Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins

[RogueBeaver]

Angus-Reid out: 31C/30L/27N. MOE changes from last month below the topline.

Advance poll turnout almost the same as 2011 in TrinSpa.

[Citizen Hats]

Alberta projection roughly from the Leger Poll (don't have proper cross tabs yet)

[Njall]

Alberta projection roughly from the Leger Poll (don't have proper cross tabs yet)

Overall, I could certainly see a map very similar to this one emerging from an election with these numbers.  However, I do have comments about a handful of these ridings:

1. Calgary-Elbow: This is Alison Reford's seat, and is undoubtably coloured blue here due to her strong performance in 2012 (she got 58%, which was roughly double the percentage received by the 2nd place (Wildrose) candidate, and was the strongest showing by a PC in Calgary in 2012).  However, given all that has gone on in the past few months, there is no doubt that she would lose this time around if she decided to run again for some reason.  If she decides to retire, the chances of another PC candidate holding the riding depends largely on the PC's ability to hold Liberal voters.  The Liberals consistently received at least 30% in Calgary-Elbow between in every election from 1989 to 2008, including a 2007 by-election that they won.  If they were to gain back their old voters, the Liberals could conceivably win this riding.  If the PCs keep the voters that they brought over last time (unlikely), they'll keep it.  Otherwise, a vote split between the PCs and ALP could allow the WRP to pick up this seat

2. Calgary-McCall: Currently held by Liberal MLA Darshan Kang, this is a lower-income, immigrant-heavy riding, and results have even greater dependence than usual on parties' GOTV efforts.  Last election, Kang's 6.4% margin over the WRP candidate represented a mere 671 votes.  The Liberals never won here until Kang's 2008 victory, and although they seem to have a fairly solid base of about 25-30% of voters here, their current strength seems to be partially based on having him as the MLA.  Since he's running federally in Calgary Skyview in 2015, it is likely that he will step down before the next election.  I'm not saying that the Liberals will lose without him, but given the closeness of ALP, WRP, and PC results last time, and the nature of the riding, this seat can't be counted on by the ALP to stay red.

3.  Other Calgary ridings with PC incumbents: especially since this new poll actually shows a tightening race, I find it doubtful that all 18(-ish, dependent on future events) PC MLAs would lose their seats.  Some MLAs such as Ken Hughes (Calgary-West) and Manmeet Bhullar (Calgary-Greenway) seem to be well-respected, and had fairly good margins of victory in 2012.  I certainly wouldn't count some of them out quite yet.  Additionally, if my absolutely-not-conclusively-proven belief that Chinese-Canadians are a fairly PC-friendly voting bloc, this factor could help PC incumbents in Northwest Calgary to hold on to their seats.

4. Calgary-Currie and Calgary-Varsity: These ridings are coloured red due to their higher-than-average ALP vote shares in 2012.  In both cases, these ridings had ALP incumbents who retired in 2012, and both of these ridings elected PC candidates in the election.  Now, depending on the ALP candidates in these ridings, they certainly could present pickup opportunities.  After all, both of these ridngs do contain fairly progressive (for Calgary, in any case) neighborhoods.  Other factors could come into play though, especially in Calgary-Varsity, where incumbent MLA Donna Kennedy-Glans is currently an Independent, and it is unknown whether she will run for re-election and/or rejoin the PC caucus before the next election.  

5. St. Albert: I find it very hard to believe that this riding would go Wildrose.  It is another one of those ridings that I consider to be fairly progressive, for Alberta, and it has a history of electing progressive MLAs (it voted NDP in 1989, and Liberal in 1993 and 2004).  Like Calgary-Elbow, this riding has had a solid Liberal base in its recent history, and it would appear that the 2012 election saw the majority of past Liberal voters voting PC.  However, even if ALL of those voters went back, the PCs would still be neck-and-neck with the WRP here, and I believe that the PCs would ultimately pull off a victory.

6. Edmonton-Manning: the NDP did perform well here in 2012.  Considering that the NDP vote in Edmonton is MUCH lower in the suburbs compared to the more central parts of the city, the NDP vote share here strikes me as a little odd.  Now, I don't know the particular reason why they did so well here last time, and I don't have any evidence for why they woudn't continue to improve.  It's just a gut feeling of mine to be skeptical of possible NDP gains in the Edmonton suburbs.

7. Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo: This riding is likely coloured green due to the WRP's heightened performance here in 2012 (they had an incumbent MLA; a floor-crosser).  Additionally, both of the Fort McMurray ridings seem to vote quite uniformly.  While this could mean that FM-Conklin would go WRP, the more likely occurance given the PC strength in Northern Rural Alberta would be a PC victory in both ridings.

8. Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock: I only mention this riding because the WRP candidate in 2012 was fairly high profile, which could skew the results here.  Additionally, the local PC association has an extremely large warchest (approximately $175,000).  While money spent is by no means a guarantee of victory, their monetary reserve here will certainly come in handy.  

