequently tried to primary him, and always lost). Rodney Tom? More likely, but he is not easy target either - a former moderate Republican, who, later, switched (becoming a very moderate Democrat) and defeated Republican state Senator who was Minority Floor Leader.

In addition - Washington, with "top 2" system, doesn't have "primaries" now. And both Sheldon and Tom will get strong Indie and substantial Republican support
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bgwah
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« Reply #15 on: January 01, 2014, 05:00:07 PM »

I could see one or two Senate seats flipping here but no big gains. The state house is probably safe D for now though.
So, you see a chance for the Republicans to get a 25th seat in the WA State Senate, and hence, a majority?

One of the Democrats caucusing with them already could officially switch parties, I guess. Barring that, these seats were last up in 2010 and they won almost everything they could. Building on that would be extremely difficult and I expect them to be mostly on the defensive.
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Orser67
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« Reply #16 on: January 02, 2014, 03:56:51 PM »

The following look like houses that could plausibly flip, just based on the closeness in composition and the number of seats up for election:

Arkansas House 51-48 R
Arizona House 36-24 R
Arizona Senate 16-13 R
Colorado Senate 18-17 D
Colorado House 37-28 D
Iowa Senate 26-23 D
Iowa House 53-47 R
Kentucky House 54-45 R
Maine Senate 19-15 D
Michigan House 59-50 R
Minnesota House 73-61 D
Nevada Senate 11-10 D
New Hampshire House 219-179 D
New Hampshire Senate 13-11 R
New Mexico House 37-32 D
New York Senate 32-30 R Coalition
Oregon House 33-26 D
Oregon Senate 16-14 D
Pennsylvania House 110-92 R
Pennsylvania Senate 27-23 R
Washington Senate 25-23 R Coalition
Washington House 55-43 D
West Virginia House 54-46 D
Wisconsin Senate 18-15 R
Wisconsin House 57-39 R

Which of these can probably be eliminated as having a significant possibility of flipping partisan control? And did I miss any?
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mds32
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« Reply #17 on: January 02, 2014, 07:44:56 PM »

PA state senate can be flipped, the state house will likely not be contestable unless Corbett is blown out, which the likelihood of that is decreasing as he has stop some of the bleeding with a popular transportation bill and the democrats will face a bloody democratic primary. 
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« Reply #18 on: January 02, 2014, 09:10:25 PM »

Democrats picked up one more House seat. The only vacancy's in a safe Republican district so it's closer to 220-180. But knowing how much of a disaster NH's Republican Party is, that's not likely.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #19 on: January 02, 2014, 10:09:19 PM »

Kentucky House is 54-46 D. There's probably too many Republican weaknesses to flip it (Ben Waide's scandal, Joe Fischer's extremism, McConnell's weak numbers, etc.).

Also, this is the first election under the redistricted maps, which favored urban areas.
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #20 on: January 02, 2014, 10:30:18 PM »

The Kentucky GOP is very, very dangerous, especially since there's no executive check on legislative power.
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« Reply #21 on: January 03, 2014, 02:59:58 AM »
« Edited: January 05, 2014, 04:04:05 PM by Bill Belichick's Hoodie »

I'm feeling bored, but here's a district-by-district breakdown of the NH Senate. I'd say there's a chance Democrats take the Senate.

