Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins

[RogueBeaver]

Why? He wouldn't win but we'd at least have a decent candidate. Only realistic targets are regaining 2011 losses, which I'm not terribly optimistic about ATM.

[Hatman 🍁]

Mount Royal is one of two Tory targets in Montreal (the other is Pierrefonds-Dollard). With Trudeau as leader, it might be impossible for the Tories to win the riding, but I feel it is trending Conservative, as the Jewish vote coalesces to them.

[DC Al Fine]

Why? He wouldn't win but we'd at least have a decent candidate. Only realistic targets are regaining 2011 losses, which I'm not terribly optimistic about ATM.

Oh, I remember reading something about the Equality Party blowing up or some such. Thought he might've been tainted by that.

Mount Royal is one of two Tory targets in Montreal (the other is Pierrefonds-Dollard). With Trudeau as leader, it might be impossible for the Tories to win the riding, but I feel it is trending Conservative, as the Jewish vote coalesces to them.

I could see it going Tory the next time they win government.

[RogueBeaver]

That was 20 years ago. He wants to run for us, not the PLQ.  As for Mount Royal, IMO winning would require a good Tory year and a superior candidate, targeting both Jews and Asians. In 2011 the latter were key to Cotler's victory, he lost the Jewish vote.

[MaxQue]

Why? He wouldn't win but we'd at least have a decent candidate. Only realistic targets are regaining 2011 losses, which I'm not terribly optimistic about ATM.

I think it would hurt Tories in Quebec. French media will probably use that to gang up on them.

[RogueBeaver]

See my previous post. I'm sure there will be a media gang-up... but on the usual policy stuff, not  things an Anglo candidate in an Anglo riding did over 20 years ago in a different arena.

[Angel of Death]

Can anyone explain to me why Harper and Baird are such Israel-firsters? Did they grow up on a kibbutz or something?

[RogueBeaver]

Eve Adams profile.

Daniel Blaikie will seek the NDP nomination in Elmwood-Transcona.

Couple of weeks old, but here's a great French profile of the Royal 22nd at its 100th.

[Njall]

Daniel Blaikie will seek the NDP nomination in Elmwood-Transcona.

He already won it.

[RogueBeaver]

Adams' rival also quit the ONB race.

CETA text finalized.

[RogueBeaver]

Redford finally quits the Leg.

[You kip if you want to...]

Redford finally quits the Leg.

Could the Wildrose make a breakthrough here?

[RogueBeaver]

The rampant speculation is that she was keeping it warm for Prentice. I'd expect Prentice to win if he ran, but given that the Tories are plumbing the polling gutter right now they shouldn't take that for granted.

[Njall]

The rampant speculation is that she was keeping it warm for Prentice. I'd expect Prentice to win if he ran, but given that the Tories are plumbing the polling gutter right now they shouldn't take that for granted.

Actually, the last poll only had them down by 5 amongst all voters (31% WRP to 26% PC; about a quarter of the sample was undecided).  Note that I say "only down by 5" because they had been losing by margins of 25% or more in previous polls.  Don't get me wrong, the PCs certainly aren't in the best position, but if that poll is to be believed, then the WRP is also down from the last election, and there is a significant bloc of the voting population that Prentice could snag back to the PC fold if he performs well. 

If Prentice does end up running in Calgary-Elbow, I imagine that he'll do quite well, or at the very least, pull off a victory.  This riding wasn't very friendly to the WRP in 2012; I believe that their candidate ended up getting less than 30%, compared to Redford's 58%.  As it is located quite close to the centre of the city, many of its neighborhoods have a younger, more progressive population than the city as a whole.  Their local politics reflect this quite well, as Nenshi over-performed his city-wide average in almost all (if not all) of the city voting districts that are provincially located in Calgary-Elbow, and both of the Wards that represent parts of Calgary-Elbow are represented by two of the more progressive city councillors.  On the provincial level, a Liberal was elected here (albeit with moderately different riding boundaries) during a 2007 by-election after Klein stepped down, and the Liberals used to have a fairly substantial base here.  Of course, these voters might not think of Prentice as their ideal candidate, but they would certainly prefer him to a Wildrose member.