9. Red Deer North: This riding did have a high result for the ALP compared to a lot of other ridings (they got 17%), but the Liberals don't have a history of winning here.  I could be wrong, but this seat would likely be a PC-WRP tossup.

10. Lethbridge East: unlike RD North, this riding was Liberal turf from 1993 to 2011, when incumbent MLA Bridget Pastoor crossed the floor to the PCs.  In 2012, she appeared to take a very large amount of her former voters with her to the PCs.  If this was due to her personal popularity, then she should be able to hold the riding for the PCs.  Otherwise, I could legitimately see this goin back to the ALP.

11. Banff-Cochrane: While this is likely the most progressive rural riding in Alberta, the Liberals have never come close to winning this, even in the Liberal surge of 1993.  The PCs will even be lucky to hold onto this riding, although it is possible if they manage to hold and build on their numbers from 2012, specifically in Banff and Canmore.

EDIT: It will be interesting to see what effect, if any, crosstabs will have on this projection.

[DC Al Fine]

Not proper cross tabs, but still:



You still voting Tory next time Njall?

[Hatman 🍁]

Love seeing all that orange in Edmonton, but remember that Brendan is just using a uniform proportional swing model with no riding adjustments (and why would he so far from the next election?)

Interestingly, these numbers give the WRP a one seat majority. Now, that's exciting.

[Njall]

You still voting Tory next time Njall?

I certainly will, although the biggest reason for my doing so is my desire to see my own MLA (Linda Johnson) re-elected.  She's a very hardworking MLA, and she's quite visible within the constituency.

[Hatman 🍁]

Do you consider yourself an "orange Tory"?

[RogueBeaver]

Joe Preston is retiring next year.

[Njall]

Do you consider yourself an "orange Tory"?

To an extent, yes (presuming that I'm correctly inferring the meaning of "orange Tory").  I'm a proud and active member of the PC party here in Alberta, but I have absolutely no support for the federal Conservative Party (with the exception of certain individuals, such as Ted Menzies, whom I view positively).  Broadly speaking, I would define myself as having centre-left economic views and centre(-right) social/cultural views.  I want the government to be fiscally responsible, but I would rather the government temporarily run deficits/pick up moderate levels of debt instead of cutting program and infrastructure spending when times are bad.  Admittedly, if the NDP was a viable player in Calgary, I would have a harder time picking between the two parties.  But aside from certain policy items such as the flat tax (I prefer progressive tax systems) and alternative energy (while I believe in the importance of the oils ands, I also believe that we should be focusing more on alternative sources, especially solar), I feel quite at home in the current incarnation of the PC party.

[Citizen Hats]

care to elaborate on your social conservatism?

[Hatman 🍁]

Do you consider yourself an "orange Tory"?

To an extent, yes (presuming that I'm correctly inferring the meaning of "orange Tory").  I'm a proud and active member of the PC party here in Alberta, but I have absolutely no support for the federal Conservative Party (with the exception of certain individuals, such as Ted Menzies, whom I view positively).  Broadly speaking, I would define myself as having centre-left economic views and centre(-right) social/cultural views.  I want the government to be fiscally responsible, but I would rather the government temporarily run deficits/pick up moderate levels of debt instead of cutting program and infrastructure spending when times are bad.  Admittedly, if the NDP was a viable player in Calgary, I would have a harder time picking between the two parties.  But aside from certain policy items such as the flat tax (I prefer progressive tax systems) and alternative energy (while I believe in the importance of the oils ands, I also believe that we should be focusing more on alternative sources, especially solar), I feel quite at home in the current incarnation of the PC party.

Your PC scores in your profile show that you're left socially as well. Unless your views have changed?

[RogueBeaver]

Happy Canada Day everyone!

[Njall]

Do you consider yourself an "orange Tory"?

To an extent, yes (presuming that I'm correctly inferring the meaning of "orange Tory").  I'm a proud and active member of the PC party here in Alberta, but I have absolutely no support for the federal Conservative Party (with the exception of certain individuals, such as Ted Menzies, whom I view positively).  Broadly speaking, I would define myself as having centre-left economic views and centre(-right) social/cultural views.  I want the government to be fiscally responsible, but I would rather the government temporarily run deficits/pick up moderate levels of debt instead of cutting program and infrastructure spending when times are bad.  Admittedly, if the NDP was a viable player in Calgary, I would have a harder time picking between the two parties.  But aside from certain policy items such as the flat tax (I prefer progressive tax systems) and alternative energy (while I believe in the importance of the oils ands, I also believe that we should be focusing more on alternative sources, especially solar), I feel quite at home in the current incarnation of the PC party.

Your PC scores in your profile show that you're left socially as well. Unless your views have changed?

