Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins

[Citizen Hats]

How about favorite obscure premier? I'm a fan of Boss Johnson

[Citizen Hats]

Updated map of provincial general elections

[Citizen Hats]

Updated map of provincial general elections

Very cool. You should put the Yukon ridings in too.

I would have, but I couldn't find any of the territorial riding shapefiles, and Elections Yukon hasn't gotten back to me yet. Didn't feel like mucking around

[Citizen Hats]

Good riddance to the worst specimen of human scum.

No, if he were human scum, we would've given him the Order of Canada.

Now we just need to get rid of the Member for Vancouver East.

What's wrong with Libby Davies? I would've thought the most hated NDPer would be Pat Martin.

I say we should get Harcourt to run against her.

[Citizen Hats]

So what's up with that Angus Reid poll? Rogue poll or is there a shift afoot?

otherwise normal poll save for a huge swing to the Tories in Ontario.  methinks a 20th poll

[Citizen Hats]

It's interesting that after all the criticisms from the experts and the media, Canadians still support the measures. I suppose the people who are following it closely are more likely to be against it.

I once vouched for my roommate, even though I knew he was going to vote Tory. That's how much I support the right to vote.

Also, the fact that 52% of Canadians don't care if voting is difficult disgusts me.

I think it's just more that 52% of Canadians are sufficiently comfortable and have long been sufficiently comfortable to simply not be able to grasp how difficult this can be for some people's circumstances. It's so very far outside your typical middle class Canadian's life experience to not be able to prove your identity that they simply don't get it

[Citizen Hats]

Quick question, but why do Canadian party leaders risk running in marginal seats when leaders in other Westminster systems generally come from ultra safe seats?

I'm thinking of the likes of Marois, Clark, Iggy and even Couillard running in a PQ seat.

To boot:

• Marois won by 13 points in 2012 in Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré.  Likely some animus against her that lead to her losing in 2014.
• Previous BC Premier Gordon Campbell had always won Vancouver-Point Grey by comfortable, if not quite 'safe' margins, but Christy Clark was much less rhetorically suited to the sort of voters found in the riding and 2013 was actually the first time since 1991 that the Liberals didn't win Vancouver overall.  She had no seat when she was elected BC Liberal Leader
• Michael Ignatieff won by ten points in 2008, and it was widely regarded as a safe seat when he got into politics.
• Derryl Dexter in Nova Scotia had won by solid landslides in Cole Harbour prior to being tossed in 2013

It mostly seems that Canadian voters are fluid enough that safe seats simply don't remain safe for all that long.  Even out West, in landslide Tory Country, a whole crop of Tories were wiped out in 1993 by the Reform Party. 

I suppose it's notable that both Justin Trudeau and Thomas Mulcair run in seats that were recently occupied by other parties, and if either of them were to become unpopular, I suspect they too might lose their seats.  It's actually somewhat ironic, as I believe NDPer Mulcair's seat Outremont is the more tony of the two, while Trudeau's Papineau is among the poorest in Canada.

There does seem to a notion of taking the 'forward capital' approach though, where a leader gambles on the leader-effect to try to raise the fortunes of their party in an area where they are weak, such as Couillard in Roberval, or John Turner running in Vancouver Quadra in 1984, or Jean Chretien in St. Maurice, seats which it is likely might not have been won otherwise

[Citizen Hats]

Regional Projection

[Citizen Hats]

New AB poll: Wildrose 50, Progs 21.

Wow. And the Liberals are in fourth!

Nothing surprising, in the aftermath of Redford resignation. It will tighten later, through.

The Liberals in 4th is surprising. You'd think they'd be challenging the Tories for 2nd considering.

I would expect a lot of Red-PCs to 'go home' as a it were, but I never did like Raj Sherman all that much

[Citizen Hats]

Resize the image please.

sorry, didn't realize it was quite so gigantic

[Citizen Hats]

Yes, Trudeau's honeymoon is over.