Prentice would also be helped here by "wealthy, inner-city" vote.  By that, I am referring to neightborhoods such as Upper Mount Royal, Rideau Park, Roxboro, and Elbow Park, all of which are older, inner-city neighborhoods characterized by large, expensive houses and some of the highest average household incomes in the city.  The PCs historically do well with this demographic, and in fact, some of Redford's best neighborhood-by-neighborhood results were in these places. 

Finally, while I know that money isn't everything in politics, it does certainly help, and the Calgary-Elbow PC Association is financially more than ready to run a strong campaign; at the end of last year they had more than $200,000 in the bank.  But anyways, long story short: Prentice's victory here wouldn't be guaranteed, but he would have a strong chance.  The biggest thing that could trip him up in my opinion would be vote-splitting; if enough voter here were to vote Liberal again instead of staying with the PCs, then the WRP could snatch victory.


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On another topic: Independent MLA Donna Kennedy-Glans (Calgary-Varsity) will request permission to re-join the PC caucus.  She left caucus in March during the first round of these expense scandals, and although she didn't specifically name Redford as the reason, it's believed that Redford was at least one of the reasons for her leaving.

[RogueBeaver]

Trudeau's "memoir" is coming out in October.

Hsu is retiring next year to spend more time with his family. He plans on returning to politics at some point.

[RogueBeaver]

NL Grits lead unchanged, 48/34/17. Even Grenier thinks his seat estimate is conservative: 26L/17C/5N.

[RogueBeaver]

Long Mulcair Vancouver Sun interview.

Grits say Trudeau wrote the memoir himself, one source I read said with editorial assistants. At any rate the title, "Common Ground", is both vaguely centrist and restorationist.

How much juice does the dynasty have left?

[Njall]

Prentice has already ruled out running for Redford's seat.  Unless someone steps down once he wins the leadership, that means that his next chance to enter the legislature will come up once the federal writ is dropped and MLAs have to resign in order to campaign federally. 

So far, it looks like four seats in the legislature will be vacated at that point:

• Calgary-Buffalo: Liberal, Kent Hehr
• Calgary-Foothills: Independent (ex PC), Len Webber
• Calgary-McCall: Liberal, Darshan Kang
• Edmonton-McClung: PC, David Xiao

[RogueBeaver]

He can't stay outside the Leg for a year, someone has to resign. Paula Simons raised the possibility of another Getty moment on Twitter today.

[DC Al Fine]

He can't stay outside the Leg for a year, someone has to resign. Paula Simons raised the possibility of another Getty moment on Twitter today.

Seems strange that he didn't run though. Njall is right. The best place for him to run is an old money riding that's too rich to vote Lib/NDP and too liberal to swing to Wildrose. Those would be the Tories' last stronghold. How many more of those ridings are there in AB?

[Njall]

He can't stay outside the Leg for a year, someone has to resign. Paula Simons raised the possibility of another Getty moment on Twitter today.

Seems strange that he didn't run though. Njall is right. The best place for him to run is an old money riding that's too rich to vote Lib/NDP and too liberal to swing to Wildrose. Those would be the Tories' last stronghold. How many more of those ridings are there in AB?

It's hard to say, to be honest.  Calgary-Elbow probably had the highest concentration of voters like that.  I know that my riding of Calgary-Glenmore has some pockets as well, but they're certainly a smaller part of the riding's population.  Other ridings closer in to the centre of the city, such as Calgary-Klein or Calgary-Currie, are probably in the same boat.  I don't know if Edmonton has any comparable places, but there might be one or two options there as well.

[Hatman 🍁]

Don't forget the last by-election in Calgary-Elbow... what do you reckon the Liberals' chances are of winning it?

[RogueBeaver]

Abacus federal NL poll: Grits crushing 54/27/15.

[RogueBeaver]

Another de facto appointment by Trudeau: Seamus O'Regan in St. John's South-Mount Pearl.

Trudeau opposes the FNFTA.

[DC Al Fine]

Abacus federal NL poll: Grits crushing 54/27/15.

That should get them St. John's South-Mount Pearl. I imagine Harris is untouchable, so I doubt they'll get his seat until he's out of the picture