Those scores are from back when I first registered for the forum.  At that time, I wasn't nearly as involved in local and provincial politics as I am now, and I had a tendency to take strong policy positions without much regard for the positive and negative consequences of having those beliefs enacted.  Anyways, I ran the test again, and my econ. score is apparently unchanged at -5.68, but my social score is now supposedly -0.17.

care to elaborate on your social conservatism?

A more accurate description of my social views would be that I am a social moderate (in the Canadian context; if I was living in the US I would certainly be a social liberal), tilting conservative on a few issues, and with a moderately conservative attitude about change.  I am certainly very far from the textbook definition of a socon.  For instance, I am completely supportive of same-sex marriage and homosexual rights.  That said, I don't always hold positions that are that straightforward.

Regarding the abortion debate, I would consider myself to be pro-choice.  Safe, legal access to abortions is a much preferable status quo to having multitudes of illegal abortions.  However, abortion without a concrete reason (such as a medical concern) becomes much less palatable to me after the first trimester.  I would also like to see contraceptive use promoted as much as possible, so that the need for abortions to be performed in the first place can be reduced.

Overall, I have a fairly anti-drug attitude.  I don't count myself as supportive of marijuana legalization, and would be completely against it if it wasn't for the paradox of marijuana being illegal while alcohol and tobacco (generally considered to be more damaging) are legal.  At this point in time, I would support marijuana decriminalization and refocusing efforts to target marijuana dealers rather than users, but I can't say that I support outright legalization.  With other drugs, I would be uncomfortable even with decriminalization. 

I wouldn't consider myself to be very religious, but I do still believe in strong morals.  And while I don't personally participate, I do appreciate the (oftentimes, not always) valuable role that religious institutions play in our society.

On the topic of institutions, I am also a staunch monarchist, and I believe in a strong, well-funded military (again, in the Canadian context; the Americans do certainly need to cut their defense budget).  I would also be open to making all Canadian youths spend a certain period of time (say, a year) in the military, with a civil service alternative for those who are completely opposed to military service.  I find that many people of my generation have a shocking lack of respect for authority figures.

That's the best I can do at explaining it, for now.  I tend to focus more on economic issues, and my opinions about those issues tend to be stronger and more well-defined as a result.

Happy Canada Day everyone!

And the same to you!

[Hatman 🍁]

socially liberal except on drugs? Sounds like NDP policy

It's certainly strange to see someone become more socially conservative over time. It's usually the other way around.

Happy Canada Day everyone!

And a happy Dominion Day to you

[Barnes]

A very happy Canada Day to all our friends to the north!

[DC Al Fine]

It's certainly strange to see someone become more socially conservative over time. It's usually the other way around.

You've been hanging out on Atlas too much

[Hatman 🍁]

It's certainly strange to see someone become more socially conservative over time. It's usually the other way around.

You've been hanging out on Atlas too much

Apparently njall hasn't

[MaxQue]

Sylvain Gaudreault, PQ MNA for Jonquière and former Transportation and Municipal Affairs minister had been gravely injuried after a fall while biking.

Same thing happened to Péladeau 2 months ago. PQ MNAs should stay far away from cycles.

[Hatman 🍁]

Perhaps one can blame Quebec drivers. They're the one's I fear the most when I'm biking around town (Mostly because they're less familiar with the roads to be fair)

[MaxQue]

Perhaps one can blame Quebec drivers. They're the one's I fear the most when I'm biking around town (Mostly because they're less familiar with the roads to be fair)

Both crashes aren't involving cars (but bad concrete/public works).

And yes, Quebec drivers are horrible and have no respect for pedestrians/bikes. It's much better elsewhere in North America.

[Hatman 🍁]

Perhaps one can blame Quebec drivers. They're the one's I fear the most when I'm biking around town (Mostly because they're less familiar with the roads to be fair)

Both crashes aren't involving cars (but bad concrete/public works).

So, just trading one stereotype for another.

[Citizen Hats]

Perhaps one can blame Quebec drivers. They're the one's I fear the most when I'm biking around town (Mostly because they're less familiar with the roads to be fair)

Both crashes aren't involving cars (but bad concrete/public works).

So, just trading one stereotype for another.

I find all you easterners to have abhorant habits towards cyclists on the roads

[Hatman 🍁]

Perhaps one can blame Quebec drivers. They're the one's I fear the most when I'm biking around town (Mostly because they're less familiar with the roads to be fair)

Both crashes aren't involving cars (but bad concrete/public works).

So, just trading one stereotype for another.

I find all you easterners to have abhorant habits towards cyclists on the roads

Don't look at me, I'm the victim in this scenario. 

[RogueBeaver]

Multiple reports that Jean Garon has died. RIP.

[Poirot]

Marie-Claude Morin, NDP MP Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot, will not run in 2015.

http://www.lapresse.ca/la-voix-de-lest/actualites/201407/01/01-4780313-pas-de-nouveau-mandat-pour-marie-claude-morin.php