Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins

[DC Al Fine]

I wonder what the hold up is for the Tories in Halifax.

The Liberals have nominated all four of their candidates and the NDP have 3/4 nominated (all except my riding). The Tories haven't nominated anyone yet. We're almost certainly running the guy we ran last time, since no one else is interested that I know of.

[DC Al Fine]

The quarterly Atlantic Canada poll is out

Newfoundland & Labrador
Lib: 60% (+2)
PC: 29% (+3)
NDP: 10% (-5) 

Nova Scotia
Lib: 64% (+1)
PC: 18% (-2)
NDP: 15% (+1)

PEI
Lib: 50% (+2)
PC: 23% (-5)
NDP: 15% (-1)
Green: 11% (+4)

New Brunswick
Lib: 52% (+4)
PC: 23% (-6)
NDP: 14% (-3)
Green: 9% (+5)


Takeaways:
1) NB Liberals are on their honeymoon after gaining office in September
2) David Coon's election has given the Greens more exposure
3) Holy crap the NS Liberals are popular

[DC Al Fine]

Question for Hatman and RogueBeaver or anyone else who wishes to comment

How many of the current crop of NDP Members of Parliament from Quebec will survive the next election in your estimation?

Roughly 30 are safe due to their only relevant opposition (the Bloc Quebecois) being in even worse shape than they are. These are mostly in rural Quebec and parts of Montreal.

10ish are lost causes. These are mostly in Montreal and will be picked up by the Liberals.

The remaining ridings will depend on vote splits. The Liberals will win a few ridings in rural Quebec, the Tories might be able to snag a seat or two around Quebec City, but the NDP should hold a few of these.

I expect the Bloc Quebecois & Forces et Democratie to not win any seats.

[DC Al Fine]

How does a party just give up like that?

Indeed. Something just doesn't make sense.

The most recent poll on wikipedia has the Tories up 6 points. That's nowhere near "all is lost" territory. What gives?

Also, there's still a core constituency that hates the PC's so I imagine there will be an alternative voice for conservatives next election, regardless of what happens.

[DC Al Fine]

Is a Wildrose implosion a potential catalyst for the Libertarians to finally become relevant somewhere?

Doubtful. Because a) Wildrose's best region is very socon. b) Its the Libertarians.

[DC Al Fine]

1) So of the 7, how many of those would be right wing hold outs?

2) Why the heck are they merging? The party is ok in the polls and Prentice is hardly an arch-conservative.

3) Polls! My kingdom for a poll!

[DC Al Fine]

If there's one province that doesn't need to "unite the right" it's Alberta. This is most disappointing. Just when Alberta politics were about to get interesting.

Indeed, the god of political junkies has turned his back on us

[DC Al Fine]

So has any compelling reason emerged for this merger? I was looking forward to the next election

It's not quite a merger yet... just a crippling mass defection.

As for reasons; careerism, access to power etc.

[DC Al Fine]

The PCs won a lot of support last election from moderates who normally vote Liberal/NDP in an effort to stop Wild Rose. This flies in the face of those people. One could say they get what they deserve, as someone on the centre-left should never settle for a party on the right (I'm looking at you, John Tory voters).

It should make for an interesting election in 2015.

Fantasy scenario: PC's crash and burn as lefties leave for progressive parties and right wingers go to Wildrose

[DC Al Fine]

Participated in a Forum poll today about the state if politics in Ontario. Got the seasonal questions about "Happy Holidays" vs. "Merry Christmas."

I was disappointed that they didn't ask where I place myself on the political spectrum. To them, I'll just look like a typical Liberal, which isn't very accurate. But whatevs. 

What are you exactly? I've never been able to figure it out.

[DC Al Fine]

Participated in a Forum poll today about the state if politics in Ontario. Got the seasonal questions about "Happy Holidays" vs. "Merry Christmas."

I was disappointed that they didn't ask where I place myself on the political spectrum. To them, I'll just look like a typical Liberal, which isn't very accurate. But whatevs. 

