Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins

[DC Al Fine]

Nova Scotia
Liberal: 60% (+2)
Progressive Conservative: 20% (+1)
NDP: 18% (-1)
Green: 1% (-2)

Still in the honeymoon period I guess.

[DC Al Fine]

Good riddance.

PC's elect new leader, win another election leader gets booted. Rinse, repeat.

[DC Al Fine]

So who's in line for the throne?

[DC Al Fine]

So who's in line for the throne?

As expected, speculation is already starting on who will run to replace her.  Stephen Mandel, Jim Dinning, Dave Hancock, Doug Horner, Jim Prentice, Gary Mar, and Thomas Lukaszuk have all had their names thrown around as potential contenders.  Supposedly Nenshi didn't give a firm 'no' when a reporter asked if he would run, but regardless, I doubt that a candidacy by him would go over really well.

Ah whoops.

[DC Al Fine]

His rationale when asked is that voters still have questions and want to know more about him. You don't usually see this much fluff outside of bedding stores. I liked Mulcair's line about waiting another 15 years.

Will it be a pop-up book?

[DC Al Fine]

The NS Liberals are eliminating interest on the provincial portion of student loans.

Not a fan of this plan, but it should be interesting to see how it plays out.

Prediction: It won't affect whether more kids pursue post-secondary education.

[DC Al Fine]

On a lighter note, who's everyone's favourite premier of your respective province? Mine's in my sig.

Pre-Confederation: Joseph Howe
Post-Confederation: Bob Stanfield

[DC Al Fine]

Hilarious: Dad's people mad at Wynne for distancing herself, she's pissed at them for leaving her this wreckage. Strangler/Dithers all over again, exact same spin too: we're a new gang going for a first term, not the same old folks with a few new faces going for a fourth. Not surprising given that Dithers' gang (Herle and Murphy among others) is so prominent at the OLP. As I've said before, if '11 is their '04, opposition parties gotta follow our '05-'06 strategy to finish them off.

Can we get some 06 style gaffes? I really want to hear someone talking about soldiers in our streets again.

[DC Al Fine]

My reaction is meh. On one hand no more Anders, on the other a Red replacing a Blue in Alberta. So hoping for a Blue challenge in '19.

Must I remember than Conservatives automatically reselected incumbents in the last elections (this time, it's only because of redistricting)?

Majority government. Incumbents are automatically reselected in a minority.

[DC Al Fine]

Good riddance to the worst specimen of human scum.

No, if he were human scum, we would've given him the Order of Canada.

[DC Al Fine]

Good riddance to the worst specimen of human scum.

No, if he were human scum, we would've given him the Order of Canada.

Now we just need to get rid of the Member for Vancouver East.

What's wrong with Libby Davies? I would've thought the most hated NDPer would be Pat Martin.

He's certainly my most hated NDPer

[DC Al Fine]

Good riddance to the worst specimen of human scum.

No, if he were human scum, we would've given him the Order of Canada.

Now we just need to get rid of the Member for Vancouver East.

What's wrong with Libby Davies? I would've thought the most hated NDPer would be Pat Martin.

I haven't had any personal interactions with her, but from what I've heard, she's very intolerant of conservatives generally - so her attitude more than anything. Plus, her stance on Israel makes her pretty much the left-wing version of Rob Anders.

I think it might depend on what your big issues. Socons hate Martin for his anti-Evangelical comments. Neocons hate Davies because of her Israel view etc.

[DC Al Fine]

Which Tory do Dippers and Grits dislike most besides Anders?

Vic Toews before he quit. Pollievre gets a fair amount of hate on my Facebook feed.

[DC Al Fine]

So what's up with that Angus Reid poll? Rogue poll or is there a shift afoot?

[DC Al Fine]

Trudeau's negatives have also skyrocketed, now at 45/44 approval. Elections aren't won with prayers and all that.

Liberal minority I imagine. Tory numbers will recover a bit by election time and the NDP has a high enough floor to prevent any majorities.

[DC Al Fine]

Trudeau's negatives have also skyrocketed, now at 45/44 approval. Elections aren't won with prayers and all that.

Liberal minority I imagine. Tory numbers will recover a bit by election time and the NDP has a high enough floor to prevent any majorities.

No, the NDP floor is much lower than you think. Maybe 15?

It would require a collapse in Quebec.

Yeah. Barring a wave or change in alignment I'd put the NDP floor around 20 or so.

[DC Al Fine]

The Nova Scotia Barrister's Society will not accredit Trinity Western's law school unless they drop their same sex marriage covenant... because tolerance.

Test Act here we come

[DC Al Fine]

Darryl Dexter in Nova Scotia had won by solid landslides in Cole Harbour prior to being tossed in 2013

Dexter got screwed by redistribution as well. A wealthy neighbourhood got tacked onto his working class seat. The seat is still lean NDP, but it isn't safe enough to protect from waves like his old one would have.

[DC Al Fine]

New AB poll: Wildrose 50, Progs 21.

Wow. And the Liberals are in fourth!

Nothing surprising, in the aftermath of Redford resignation. It will tighten later, through.

Indeed. I'm curious how much of a bump Prentice will give them.

[DC Al Fine]

So I was playing as the Tories in the 1993 PM4E scenario and managed to scrape together a Tory minority with 88 seats

[DC Al Fine]

New CROP poll

PLQ: 40% (-2)
CAQ: 23% (nc)
PQ: 22% (-3)
QS: 11% (+4)
ON: 1 (nc)
Other: 2 (+1)

NDP: 33 (+2)
Liberal: 32 (-1)
Bloc: 20 (+1)
Conservative: 12 (-1)
Green: 4 (-2)

As expected, QS is benefiting from the PQ's declined. I'm a bit surprised at PLQ as they don't appear to be having a honeymoon.

[DC Al Fine]

The slider thing at the top of the election atlas website has spots for 1979-2011, but only has maps for 1988-2011. Weird. Hopefully we get maps soon

[DC Al Fine]

The slider thing at the top of the election atlas website has spots for 1979-2011, but only has maps for 1988-2011. Weird. Hopefully we get maps soon

No, there's maps there now!

No, there isn't. It's the just the scale which is broken. 1988 is 1979, 1993 is between 1980 and 1984, etc...

I thought Reform was winning a lot of seats for the early 80's...

[DC Al Fine]

My fiance just asked me why the Greens were so popular in Quebec in 1979

[DC Al Fine]

Some of the BC ridings from 1979 seem both familiar and strange, like Cariboo-Chilcotin stretching all the way down to Howe Sound past Squamish.   My first thought was that it sort of made sense, since the Sea-to-Sky highway wasn't built until the 1960s, and there was only ferry and rail access to Squamish, but then I remembered that Cayoosh Pass, the route north of that region, wasn't motorable until the 1970s. The only other way not-by-rail in or out of that region is by some shifting logging roads may not have existed in those days.

I'm amazed how few ridings suburban Toronto had. Brampton isn't even worth an entire riding, only two for Mississauga and only one riding for the whole of Vaughan, Markham etc.