  • SD1: Safe D. Jeff Woodburn won with 59% last time and is fairly moderate so I'm very confident he wins again. A good fit for the district.
  • SD2: Likely R. Jeannie Forrester has steadily risen through the ranks to become the Finance committee chairwoman, and despite her even seat, has held on with about 54% in 2012. Easily one of the strongest candidates the GOP has.
  • SD3: Safe R. Even some of you guys know who Jeb Bradley is.
  • SD4: Safe D. Ever since redistricting put Dover in here it's gotten 13 points more Democratic. Watters is a weak candidate who might lose if the wave grows to 2010's height, but overall, he should be safe.
  • SD5: Safe D. Joe Osgood, a state representative who was probably the best candidate Republicans had here, only got around 36% of the vote. Republicans don't have a chance here in this Hanover and Claremont-based district.
  • SD6: Leans R (RW). Senator Sam Cataldo barely won with 51% and his challenger, Richard Leonard, is looking for a rematch. I like his chances if Cataldo retires (he'll be 77), but he just got elected. I'm admittedly not up by Rochester that much at all, so I'm cautiously optimistic. Cataldo did around the same as Romney did, but he's very conservative.
  • SD7: Lean D. Andrew Hosmer may have won decisively against Youssef, but the results are very deceiving: Youssef got caught impersonating an endorsement from attorney/conservative activist Ed Mosca (who represented his ex-wife in their divorce). It was also revealed that he dodged income taxes and child support payments. However, Youssef has decided to run again in 2014, and of course, if he wins, it's safe Democratic, but I'm not betting they'll be this lucky again.
  • SD8: Safe R (RW). Odell has been fairly moderate and also has been floated for higher office. He's very prominent in the party, chairs the powerful Ways and Means Committee, and he greatly overperformed Romney. However, he will be 71, so Odell may call it quits.
  • SD9: Toss-Up/Tilt D. Sanborn is one of the more reliably conservative members of the chamber and is also advancing, but like I said, he has a strong tendency to put his foot in his mouth. Couple that with a 200-vote win last time and he has a good chance of losing.
  • SD-10: Safe D. It's Keene. Democrats will be fine.
  • SD-11: Leans R (RW). Peter Bragdon may have gone unopposed in 2012, but ever since the LGC scandal where he was pressured to step down from his Senate presidency, Democrats have a very good chance if they can find the right candidate. However, Bragdon could just step down altogether and have a graceful exit from the Senate. No way he goes unopposed this time.
  • SD-12: Toss-up (RW). Peggy Gilmour only won by 1000 votes in this swing district. She's also getting up there in age, and if she retires or Republicans recruit someone good, they have a much better chance at winning. After all, this is a 51.9% Romney district.
  • SD-13: Safe D: This district is ancestrally Democratic and isn't moving to Republicans. Lambert's win here was a fluke.
  • SD-14: Safe R: Although the Republican only got 53%, the Libertarian got 6% and the Democrat got 40%. Write this place off.
  • SD-15: Safe D: The safest seat in the Union. Sylvia Larsen has been here since 1994, and this seat is reliably safe. She regularly comes close to 70% each time she runs.
  • SD-16: Toss-Up. David Boutin may be leading our equivalent of the House Appropriations Committee, but he only squeaked by 350 votes. The good news is that a libertarian received 950 votes. The bad news is that Patrick Arnold, the Democratic nominee for Manchester mayor who was 940 votes away from beating Ted Gatsas in an off-off year, is considering a run in this district. With a stronger libertarian candidate or a candidate like Arnold, Boutin may very well fall.
  • SD-17: Likely R. Reagan is fairly moderate, and his district tilts Republican too. I think he's got this.
  • SD-18: Toss-Up/Tilts D. Donna Soucy won by much more than expected here. No real idea about Gail Barry, but Arthur Beaudry's an independent in every sense of the word. Should probably say a lot about her.
  • SD-19: Safe R. Rausch, despite his district's leanings, overperformed Romney by a lot. He's fine.
  • SD-20: Safe D (RW). Lou D'Allesandro is a fighter who even survived in 2010. He's been around forever, and despite being in an even district, has made this seat his until he retires (which could be very soon, he'll be 75).
  • SD-21: Safe D. Fuller Clark is an institution around Portsmouth, and her seat has become 4 points more Democratic since losing in 2010.
  • SD-22: Safe R. Morse is the Senate President for a reason. He's safe in this district.
  • SD-23: Likely R. Russell Prescott outperformed Romney by 2000 votes, and the inland parts of the district balance off the reliably Democratic outside.
  • SD-24: Leans R. Nancy Stiles is a good candidate, a moderate, and was the candidate who beat Martha Fuller Clark, but she's gotten a lot of flack for flip-flopping this cycle. Although her district is reliably Republican, she is a moderate and she is pro-gay marriage. Once again, the right candidate can win here, and Democrats have lots of room to hit her, but it will be an uphill battle.

Gun to my head, I say Sanborn, Gilmour, and Boutin fall. 12-12 Senate. But if Bragdon retires and Peter Hansen gets the nomination, Democrats can take that seat. After all, being famous for calling women "vagina's" tends to not bode well.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #22 on: January 03, 2014, 04:49:30 AM »

I'm feeling bored, but here's a district-by-district breakdown of the NH Senate. I'd say there's a chance Democrats take the Senate.

Is it too naughty to ask for similar list for NH House?? (yes, i know, that  there are 400 representatives in it))). As a minimum - i would like to know more about "mavericks": like David Kidder among Republicans (very moderate AFAIK) or Michael Garcia or Tim O'Flaherty (both are very conservative Democrats, IMHO)
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« Reply #23 on: January 03, 2014, 05:17:31 AM »

I'm feeling bored, but here's a district-by-district breakdown of the NH Senate. I'd say there's a chance Democrats take the Senate.

Is it too naughty to ask for similar list for NH House?? (yes, i know, that  there are 400 representatives in it))). As a minimum - i would like to know more about "mavericks": like David Kidder among Republicans (very moderate AFAIK) or Michael Garcia or Tim O'Flaherty (both are very conservative Democrats, IMHO)

I don't have that much work, but I can tell you that Kidder is safe as can be. Garcia has a small chance of losing if it's like 2010, and O'Flaherty has a decent chance of getting primaried. O'Flaherty isn't even a Democrat - he's actually a self-professed anarchist who's part of the Free State Project. He just "agrees more with liberal views".
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #24 on: January 03, 2014, 05:50:23 AM »

I'm feeling bored, but here's a district-by-district breakdown of the NH Senate. I'd say there's a chance Democrats take the Senate.

Is it too naughty to ask for similar list for NH House?? (yes, i know, that  there are 400 representatives in it))). As a minimum - i would like to know more about "mavericks": like David Kidder among Republicans (very moderate AFAIK) or Michael Garcia or Tim O'Flaherty (both are very conservative Democrats, IMHO)

I don't have that much work, but I can tell you that Kidder is safe as can be. Garcia has a small chance of losing if it's like 2010, and O'Flaherty has a decent chance of getting primaried. O'Flaherty isn't even a Democrat - he's actually a self-professed anarchist who's part of the Free State Project. He just "agrees more with liberal views".

Thanks!
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