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  Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins
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Author Topic: Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins  (Read 132162 times)
MaxQue
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« Reply #150 on: February 02, 2014, 06:00:19 pm »

PQ expects a spring election, not a winter one. Depends what happens with the budget. As I've said since the last election, fully expect Marois to win a second term. Question is majority or minority. I'm also tempted to believe that Couillard will lose his "leadership" (one Peq even compared him to Iggy in Le Devoir!) either through a PQ majority or like John Tory, losing his chosen seat.
 

They can't find him a safe seat in Montreal?

Worse, he currently have one (he got elected in a by-election in Outremont), but he is insisting on running in the seat of Roberval, where he has his chalet. It would only his 4th riding in 6 years being an MNA. Mont-Royal (Montreal safe seat) 2003-2007. In 2007, he decided in run in Jean-Talon (Quebec City), but resigned within a year. And, new, he came back in Outremont and wants to run in Roberval (rural Lac-St-Jean).
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #151 on: February 02, 2014, 06:05:11 pm »

PQ expects a spring election, not a winter one. Depends what happens with the budget. As I've said since the last election, fully expect Marois to win a second term. Question is majority or minority. I'm also tempted to believe that Couillard will lose his "leadership" (one Peq even compared him to Iggy in Le Devoir!) either through a PQ majority or like John Tory, losing his chosen seat.
 

They can't find him a safe seat in Montreal?

Worse, he currently have one (he got elected in a by-election in Outremont), but he is insisting on running in the seat of Roberval, where he has his chalet. It would only his 4th riding in 6 years being an MNA. Mont-Royal (Montreal safe seat) 2003-2007. In 2007, he decided in run in Jean-Talon (Quebec City), but resigned within a year. And, new, he came back in Outremont and wants to run in Roberval (rural Lac-St-Jean).

That's just bizarre. Why'd he jump from Montreal to QC? If I had a safe seat like Mont-Royal, I'd camp out there till I was 90 Tongue
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MaxQue
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« Reply #152 on: February 03, 2014, 12:15:16 am »

http://www.ctvnews.ca/sci-tech/tangle-of-rules-and-procedures-strangles-federal-government-tweets-1.1667110

Conservative "small government" ideology at work, surely.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #153 on: February 03, 2014, 12:39:31 pm »

Finally a real Ontario poll, from Nanos: Liberals lead 36/28/27. The Tories are at their lowest point since they were last in government. Though Greens are polling at 8, which probably wouldn't hold up in an election. Still, this is all MOE movement since last Nanos in November was 36/31/26.

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MaxQue
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« Reply #154 on: February 03, 2014, 01:40:21 pm »

Finally a real Ontario poll, from Nanos: Liberals lead 36/28/27. The Tories are at their lowest point since they were last in government. Though Greens are polling at 8, which probably wouldn't hold up in an election. Still, this is all MOE movement since last Nanos in November was 36/31/26.



Wierd. I expected PC to win the next election, but this is looking terrible for them. I suppose than Hudak will never be Ontario Premier, then. Ontarians don't seem to like him.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #155 on: February 03, 2014, 01:54:42 pm »

I'll pay attention if the writs are dropped. We have next week's by-elections as another barometer, though I'm pessimistic as always. Rae, Harris and McGuinty all lost before winning, ditto Harper federally. All except McGuinty won their victories on the trail. My own advice for the Tories would be to talk nonstop economy/jobs and forcefully defend their white papers when challenged. By jobs I don't mean mindless populist nonsense like that "Million Jobs Bill."
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #156 on: February 03, 2014, 06:07:21 pm »

NPDQ is open for business. I'm not a fan of our fragmented party system to begin with, but curious to see how Ducasse makes out.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #157 on: February 03, 2014, 06:41:14 pm »

NPDQ is open for business. I'm not a fan of our fragmented party system to begin with, but curious to see how Ducasse makes out.

I can has polls?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #158 on: February 03, 2014, 06:50:41 pm »

I'm sure all 3 parties are taking internals to see how that works out. Also sure that the unions stick with the PQ. The party system hasn't been this fragmented since the Unionists faced a bunch of separatist then-microchallengers in the mid-'60s. Marois won't be a termite victim, but the PQ can't asphyxiate them either.
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« Reply #159 on: February 04, 2014, 07:55:59 am »

Finally a real Ontario poll, from Nanos: Liberals lead 36/28/27. The Tories are at their lowest point since they were last in government. Though Greens are polling at 8, which probably wouldn't hold up in an election. Still, this is all MOE movement since last Nanos in November was 36/31/26.



