Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins

[RogueBeaver]

Somehow forgot to post this Tuesday: PQ's newest election scenario is an April 14 election with dissolution around March 12. Budget comes down early too in said scenario.

[RogueBeaver]

Grits will finally get around to some policy substance at their convention in 2 weeks.

[RogueBeaver]

Interesting Ipsos poll: voters like Trudeau's Senate stunt but see it as just that, a stunt. Topline is 33/29/27, Grits 38/28 among LV. Trudeau is PPM 42/34/24.

[RogueBeaver]

ONDP still playing small ball, and CPC planning to make mischief at the LPC convention.

[RogueBeaver]

I've been trying to keep posts down to a minimum here, but I'm certainly not ashamed of the bill.

[RogueBeaver]

Budget roundup.

[RogueBeaver]

My budget reaction is the same as last year: meh.

[RogueBeaver]

Poilievre said he'd look at excising that part, which was my objection to the bill.

[RogueBeaver]

Trudeau would keep corporate tax at its current 15%. Cue umpteen columns from a certain Postmedia man about how this proves JT's a fiscal conservative, or something.

[RogueBeaver]

I have to LOL @ Trudeau's new slogan about "real solutions to create growth for the middle class." More vacuous pap, as usual.

[RogueBeaver]

QC budget will be next week, and they're still leaving the door slightly open for a March dissolution. In which case it'd be a mini-budget.

[RogueBeaver]

Flaherty's publicly doubting income splitting. I don't believe Flaherty quits unless it actually happens, but he's been acting a bit strangely recently.

[RogueBeaver]

Trudeau: budgets balance themselves. In the same universe where Santa, the Easter Bunny and unicorns exist, undoubtedly.

[RogueBeaver]

Either that or he's to Mulcair's left on budgeting, and we know which one it is.

[RogueBeaver]

Check out Andre Marin's Twitter feed now. He's going completely apesh**t on Rob Silver - and Marin personally Tweets most of the time.

[RogueBeaver]

There will be a spring Quebec election, with a minimalist budget next Thursday. All that's left to decide is D-Day and E-Day. When that's known I'll put up the thread.

[RogueBeaver]

Horwath is ramping up pressure on the Grits, but still mum on an election. Grits don't feel they'll survive.

Oh FFS, socons will vote for Kenney at the appropriate time regardless of his marital status.

[RogueBeaver]

So Trudeau's big economic plan is a spending orgy in areas of provincial jurisdiction. Which is exactly what Paul Martin did.

Yeah, Poilievre's one of our MVPs.

[RogueBeaver]

Mexican visa restrictions will remain in place.

How Heenan Blaikie imploded.

[RogueBeaver]

Ontario poll from Ipsos: 34/31/31 among all voters, 37/33/27 among LV. 60/40 wrong track, 32/31/28 preferred premier. Being Ipsos, they also include regional numbers. Seat guesstimate, anyone?

[RogueBeaver]

NDP is 3rd (43L/29C/26N) in 416 and 905 (48C/28L/20N).

[RogueBeaver]

They don't specify if the regional # are under the regular or LV screen. Suspect the former. Either way, good news for both our parties. Question is whether Horwath pulls the trigger.

[RogueBeaver]

Transit tax, full Liberal term, possibility of triggering an election which results in a Tory win (even with an NDP OO) all factor in. I'll believe an election when I see someone roll that die.

[RogueBeaver]

Horwath just called Wynne's bluff.

Now this is downright hilarious: PLQ might bring back Charest if Marois gets a majority.

Speaking of which: Assnat will be dissolved March 11 for an April 14 election. Marois is now in majority territory per CROP: 40/34/16. Marois leads 30/22 on best premier.

[RogueBeaver]

Wynne says there will be transit taxes in the budget. Hudak: Ontarians want an election, and it's unfortunate that the premier sees Ontarians as revenue tools.