Of course the 'honeymoon's' over. It's been over for a while now.  Honeymoons don't last a year. After a while, it just becomes a 'lead' 

[Citizen Hats]

Farcical Forum Poll has LPC at 45% in BC.  http://www.forumresearch.com/forms/News%20Archives/News%20Releases/30116_Fed_Horserace_News_Release_%282014.04.30%29_Forum_Research.pdf

Such numbers would project in Federal Liberals places like Kelowna and Vancouver East...

[Citizen Hats]

Some of the BC ridings from 1979 seem both familiar and strange, like Cariboo-Chilcotin stretching all the way down to Howe Sound past Squamish.   My first thought was that it sort of made sense, since the Sea-to-Sky highway wasn't built until the 1960s, and there was only ferry and rail access to Squamish, but then I remembered that Cayoosh Pass, the route north of that region, wasn't motorable until the 1970s. The only other way not-by-rail in or out of that region is by some shifting logging roads may not have existed in those days.

[Citizen Hats]

I think the 1993 result in York North must be the record. Bevilacqua won 71,500 votes in his own right.

Oh the perpetually under-represented suburbs. In BC they used to be allowed to make allowance for expected population growth, but they could never do it honestly, so you ended up with places like Atlin where members  were elected the basis of less than 3000 votes into the 1980s

[Citizen Hats]

The expanded Atlas also us to explore further back in the history and see some curiosities, like a Independent winning York North in 1984. (York North was huge then, including current Vaughan, Thornhill, Richmond Hill, Markham-Unionville and parts of Oak Ridges-Markham). It's an interesting story.

The PC incumbent, John Gamble (1979-1984) was a controversial hard-right and anti-communist MP. He ran for PC leadership in 1983 and got a very small result. Tony Roman was the mayor of Markham and local influent people convinced him of running to get rid of the hard right MP, because the Liberal candidate was weak (those local people were PCers, independents and Liberals). He ran on on some wierd halfway between Liberals and PC and won. He retired after one term and returned to Markham mayorship.

John Gamble tried to run for Reform in 1993, but was expelled for its links with neo-nazi Heritage Front.

People like Gamble remind to laugh at all the PC-nostalgics

[Citizen Hats]

Someone Polled BC! namely 39% NDP, 38% Liberal, 14% Green

http://www.insightswest.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/ReportCardMay2014_Tables.pdf

[Citizen Hats]

West Nova, BC

Can't believe I missed that one

Also, West Nova & Central Nova are stupid riding names.

Yes, they are. What would you call them?

 Annapolis Valley-Yarmouth and East Shore-Pictou

[Citizen Hats]

What about Yarmouth-Digby-Annapolis Valley ?

I would also go with Pictou-Antigonish-Eastern Shore for Central Nova.

Antigonish is just such a damndably long string of long syllables when properly pronounced

[Citizen Hats]

For NB SW, I would suggest: Charlotte-Saint John Valley
For BC SI: Kootenay-Okanagan or Kootenay-Similkameen or Kootenay-Boundary-Okanagan/Similkameen

Thankfully, BCSI riding is gone, replaced with the more sensibly shaped ridings of 'South Okanagan-West Kootenay'  and 'Central Okanagan-Similkameen-Nicola'  

Both of which are horrible names.  I think a name that contains more than four-five words should be struck, along with pointless directionals. SOWK could be replaced with Okanagan-Kootenay.  COSN could easily be Okanagan-Similkameen-Nicola or Okanagan-Merritt-Keremeos or Boundary Okanagan or whatever.

as for the old riding, I feel 'Kootenay-Keremeos' would have been an artful name

Of course, the BC Commission was fond of ensuring that everyone knew at a glance what particular part of some area was attached to another area, thus we end up with Vancouver Island North-Comox-Powell River and Burnaby North-Seymour. I would rename so many of them

Also, thoughts on 'Vancouver Quadra'? It's been named that for decades, but Quadra isn't a neighborhood. Quadra is an island north of here, and was a Spanish explorer. Despite my dislike of ridings-from-people, I do feel that Quadra has been Quadra for so long that it has become part of the Geography

[Citizen Hats]

For Quadra: Why not Quilchena-Point Grey? (for the provincial ridings)

Especially after redistribution that would make some sense. Thing is that, while I don't mind the just-pick-a-name approach, 'Quilchena' isn't actually the name of anything other than a mid sized park and a smallish street and a small town in the Interior. 

