Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins
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  Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins
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Author Topic: Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins  (Read 159548 times)
MaxQue
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« Reply #650 on: June 06, 2014, 10:13:49 PM »

New Brunswick poll is out:

Liberal: 53% (+10)!
PC: 28% (-3)
NDP: 16% (-5)
Green 4% (-1)

NDP still probably win a couple seats in Saint John with no numbers, but they won't make a substantial breakthrough.

Hmm, more likely just the leader.

No, he announced he would run in his home city, in Fredericton West-Hanwell. It's a new riding, rurban, covering west Frederiction and rural areas, but I would guess a notional of 16% (NDP polled 16% in both former ridings (York and Fredericton-Silverwood).

I know that. I was saying that he will probably win his riding, but the NDP wont win anything else, even in Saint John.

I have huge doubts he will win in Frederiction. It's a quite weak area for NDP. I would think than if Cardy (the leader wins), they won Saint Jonh Harbour and at least another Saint John riding. Personally, I think they'll win nothing.

I don't know. He nearly won the Rothesay by-election, which is the richest riding in the province. I do think he picked the wrong Fredericton riding though. According to this: http://blunt-objects.blogspot.ca/2014/05/new-brunswick-provincial-redistribution.html he should be running in Fredericton South, not Fredericton West-Hanwell.

The south side of Fredericton is quite left leaning, the NDP won the area in the federal election.

Didn't think than Fredericton was so good for NDP. South was the 3rd most strong NDP in the province (I would even say 2nd, since Tracadie-Sheila was the leader seat). Through, I must say than, surprisingly, Fredericton West-Hanwell is quite good for NDP. I understand the symbolism, through. It includes part of the capital, suburbs, rural areas and a Native reservation.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #651 on: June 07, 2014, 07:26:42 AM »

Yeah, the NDP's chance to become the Acadian Party was last election. Their numbers in Tracadie-Sheila will disappear, unless Yvon Godin makes the jump to provincial politics.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #652 on: June 07, 2014, 08:16:26 AM »

New Brunswick poll is out:

Liberal: 53% (+10)!
PC: 28% (-3)
NDP: 16% (-5)
Green 4% (-1)

NDP still probably win a couple seats in Saint John with no numbers, but they won't make a substantial breakthrough.

Hmm, more likely just the leader.

No, he announced he would run in his home city, in Fredericton West-Hanwell. It's a new riding, rurban, covering west Frederiction and rural areas, but I would guess a notional of 16% (NDP polled 16% in both former ridings (York and Fredericton-Silverwood).

I know that. I was saying that he will probably win his riding, but the NDP wont win anything else, even in Saint John.

I have huge doubts he will win in Frederiction. It's a quite weak area for NDP. I would think than if Cardy (the leader wins), they won Saint Jonh Harbour and at least another Saint John riding. Personally, I think they'll win nothing.

I don't know. He nearly won the Rothesay by-election, which is the richest riding in the province.

Rothesay was an exceptional circumstance. In the span of a week, the Tories recreated a patronage job they had cut (and attacked the Liberals for keeping in the 2010 campaign), appointed a sitting MLA to said patronage job and called a by-election. Needless to say, people were pissed.

The NDP still have a good shot at winning 1-2 ridings in Saint John, but Rothesay is not indicative of any trend.
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EarlAW
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« Reply #653 on: June 07, 2014, 09:40:49 AM »

Not saying Rothesay will be close, just saying Cardy is likely to have personal popularity that could help him win his riding.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #654 on: June 13, 2014, 10:24:25 AM »
« Edited: June 13, 2014, 10:27:17 AM by Senator DC »

Question: How do people from Toronto/Vancouver afford their houses?

I always figured they could swing it because and there's more money there. But now, I'm looking at the median family incomes by city and TO/Van are lower than places like Halifax, Windsor and Saint John. What gives?
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Citizen Hats
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« Reply #655 on: June 13, 2014, 03:25:07 PM »

lower than windsor and st john? What? http://www.statcan.gc.ca/tables-tableaux/sum-som/l01/cst01/famil107a-eng.htm
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #656 on: June 14, 2014, 10:19:10 AM »

ROFLMAO: Mario Beaulieu has been elected BQ leader.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #657 on: June 14, 2014, 11:59:45 AM »


Oh yeah, forgot that was going on Tongue

Looks like BQ 2015 will be like Socreds 1980. Bellavance wasn't great but at least he'd have some presence in the house. Too bad, I was hoping for a 3-4 way fight in QC next year.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #658 on: June 14, 2014, 03:16:41 PM »

Well, it confirms than much of my family will vote NDP next time. They insist than Bloc shouldn't be about independence, but about Quebec interests and I suspect they aren't alone. Thank you Bloquistes.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #659 on: June 14, 2014, 03:29:30 PM »

Question: How do people from Toronto/Vancouver afford their houses?

