Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins

[RogueBeaver]

Sort've a side point, but is there any hope of the NDP at least holding onto opposition next year?

Certainly. I have yet to see any Liberal ROQ strategy, for one...

[Hatman 🍁]

Looks like a miracle would be required at this point. The Liberal brand is clearly popular once again. Even though there's little connection between the federal Liberals, the fact that by the time of the next election, all but the three Prairie provinces will have Liberal governments (assuming NB and NL flip).

[RogueBeaver]

On that subject... 308's May average has a seat tie despite a nominal 5% Grit PV lead.

Nanos is out: 57L/50C/47N on PPI, 33/28/14 on PPM.

Ivison reports that the Grit abortion policy is about shutting down Western pro-life entryism.

MacKay steps in it on female judges. Hardly his first gender gaffe either.

[RogueBeaver]

Leger out: 34/34/17/12 but 39/25/22/12 among Francophones. Provincially 40/27/20/9, 32/29/24 among Francophones.

[You kip if you want to...]

Leger out: 34/34/17/12 but 39/25/22/12 among Francophones. Provincially 40/27/20/9, 32/29/24 among Francophones.

Lol PQ

[DC Al Fine]

Leger out: 34/34/17/12 but 39/25/22/12 among Francophones. Provincially 40/27/20/9, 32/29/24 among Francophones.

So if the separatist threat is no more, is there any chance Anglos will stop voting PLQ more than blacks vote Democrat?

[Hatman 🍁]

Perhaps if the NDPQ runs.

[You kip if you want to...]

Did Anglos flock to the ADQ after 2007? No

[DC Al Fine]

Did Anglos flock to the ADQ after 2007? No

Sort of. Anglo seats went 70-15 instead of 85-5

[DC Al Fine]

Leger out: 34/34/17/12 but 39/25/22/12 among Francophones. Provincially 40/27/20/9, 32/29/24 among Francophones.

Playing around with my proportional swing model, the Bloc still have a fighting chance in Plamondon & Bellavance's seats (down 0.5% & 1.4% to the NDP)

EDIT: Also the Grit's ROQ still sucks. My model has the Libs head in only 5 ROQ seats. Hull, Louis-Hebert, one in the Townships, and two in the Gaspe.

[RogueBeaver]

The Anglo PLQ alignment originates in the '30s. Mixture of small-l liberal/federalist ideology and TEH SCARY NATS. Even in 1948 urban Anglos kept the PLQ alive.

Liberal Senator Andree Champagne is retiring. Hopefully Harper fills the Senate vacancies ASAP.

[Poirot]

Andrée Champagne is a Conservative Senator even though she was appointed by Paul Martin. She was a Progressive-Conservative MP during the Mulroney years.

[RogueBeaver]

308 crunches Leger: 51/23/4. BQ shutout.

[RogueBeaver]

CTV's Bob Fife rates the Cabinet in his annual "Making the Grade" series. 5-day series that started yesterday. Also interesting cause 3/4 guys on this list are current or future leadership hopefuls.

Kenney: A+
Aglukkaq: F
MacKay: C-
Moore: B+
Poilievre: B

[RogueBeaver]

U de M's Pierre Martin: BQ at best keeps a seat or 2, more likely gets wiped out. Keep our fingers crossed.

[Hatman 🍁]

CTV's Bob Fife rates the Cabinet in his annual "Making the Grade" series. 5-day series that started yesterday. Also interesting cause 3/4 guys on this list are current or future leadership hopefuls.

Kenney: A+
Aglukkaq: F
MacKay: C-
Moore: B+
Poilievre: B

Poilievre should be an F as well.

[RogueBeaver]

Low-wage TFW program may be phased out in 2016.

[RogueBeaver]

F-35 decision will be delayed.

[DC Al Fine]

Low-wage TFW program may be phased out in 2016.

Good riddance. Every argument I heard for TFW's was also a good argument to increase wages

[Hatman 🍁]

It's a tricky topic, because I wonder how much of the opposition to the TFW program is latent racism? Surely foreigners deserve jobs too. Wish they weren't low wage or temporary though.

[Citizen Hats]

It's a tricky topic, because I wonder how much of the opposition to the TFW program is latent racism? Surely foreigners deserve jobs too. Wish they weren't low wage or temporary though.

Precisely.  I've never understood why we should try to write out much of the world from the benefits of growth, but that doesn't mean we should allow businesses to import workers without rights

[Hatman 🍁]

A sitting Tory MLA in New Brunswick will be running for the NDP in the provincial election in September. Exciting! Not sure if he is switching his allegiance in the Assembly, but it would bring the NDP seat total there up to 1

[RogueBeaver]

NB & NL will be the dullest campaigns in a while.

[Citizen Hats]

A sitting Tory MLA in New Brunswick will be running for the NDP in the provincial election in September. Exciting! Not sure if he is switching his allegiance in the Assembly, but it would bring the NDP seat total there up to 1

Presumably no, unless the NDP have suddenly decided to make an exception in their floor crossing rules

[Hatman 🍁]

A sitting Tory MLA in New Brunswick will be running for the NDP in the provincial election in September. Exciting! Not sure if he is switching his allegiance in the Assembly, but it would bring the NDP seat total there up to 1

Presumably no, unless the NDP have suddenly decided to make an exception in their floor crossing rules

That may be just a federal policy, but good point. Perhaps we will be an independent. The NB legislature still has him being PC, but the PCs have already removed him from their website.