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  Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins
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Author Topic: Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins  (Read 132571 times)
RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1500 on: June 08, 2015, 09:03:58 am »

NL-CRA: Grits 50, Tories 27, Dippers 22.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #1501 on: June 08, 2015, 05:24:02 pm »

Newfoundland election called for November 30: http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/newfoundland-labrador/provincial-election-set-for-nov-30-1.3104601
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Lincoln Republican
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« Reply #1502 on: June 09, 2015, 01:22:52 pm »

Question for Hatman, RogueBeaver, MaxQue, and any others who may wish to contribute.

Is it within the realm of possibility that Canada is headed toward a United Kingdom type political landscape, that is, with a conservative or center right party, the Conservative Party, and a socialist party, or moderate leftist party, the New Democratic Party, as the two dominant parties, with the Liberal Party basically going the way of the U.K. Liberal Party?

Do you see the above scenario happening any time soon, or at some time in the future?

Your comments please.

Thank you.     
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exnaderite
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« Reply #1503 on: June 09, 2015, 01:41:51 pm »

That's certainly a plausible outcome. Yesterday I met someone who ran for the Liberal nomination in this district and she went on about how the Liberal culture has barely changed from the days they were the "natural governing party". And if the 2008/2011 thrashings can't destroy the old guard and replace it with more nimble and versatile leaders, nothing will.

But, Canadian voters are more fickle than the US or UK counterparts. It's also plausible that the NDP storms in on the back of anti-Harper sentiment and the Conservatives are plunged into civil war after the worst result for the right since Confederation. Thanks to a steadily improving economy and a Conservative Party riven by infighting and seen as unelectable, the NDP wins again in 2019. By now, the old guard of the Liberal Party has now literally died off and Justin Trudeau is seen as an experienced, familiar face heading a nimble and versatile machine. By 2023, the NDP is seen as tired and beset with scandals. The Conservatives are still unelectable thanks to Harper's unpopularity. The Liberal Party presents itself as a true alternative, and wins decisively.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #1504 on: June 09, 2015, 03:30:02 pm »

Canadian politics is remarkably hard to predict, which is why I laughed at you for being so absolutely sure the Conservatives would win Tongue
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1505 on: June 09, 2015, 04:43:19 pm »

Question for Hatman, RogueBeaver, MaxQue, and any others who may wish to contribute.

Is it within the realm of possibility that Canada is headed toward a United Kingdom type political landscape, that is, with a conservative or center right party, the Conservative Party, and a socialist party, or moderate leftist party, the New Democratic Party, as the two dominant parties, with the Liberal Party basically going the way of the U.K. Liberal Party?

Do you see the above scenario happening any time soon, or at some time in the future?


It's conceivable and almost certainly would have happened had Justin Trudeau not ran for leader.

That said, anything is possible. At this point, any of the big three could win a majority.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1506 on: June 09, 2015, 04:52:33 pm »

The rest of the quarterly Atlantic polls are out

Nova Scotia
Lib: 50% (-8)
NDP: 27% (+9)
PC: 19% (-1)

New Brunswick
Lib: 38% (-16)
PC: 28% (+1)
NDP: 23% (+14)
Green: 11% (+1)

This is good news for the NS NDP as they are defending two narrow wins in by-elections soon. Also, holy crap look at that NB swing.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1507 on: June 09, 2015, 06:32:01 pm »
« Edited: June 09, 2015, 06:52:53 pm by RogueBeaver »

WTF Evan Solomon.

Update: Solomon has been fired.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #1508 on: June 09, 2015, 10:02:06 pm »

The rest of the quarterly Atlantic polls are out

Nova Scotia
Lib: 50% (-8)
NDP: 27% (+9)
PC: 19% (-1)

New Brunswick
Lib: 38% (-16)
PC: 28% (+1)
NDP: 23% (+14)
Green: 11% (+1)

This is good news for the NS NDP as they are defending two narrow wins in by-elections soon. Also, holy crap look at that NB swing.

Has that austerity budget come out yet in Nova Scotia?

As for NB, it seems the NDP only polls well there between elections. Good to see we haven't fallen behind the Greens, though. 
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BaconBacon96
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« Reply #1509 on: June 09, 2015, 11:48:42 pm »

What is with this Liberal collapse in the polls?
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andrew_c
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« Reply #1510 on: June 10, 2015, 04:49:33 am »

It appears that Justin Trudeau has worn out his welcome.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #1511 on: June 10, 2015, 08:30:20 am »

#Notleymania
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1512 on: June 10, 2015, 04:21:24 pm »

The rest of the quarterly Atlantic polls are out

Nova Scotia
Lib: 50% (-8)
NDP: 27% (+9)
PC: 19% (-1)

New Brunswick
Lib: 38% (-16)
PC: 28% (+1)
NDP: 23% (+14)
Green: 11% (+1)

This is good news for the NS NDP as they are defending two narrow wins in by-elections soon. Also, holy crap look at that NB swing.

