Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins

[Hatman 🍁]

Question for Hatman and RogueBeaver or anyone else who wishes to comment

How many of the current crop of NDP Members of Parliament from Quebec will survive the next election in your estimation?

Roughly 30 are safe due to their only relevant opposition (the Bloc Quebecois) being in even worse shape than they are. These are mostly in rural Quebec and parts of Montreal.

10ish are lost causes. These are mostly in Montreal and will be picked up by the Liberals.

The remaining ridings will depend on vote splits. The Liberals will win a few ridings in rural Quebec, the Tories might be able to snag a seat or two around Quebec City, but the NDP should hold a few of these.

I expect the Bloc Quebecois & Forces et Democratie to not win any seats.

They should hold most of their seats in the 450 area code (Montreal suburbs) as well. Outside of Quebec, the NDP is looking at mid 2000s level support, and may only win 20 or so seats.

[RogueBeaver]

Wildrose will either rejoin the Tories or disintegrate. So Prentice will accept their unconditional surrender, perhaps a token slot or 2 for Wildrose, tank all their nominations in 2016.

[Hatman 🍁]

What the heck

[RogueBeaver]

Sun has obtained the document. It outlines some policies which Prentice promises to adopt and says that Prentice will ensure the Wildroses be nominated as Tories in 2016.

[RogueBeaver]

Via David Akin, here's Thibault's statement. His reference to mandate letters sounds like he's getting either a PS or Cabinet slot.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Huh. I remember when everyone was running around declaring that the Alberta PC's were completely dead in the water. What weird end for Wildrose.

[politicus]

Huh. I remember when everyone was running around declaring that the Alberta PC's were completely dead in the water. What weird end for Wildrose.

Copying your opponents policy is often an efficient weapon.

[Njall]

The WRP President is vowing to fight the rumoured merger movement.

Personally, I'm not too fond of this merger idea anyways.

[Hatman 🍁]

time to jump ship njall

[Njall]

time to jump ship njall

Haha, we'll have to see how this plays out first.

On a random sidenote, if the merger happens and/or if 11 or more WRP MLAs cross the floor, then once Kent Hehr and Darshan Kang step down for their federal runs, Rachel Notley will become the first NDP Leader of the Official Opposition since 1993.

[Boston Bread]

How does a party just give up like that? Wasn't Wildrose expecting to form government if they just kept at it for a decade or so?

[DC Al Fine]

How does a party just give up like that?

Indeed. Something just doesn't make sense.

The most recent poll on wikipedia has the Tories up 6 points. That's nowhere near "all is lost" territory. What gives?

Also, there's still a core constituency that hates the PC's so I imagine there will be an alternative voice for conservatives next election, regardless of what happens.

[Boston Bread]

Is a Wildrose implosion a potential catalyst for the Libertarians to finally become relevant somewhere?

[DC Al Fine]

Is a Wildrose implosion a potential catalyst for the Libertarians to finally become relevant somewhere?

Doubtful. Because a) Wildrose's best region is very socon. b) Its the Libertarians.

[RogueBeaver]

Braid says Prentice's dream is uniting the right and a Liberal OO, which requires 9 (of 13) Wildrose defections. There's also the question of who gets that bank account. Smith might be a minister, Anderson an associate minister. What's left of Wildrose will hold a leadership convention soon.

[RogueBeaver]

Albertan journos I'm reading say Prentice has 7 so far, needs 9 for a Liberal OO.

[Njall]

Albertan journos I'm reading say Prentice has 7 so far, needs 9 for a Liberal OO.

He'd actually need 10 to either cross the floor or sit as independents; the WRP has 14 seats right now, and the ALP has 5.

Twitter is telling me that the following 7 WRP MLAs have voted to join the PCs:
Rob Anderson (Airdrie)
Gary Bikman (Cardston-Taber-Warner)
Jason Hale (Strathmore-Brooks)
Blake Pedersen (Medicine Hat)
Danielle Smith (Highwood)
Pat Stier (Livingstone-Macleod)
Jeff Wilson (Calgary-Shaw)


If true, this means that the Wildrose caucus will be left with 7 members, and the PC caucus will grow to 70.

[RogueBeaver]

Confirmed by CBC: 7.

Agreed w/Den Tandt.

Ivison: Defection sign of the times for Dippers. Says rumours of more Dipper-Grit defections and the Grits are actively courting GTA Dippers.

[Hatman 🍁]

If there's one province that doesn't need to "unite the right" it's Alberta. This is most disappointing. Just when Alberta politics were about to get interesting.

Danielle Smith was a good leader for the party, I doubt they can find someone of similar qualities.

[DC Al Fine]

1) So of the 7, how many of those would be right wing hold outs?

2) Why the heck are they merging? The party is ok in the polls and Prentice is hardly an arch-conservative.

3) Polls! My kingdom for a poll!

[DC Al Fine]

If there's one province that doesn't need to "unite the right" it's Alberta. This is most disappointing. Just when Alberta politics were about to get interesting.

Indeed, the god of political junkies has turned his back on us

[RogueBeaver]

Per Boessenkool, merger has Harper's blessing.

[RogueBeaver]

Lots of interesting stuff from Boessenkool on Twitter. He said merger has been in the works for over a year, plus other tidbits.

[RogueBeaver]

Smith and Anderson will join the Cabinet.

[Njall]

Smith and Anderson will join the Cabinet.

That better turn out to be wrong.  Not so much about Smith, but I can't stand Anderson, and I really don't like the idea of rewarding a serial opportunist who left the party when things looked bleak and would probably beg on his hands and knees to be let back in now.