Wierd. I expected PC to win the next election, but this is looking terrible for them. I suppose than Hudak will never be Ontario Premier, then. Ontarians don't seem to like him.

A bit've an Iggy situation? A Premier who no one really likes that much except the diehards, an opposition leader who people hate even more and a pretty popular NDP leader
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« Reply #160 on: February 04, 2014, 08:03:44 am »

I knew Ducasse would lead it.

They're not running in this upcoming election are they?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #161 on: February 04, 2014, 02:04:46 pm »

Elections bill out. Brazeau and Harb have been charged with fraud and breach of trust. QP should be fun.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #162 on: February 05, 2014, 11:09:59 am »

Cotler is retiring next year as expected
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #163 on: February 05, 2014, 11:43:17 am »

Anthony Housefather will run and be the next Grit MP from Mont-Royal. Will miss Cotler, and had the privilege of meeting him a few years ago.
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Ernest
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« Reply #164 on: February 05, 2014, 01:08:02 pm »

Anthony Housefather will run and be the next Grit MP from Mont-Royal. Will miss Cotler, and had the privilege of meeting him a few years ago.

Housefather may be the next Grit to stand in the riding, but isn't it a bit premature to say he'll be the next MP?  That riding has election after election gone less and less Grit under Cotler.  He got 92% of the vote in 1999, 81% in 2000, 76% in 2004, 66% in 2006, 56% in 2008, and 41% in 2011.  That can't all be due to any personal unpopularity Cotler may have earned, or even the general decline in Liberal fortunes.  Not when the decline is of that magnitude and consistent from election to election.  Clearly Mont Royal has been trending Royal Blue.  Possibly not soon enough to keep Housefeather from being the next MP, but Housefeather will definitely have to be more than a mailbox.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #165 on: February 05, 2014, 01:17:20 pm »

He's one of the best they could've gotten. Certainly the best politician unless they wanted to go for a prominent person from outside politics, like Cotler and his 2 predecessors were. It certainly isn't Cotler himself. More the trends of Jews, Asians and Liberal fortunes generally. I doubt there will be a nomination contest, not that Housefather would need a fist on the scale like Freeland in Toronto Centre.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #166 on: February 05, 2014, 02:41:26 pm »

I can confirm than Irwin Cotler was very popular and respected by the local NDPers, too. His and his deep expertise on international law and human rights will be missed, as his well-known debating skills.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #167 on: February 05, 2014, 03:34:43 pm »

Poilievre will run in Rideau-Carleton, Baird in Nepean.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #168 on: February 05, 2014, 04:14:45 pm »

Quebec will raise the minimum wage from 10.15$ to 10.35$, on May 1st. Nothing really special, it happens on May 1st every year or other year.
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« Reply #169 on: February 05, 2014, 04:39:20 pm »

Quebec will raise the minimum wage from 10.15$ to 10.35$, on May 1st. Nothing really special, it happens on May 1st every year or other year.

Which is $9.14/hr to $9.32 is "real" dollars. Wink
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #170 on: February 05, 2014, 05:57:21 pm »

CN strike will be pre-emptively shut down. 58-hour filibuster?
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EarlAW
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« Reply #171 on: February 05, 2014, 08:40:13 pm »

Poilievre will run in Rideau-Carleton, Baird in Nepean.

Strange, considering Baird's current district doesn't change at all. Nepean will be much more safe for him, though. Who will run in Ottawa West-Nepean? I suppose the Liberals could pick it up.

In other news, the 2 former NDP MHAs in Newfoundland that became independents due to concerns with leader Loraine Michael are now Liberals Sad
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Smid
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« Reply #172 on: February 05, 2014, 08:45:20 pm »

In other news, the 2 former NDP MHAs in Newfoundland that became independents due to concerns with leader Loraine Michael are now Liberals Sad

I can't stand disloyal opportunists like these. If they'd stayed as independents, they may well have been turfed out by their constituents at the next election. As Liberals, especially given polling, they are more likely to hold their seats.

Completely unprincipled, disloyal opportunists.
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Frodo
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« Reply #173 on: February 05, 2014, 10:31:58 pm »

So just how screwed are the federal Conservatives under PM Stephen Harper?  Is their majority a lost cause in 2015?   
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #174 on: February 05, 2014, 10:42:10 pm »

So just how screwed are the federal Conservatives under PM Stephen Harper?  Is their majority a lost cause in 2015?   

Polls aside, we're doing fairly well for a government about to seek a fourth term. Sure the climate's not ideal but the economy's decent and psephology favours Harper. This will be his 5th campaign as party leader, first for the others. Anything could happen but I'd bet any money on Harper being PM 2 years from today.
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