I always figured they could swing it because and there's more money there. But now, I'm looking at the median family incomes by city and TO/Van are lower than places like Halifax, Windsor and Saint John. What gives?

Higher rental rates?

I know I for one have given up any ideas of buying a home in the near future - and my personal income is higher than the median income for Ottawa.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #660 on: June 14, 2014, 05:13:25 PM »

Question: How do people from Toronto/Vancouver afford their houses?

I always figured they could swing it because and there's more money there. But now, I'm looking at the median family incomes by city and TO/Van are lower than places like Halifax, Windsor and Saint John. What gives?

Higher rental rates?

I know I for one have given up any ideas of buying a home in the near future - and my personal income is higher than the median income for Ottawa.

Perhaps. Canadian home prices are bizarre, albeit not so bad here.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #661 on: June 14, 2014, 05:16:17 PM »
« Edited: June 14, 2014, 05:30:18 PM by Senator DC »

NS Tory MLA Chuck Porter has quit/been ejected from caucus depending on who you believe.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #662 on: June 14, 2014, 05:26:55 PM »

^ My favourite expulsions were definitely the PQ psychodrama 3 years ago.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #663 on: June 15, 2014, 09:26:09 AM »

Beaulieu's leadership going even better than expected. He characterized the past 20 years as "waiting and defeatism", naturally Duceppe was furious. One riding association president quit already.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #664 on: June 15, 2014, 10:35:54 AM »

Can this guy even win the Bloc 1 MP?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #665 on: June 15, 2014, 10:41:21 AM »

Beaulieu's leadership going even better than expected. He characterized the past 20 years as "waiting and defeatism", naturally Duceppe was furious. One riding association president quit already.

The FLQ reference terrifies me.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #666 on: June 15, 2014, 11:21:22 AM »

Same. The lunatics are now running the asylum. Imagine him on the stage with Mulcair and Trudeau next year...
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #667 on: June 15, 2014, 11:35:23 AM »


I can see a lone Bloc MP winning off their personal vote, but yes I think this represents the end of the BQ as a serious party.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #668 on: June 15, 2014, 11:56:57 AM »

Same. The lunatics are now running the asylum. Imagine him on the stage with Mulcair and Trudeau next year...

Would the BQ even be invited to the debates next year?
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MaxQue
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« Reply #669 on: June 15, 2014, 12:13:28 PM »

Same. The lunatics are now running the asylum. Imagine him on the stage with Mulcair and Trudeau next year...

Would the BQ even be invited to the debates next year?

The rule always was than your are invoted if you got an MP when the election was called. It would mean Harper, Mulcair, Trudeau, Beaulieu and May.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #670 on: June 15, 2014, 12:16:46 PM »

Same. The lunatics are now running the asylum. Imagine him on the stage with Mulcair and Trudeau next year...

Would the BQ even be invited to the debates next year?

Yes. Reform was allowed in the '93 debates with only 1 MP (who won a by-election a couple years before). The Greens were invited in 2011 despite having no MP's at the time.
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Hash
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« Reply #671 on: June 15, 2014, 12:17:46 PM »

Hopefully there are major fireworks in the next debate between the Bloc's nutcase and the others (esp. Harper)!
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #672 on: June 15, 2014, 12:21:13 PM »

Hopefully there are major fireworks in the next debate between the Bloc's nutcase and the others (esp. Harper)!

Personally I think Mulcair would be the best candidate for fireworks with the Bloc since he's as prickly as Harper and is competing with Beaulieu for the same voters.
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Citizen Hats
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« Reply #673 on: June 15, 2014, 04:45:12 PM »

Same. The lunatics are now running the asylum. Imagine him on the stage with Mulcair and Trudeau next year...

Would the BQ even be invited to the debates next year?

Yes. Reform was allowed in the '93 debates with only 1 MP (who won a by-election a couple years before). The Greens were invited in 2011 despite having no MP's at the time.

The Greens weren't there in 2011, though they were there in 2008 when they had Liberal turncout Blair Wilson. Presumably they'll be invited back this time
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #674 on: June 15, 2014, 04:48:50 PM »

Same. The lunatics are now running the asylum. Imagine him on the stage with Mulcair and Trudeau next year...

Would the BQ even be invited to the debates next year?

Yes. Reform was allowed in the '93 debates with only 1 MP (who won a by-election a couple years before). The Greens were invited in 2011 despite having no MP's at the time.

The Greens weren't there in 2011, though they were there in 2008 when they had Liberal turncout Blair Wilson. Presumably they'll be invited back this time

Just discovered that you have a riding called "West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country". Sounds like somewhere from a fairytale.
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