Vancouver-West would be the most logical name if not for the existence of the municipality of West Vancouver.  Perhaps Vancouver-University? It might even be polite to make it Vancouver-Musquem or something like that

[Citizen Hats]

I hate appending "University" to riding names. But you're right about Quilchena. I couldn't find much referring to the area as that.

This may be getting too long for you, but what about "Vancouver West End--Point Grey"?


ETA: Actually, "Vancouver-Point Grey" might be inclusive enough, since there are areas in the south of the riding called Point Grey as well.

Cardinal-Direction geography is tricky in Vancouver, and any name including a cardinal direction is probably in no way a symmetrical concept with a similar name including a different cardinal direction.  'The West End' refers to the portion of the downtown peninsula NW of Burrard St. and SW of Georgia St, which is part of Vancouver-Centre.

Point Grey refers to two things- the headland on which UBC sits (a term which is not frequently encountered for lack of need to use it), and the rather tony neighborhood between Blanca St, 16th Avenue, and Alma St. This neighborhood is quite small compared to Vancouver Point Grey, and smaller still next to Vancouver Quadra, though the headland does itself make a good name. 

What's wrong with -University?

[Citizen Hats]

I'm kind of curious what they'll do in in Calgary next redistribution. It's big enough that they could start using riding names other than Calgary_______ but the city grew so fast, there aren't really any alternative place names to use. There's no equivalent to Etobicoke or Scarborough for Calgary is there?

Not really, no. It's incredibly difficult to name ridings in Calgary, because the city isn't really divided into large regions with a unique names (even Edmonton as Mill Woods). Rather, the city is divided up into hundreds of small little neighbourhoods.

Can they just divide into "North Calgary" and "South Calgary" or something?

There are ten constituencies within Calgary city limits

[Citizen Hats]

I hate appending "University" to riding names. But you're right about Quilchena. I couldn't find much referring to the area as that.

This may be getting too long for you, but what about "Vancouver West End--Point Grey"?


ETA: Actually, "Vancouver-Point Grey" might be inclusive enough, since there are areas in the south of the riding called Point Grey as well.

Cardinal-Direction geography is tricky in Vancouver, and any name including a cardinal direction is probably in no way a symmetrical concept with a similar name including a different cardinal direction.  'The West End' refers to the portion of the downtown peninsula NW of Burrard St. and SW of Georgia St, which is part of Vancouver-Centre.

Point Grey refers to two things- the headland on which UBC sits (a term which is not frequently encountered for lack of need to use it), and the rather tony neighborhood between Blanca St, 16th Avenue, and Alma St. This neighborhood is quite small compared to Vancouver Point Grey, and smaller still next to Vancouver Quadra, though the headland does itself make a good name. 

What's wrong with -University?

Every major city in Canada has a university, there is nothing unique about using it in a riding name.

As for Point Grey, there is a golf course in the southern part of Vancouver Quadra named Point Grey, which is why I thought it would be a good name.

Every major city in Canada has a north end or a west end, and University seems more interesting than that. 

And true, there is the Point Grey golf course. I used to live near there, over on the Musquem Reserve. 

[Citizen Hats]

Hebert: revert to much stricter early voting.

Ibbitson: Trudeau doesn't understand the realities of modern foreign policy.

Ibbitson's article could be summarized as 'I'm going to pretend that Justin Trudeau is actually 1988 vintage John Turner'

[Citizen Hats]

Ah, the Nanos incomparable voodoo-poll