Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins

[Poirot]

FTR, I mentioned they should include Justin Bieber in that poll. They were having none of that.

No Bieber but Carly Rae Jepson was included in the choice for greatest canadian. (she received 0.5%)

[Poirot]

Anthony Housefather will run and be the next Grit MP from Mont-Royal. Will miss Cotler, and had the privilege of meeting him a few years ago.

Clearly Mont Royal has been trending Royal Blue.  Possibly not soon enough to keep Housefeather from being the next MP, but Housefeather will definitely have to be more than a mailbox.

Even if the Conservatives focus on the jewish vote again, the Liberals won't do as badly this time.

A blog post on 308 website about Mont-Royal.
http://www.threehundredeight.com/2014/02/with-cotlers-departure-is-mount-royal.html

[Poirot]

So just how screwed are the federal Conservatives under PM Stephen Harper?  Is their majority a lost cause in 2015?   

I think it will be difficult for them to win a majority. They won about 54% of seats while the Liberals bombed. It's difficult to see where they could gain so it will be trying to limit losses. It looks very difficult to repeat the 2011 Ontario federal result of getting 44% of vote share while the other two parties get 25% each.

[Poirot]

I had emailed the federal Infrastructure Minister about the decision to put a toll on the Champlain bridge. I have received a reply three months later. He says sorry for the delay. I guess it's true governments are slow.

[Poirot]

Also, hoping for an election next spring due to the many provincials that fall. IIRC Harper hinted as much.

If it is changed tp Spring I hope he has all parties support publicly because if not it will look like he is not respecting the rules.

[Poirot]

A CROP poll for federal voting intentions in Quebec.

LPC 33%
NDP 31
Bloc 18
CP 13

(franco NDP 35, LPC 28, Bloc 21, CP 13)

Best PM: 27% Trudeau, 26% Mulcair, 12% Harper
30% satisfied with the government


http://www.lapresse.ca/actualites/politique/politique-canadienne/201403/19/01-4749419-sondage-le-npd-talonne-les-liberaux-de-trudeau.php?utm_categorieinterne=trafficdrivers&utm_contenuinterne=cyberpresse_lire_aussi_4740223_article_POS1

[Poirot]

The supreme court blocks the appointment of Marc Nadon as supreme court justice.

From all possible judges and lawyers, the government had to pick someone who is not eligible.

http://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/scc-blocks-harper-s-appointment-of-marc-nadon-1.1739280

[Poirot]

Andrée Champagne is a Conservative Senator even though she was appointed by Paul Martin. She was a Progressive-Conservative MP during the Mulroney years.

[Poirot]

Marie-Claude Morin, NDP MP Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot, will not run in 2015.

http://www.lapresse.ca/la-voix-de-lest/actualites/201407/01/01-4780313-pas-de-nouveau-mandat-pour-marie-claude-morin.php

[Poirot]

Following the Crop poll, Léger marketing also has a federal voting intentions in Québec poll. The Liberal party is first with 39%, NDP 29%, Bloc 16% and Conservative 12%.

Among francophones it's a statistical tie with NDP 32%, LPC 30%, Bloc 21%, Conservatives 12%. Non-Francophones: 67% LPC, 18% NDP, 13% Conservatives.

[Poirot]

Just to add information, the terminology varies from province. Ontario seems to be the only one using MPP. Wikipedia says

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[Poirot]

Is it possible Olivia Chow returns to federal politics? When she left did she indicated she was done with federal politics.

[Poirot]

On the news they said MP Maria Mourani (Ahunstic in Montreal) had meetings with NDP and it is speculated she would probably join that party.

[Poirot]

CROP federal: 33/30/21/12 among Francophones, 37/30/17/13 topline.

Quebec City: 37/31/21.

Based on that CROP poll Too Close To Call has a seat distribution of LPC 36 seats, NDP 35 and PC 7.

[Poirot]

The results by regions for the Forum poll are on page 7 of the document. For the province of Quebec the sample is 321.

Libe: 27% Cons: 26% NDP:25% Bloc 18% Green:3%

There is also national data by language with ties.
French: 26% for the three main federal parties
English: 37% LIb and Con with NDP at 18%


   

[Poirot]

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The Quebec premier is opposed to abolishing the Senate. I think he sees it functioning like a chanber of regions, provinces would submit a list of candidates to the federal government to choose from. I'm not sure if citizens would mind if it is abolished.