What are you exactly? I've never been able to figure it out.

People laugh when I say "pro-union centre-rightist," but I do think that's the most accurate description. In the end I guess it evens out to being a bit of a moderate. I will vote for the federal Conservatives for the foreseeable future, but the PCs in Ontario have disqualified themselves from contention during the last few elections. Probably would've voted for the party under Jon Tory. Christine Elliott may yet be able to win my vote. But right now I have to go for the Liberals, even though I'm disgusted by their lack of restraint in certain areas.

Thanks for the info. I don't follow Ontario politics too closely, but even I was tempted to vote Liberal last time. Too bad Wynne insisted on buggering up a decent solution to pension reform

Could you elaborate a bit on the the Liberals' "lack of restraint"?

[DC Al Fine]

My year end gift to myself: A decade's worth of Nova Scotia polls in graph form.

[DC Al Fine]

Given how uniform their distribution is, Wildrose could go seatless with those numbers.

[DC Al Fine]

Abacus has the Tories up 1 nationally.

Poll has some funky regionals. Liberals only up 12 in Atlantic, Tories only up 19 in Alberta.

[DC Al Fine]

Merry Christmas to all the Canuckleheads on Atlas

[DC Al Fine]

And here are the Newfoundland polls. Yes those are real numbers for the Tories. They managed to stay above 70% in the polls for 3+ years and broke 80% twice. Just freaking incredible. Also, how the mighty have fallen

[DC Al Fine]

I will be attending a wedding in Winnipeg this summer. Any ideas for stuff to do in that god forsaken hell hole Manitoba?

[DC Al Fine]

Mulcair promises PR if NDP wins election.

If only, if only...

[DC Al Fine]

Lorraine Michael has stepped down as NDP leader in Newfoundland. Hopefully they find someone good to replace her to save the party. Best person would be Jack Harris, but if he runs, you can kiss his federal seat goodbye for the NDP.

Would you prefer he go back to provincial politics or stick with the feds?

[DC Al Fine]

The Libertarian Party has changed its colours to Navy and Gold

[DC Al Fine]

Proof that there will be no Spring federal election?

I don't know why everyone keeps saying this is a thing.

[DC Al Fine]

Albertans will almost certainly be voting this spring.

Hopefully the oil issue makes the campaign more interesting than the expected PC landslide.

[DC Al Fine]

Stephen Harper begins to ban charities opposed to his ideas.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/dying-with-dignity-loses-charitable-status-after-political-activity-probe-1.2919706

How many years before we become a Christian Turkey?

Speaking as an accountant, your assessment is completely wrong.

Here's a quick rundown:

1) The interpretation bulletin which guides the audits was released in the Chretien administration and is based on legislation and case law from even earlier.
2) Charities are notoriously bad at their accounting and staying within CRA guidelines.
3) Dying with Dignity themselves admit that they overspent on political activities!

Frankly, the fact that only two charities have had their status revoked is a minor miracle and hardly indicative of a Harper-Tory conspiracy.

[DC Al Fine]

Stephen Harper begins to ban charities opposed to his ideas.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/dying-with-dignity-loses-charitable-status-after-political-activity-probe-1.2919706

How many years before we become a Christian Turkey?

Speaking as an accountant, your assessment is completely wrong.

Here's a quick rundown:

1) The interpretation bulletin which guides the audits was released in the Chretien administration and is based on legislation and case law from even earlier.
2) Charities are notoriously bad at their accounting and staying within CRA guidelines.
3) Dying with Dignity themselves admit that they overspent on political activities!

Frankly, the fact that only two charities have had their status revoked is a minor miracle and hardly indicative of a Harper-Tory conspiracy.

I'll believe you when a conservative charity loses its status too.

I don't know what else to tell you. You're veering off into conspiracy land.

[DC Al Fine]

Forum has the Tories at 25% in Quebec

Riiiiigght