Has that austerity budget come out yet in Nova Scotia?

Yes, they bungled it pretty badly. There was a blowup over cuts to film & television subsidies (as an aside, if there was ever a bloated welfare program that needed cutting, it was that Tongue). Actually, I'm kind of surprised that the Liberals are doing as well as they are. I would've guessed they'd be in the low 40's.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1513 on: June 10, 2015, 04:23:33 pm »

While I agree with JVF, that anything is possible in politics, I really doubt his popularity or lack thereof will matter much in 2023. How many non-hacks refuse to vote Liberal because Paul Martin?
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exnaderite
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« Reply #1514 on: June 10, 2015, 05:42:33 pm »

As long as the Liberals significantly improve on their 2011 results and there is no Conservative majority, Trudeau's job as leader is secure. If the Liberals are still in opposition, they can present thenselves as the principled and moderate opposition while the Conservatives are waging their civil war (a formal split of the Conservative Party won't happen, as everyone knows the right will be shut out of power for a generation).

By 2023, the NDP will probably have become tired. Trudeau himself will have significantly aged, and physically seems more mature. In any case, by then anyone refusing to vote Liberal due to their bad memories of Pierre will be in their 70s. This puts him in a great position to decisively win. And, unless the Conservatives win back their lost support this year, Harper's unpopularity will haunt them for many years to come. This final point is predictable. How do the Ontario Liberals hold power other than using the bad memories of Bob Rae and his successor?
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warandwar
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« Reply #1515 on: June 10, 2015, 06:53:48 pm »

As long as the Liberals significantly improve on their 2011 results and there is no Conservative majority, Trudeau's job as leader is secure. If the Liberals are still in opposition, they can present thenselves as the principled and moderate opposition while the Conservatives are waging their civil war (a formal split of the Conservative Party won't happen, as everyone knows the right will be shut out of power for a generation).

By 2023, the NDP will probably have become tired. Trudeau himself will have significantly aged, and physically seems more mature. In any case, by then anyone refusing to vote Liberal due to their bad memories of Pierre will be in their 70s. This puts him in a great position to decisively win. And, unless the Conservatives win back their lost support this year, Harper's unpopularity will haunt them for many years to come. This final point is predictable. How do the Ontario Liberals hold power other than using the bad memories of Bob Rae and his successor?

Yeah, but by 2023, a tsunami could have wiped Nova Scotia away and loons could have evolved laser beam-shooting eyes.
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Smid
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« Reply #1516 on: June 11, 2015, 01:51:22 am »
« Edited: June 12, 2015, 02:06:33 am by Smid »

Yeah, but by 2023, a tsunami could have wiped Nova Scotia away and loons could have evolved laser beam-shooting eyes.

A tsunami hitting Vancouver would likely have a greater political impact.
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« Reply #1517 on: June 11, 2015, 02:13:28 pm »

Surely the death knell for the Liberals comes if the Tories choose a socially liberal leader?
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exnaderite
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« Reply #1518 on: June 11, 2015, 04:27:08 pm »

Surely the death knell for the Liberals comes if the Tories choose a socially liberal leader?
Other than Brad Wall, I can't think of any (potential) Tory leader who isn't encumbered by their association with Harper. The Liberals (helped indirectly by the NDP) will gleefully point these connections out.

A real danger for the Liberals is if the NDP continues to Blairize under Mulcair and in government. The Liberals will be squeezed on the left and unable to catch Red Tories without alienating its centre-left wing.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1519 on: June 11, 2015, 04:33:09 pm »

Surely the death knell for the Liberals comes if the Tories choose a socially liberal leader?

Not by a long shot. The Liberals would have to come another very distant third before anyone even thinks about writing their obituary and even with the recent NDP surge that doesn't look especially likely.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1520 on: June 11, 2015, 07:44:08 pm »

WTF Chris Alexander.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #1521 on: June 12, 2015, 04:21:57 pm »

Does anyone think Duceppe's goals would be better served had he run for the PQ leadership?
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1522 on: June 12, 2015, 05:46:07 pm »

Does anyone think Duceppe's goals would be better served had he run for the PQ leadership?

Perhaps, but then he'd have been better served if he hadn't had two botched entries into provincial politics already.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #1523 on: June 12, 2015, 05:46:32 pm »

They didn't want Duceppe.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #1524 on: June 15, 2015, 04:56:24 pm »

Provincial By elections have been called in Cape Breton Centre, Dartmouth South & Sydney-Whitney Pier.  They should be all holds, although the Liberals could conceivably pick up either of the NDP seats.
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