Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins

[Hatman 🍁]

Suspect is a gun nut, surprise, surprise.

[Hatman 🍁]

Moncton is in lockdown mode today, schools are shut down, public transit shut down, people are encouraged to stay in their homes, especially in the neighbourhood where the RCMP officers were shot.

[Hatman 🍁]

CBC News livestream: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/new-brunswick/moncton-shooting-manhunt-on-for-killer-of-3-rcmp-officers-1.2665707

[Hatman 🍁]

Police have surrounded a building. People making fun of CBC for showing pictures of the area, because people can easily look it up (police are telling people to not reveal their locations).

[Hatman 🍁]

Suspect about to be in detention!

[Hatman 🍁]

Unconfirmed reports that the suspect is being taken into custody.

[Hatman 🍁]

New Brunswick poll is out:

Liberal: 53% (+10)!
PC: 28% (-3)
NDP: 16% (-5)
Green 4% (-1)

NDP still probably win a couple seats in Saint John with no numbers, but they won't make a substantial breakthrough.

Hmm, more likely just the leader.

[Hatman 🍁]

New Brunswick poll is out:

Liberal: 53% (+10)!
PC: 28% (-3)
NDP: 16% (-5)
Green 4% (-1)

NDP still probably win a couple seats in Saint John with no numbers, but they won't make a substantial breakthrough.

Hmm, more likely just the leader.

No, he announced he would run in his home city, in Fredericton West-Hanwell. It's a new riding, rurban, covering west Frederiction and rural areas, but I would guess a notional of 16% (NDP polled 16% in both former ridings (York and Fredericton-Silverwood).

I know that. I was saying that he will probably win his riding, but the NDP wont win anything else, even in Saint John.

[Hatman 🍁]

New Brunswick poll is out:

Liberal: 53% (+10)!
PC: 28% (-3)
NDP: 16% (-5)
Green 4% (-1)

NDP still probably win a couple seats in Saint John with no numbers, but they won't make a substantial breakthrough.

Hmm, more likely just the leader.

No, he announced he would run in his home city, in Fredericton West-Hanwell. It's a new riding, rurban, covering west Frederiction and rural areas, but I would guess a notional of 16% (NDP polled 16% in both former ridings (York and Fredericton-Silverwood).

I know that. I was saying that he will probably win his riding, but the NDP wont win anything else, even in Saint John.

I have huge doubts he will win in Frederiction. It's a quite weak area for NDP. I would think than if Cardy (the leader wins), they won Saint Jonh Harbour and at least another Saint John riding. Personally, I think they'll win nothing.

I don't know. He nearly won the Rothesay by-election, which is the richest riding in the province. I do think he picked the wrong Fredericton riding though. According to this: http://blunt-objects.blogspot.ca/2014/05/new-brunswick-provincial-redistribution.html he should be running in Fredericton South, not Fredericton West-Hanwell.

The south side of Fredericton is quite left leaning, the NDP won the area in the federal election.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yeah, the NDP's chance to become the Acadian Party was last election. Their numbers in Tracadie-Sheila will disappear, unless Yvon Godin makes the jump to provincial politics.

[Hatman 🍁]

Not saying Rothesay will be close, just saying Cardy is likely to have personal popularity that could help him win his riding.

[Hatman 🍁]

Question: How do people from Toronto/Vancouver afford their houses?

I always figured they could swing it because and there's more money there. But now, I'm looking at the median family incomes by city and TO/Van are lower than places like Halifax, Windsor and Saint John. What gives?

Higher rental rates?

I know I for one have given up any ideas of buying a home in the near future - and my personal income is higher than the median income for Ottawa.

[Hatman 🍁]

Obviously the BQ has been reduced to the most militant sovereigntists at this point. Good news, for sure.

[Hatman 🍁]

He's hiding something.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wonder if the Liberals will try to appear to run to the left of the NDP like they did provincially. Hopefully it will force the NDP to modernize some of their platform (like on marijuana).

[Hatman 🍁]

Looks like a miracle would be required at this point. The Liberal brand is clearly popular once again. Even though there's little connection between the federal Liberals, the fact that by the time of the next election, all but the three Prairie provinces will have Liberal governments (assuming NB and NL flip).

[Hatman 🍁]

Perhaps if the NDPQ runs.

[Hatman 🍁]

CTV's Bob Fife rates the Cabinet in his annual "Making the Grade" series. 5-day series that started yesterday. Also interesting cause 3/4 guys on this list are current or future leadership hopefuls.

Kenney: A+
Aglukkaq: F
MacKay: C-
Moore: B+
Poilievre: B

Poilievre should be an F as well.

[Hatman 🍁]

It's a tricky topic, because I wonder how much of the opposition to the TFW program is latent racism? Surely foreigners deserve jobs too. Wish they weren't low wage or temporary though.

[Hatman 🍁]

A sitting Tory MLA in New Brunswick will be running for the NDP in the provincial election in September. Exciting! Not sure if he is switching his allegiance in the Assembly, but it would bring the NDP seat total there up to 1

[Hatman 🍁]

A sitting Tory MLA in New Brunswick will be running for the NDP in the provincial election in September. Exciting! Not sure if he is switching his allegiance in the Assembly, but it would bring the NDP seat total there up to 1

Presumably no, unless the NDP have suddenly decided to make an exception in their floor crossing rules

That may be just a federal policy, but good point. Perhaps we will be an independent. The NB legislature still has him being PC, but the PCs have already removed him from their website.

[Hatman 🍁]

Love seeing all that orange in Edmonton, but remember that Brendan is just using a uniform proportional swing model with no riding adjustments (and why would he so far from the next election?)

Interestingly, these numbers give the WRP a one seat majority. Now, that's exciting.

[Hatman 🍁]

Do you consider yourself an "orange Tory"?

[Hatman 🍁]

Do you consider yourself an "orange Tory"?

To an extent, yes (presuming that I'm correctly inferring the meaning of "orange Tory").  I'm a proud and active member of the PC party here in Alberta, but I have absolutely no support for the federal Conservative Party (with the exception of certain individuals, such as Ted Menzies, whom I view positively).  Broadly speaking, I would define myself as having centre-left economic views and centre(-right) social/cultural views.  I want the government to be fiscally responsible, but I would rather the government temporarily run deficits/pick up moderate levels of debt instead of cutting program and infrastructure spending when times are bad.  Admittedly, if the NDP was a viable player in Calgary, I would have a harder time picking between the two parties.  But aside from certain policy items such as the flat tax (I prefer progressive tax systems) and alternative energy (while I believe in the importance of the oils ands, I also believe that we should be focusing more on alternative sources, especially solar), I feel quite at home in the current incarnation of the PC party.

Your PC scores in your profile show that you're left socially as well. Unless your views have changed?

[Hatman 🍁]

socially liberal except on drugs? Sounds like NDP policy

It's certainly strange to see someone become more socially conservative over time. It's usually the other way around.

Happy Canada Day everyone!

And a happy Dominion Day to you