Canada General Discussion 1.5: The Countdown Begins

[DC Al Fine]

Looking forward to it. What's coming up this year? New Brunswick votes in the fall and possibly Quebec/Ontario. Anything else?

[DC Al Fine]

Does anyone get the feeling that Justin Trudeau could be Canada's Barack Obama? I'm getting a    Bush vibe from Stephen Harper as well.

No.

(One of the important secrets of Canadian politics is that the Conservatives were the first to embrace the Obama campaign's big-data tactics - though they had to cancel their newest voter database project.)

Yeah. if Harper is like a Bush, he'd be Bush I. Dull and competent.

[DC Al Fine]

Isn't Trudeau only Liberal leader because his father was? (In terms of the whole 'sentiment' thing).

Yes. If his last name wasn't Trudeau I doubt he would've even won the nomination in his own riding.

[DC Al Fine]

Unsurprisingly, Trudeau wins the beer test. Except in Quebec, where Mulcair does.

Trudeau because I want to ask him if it was awkward running against someone his Dad used to bang.

[DC Al Fine]

Ford has filed for reelection "Ford More Years." Chow and Tory won't declare for another month or 2, if they do.

I really don't understand the people who would still vote for Ford.

Considering that the council has effectively neutered the mayor's office, I'd be willing to vote for Ford either for the lols or simply as a protest.  That isn't to say I would vote for Ford.  I don't know if there would be a candidate I could support in eir own right.  Even if there be no such candidate, I don't know if I'd want to protest the Third York City Council. Nor do I know if I'd think Ford would be the best person to tweak the council with.  On the other hand, if I were a Canadian comedian, I'd absolutely vote for Ford.

Hey now, you should definitely vote for your economic best interests

[DC Al Fine]

I'm curious. Where does everyone stand on Michael Chong's bill?

[DC Al Fine]

Staunchly oppose. My hope is that Harper and Poilievre kill it with a smile, have a debate but then send it off to committee oblivion.

Somewhat oppose. The political junkie in me likes it, but the person who wants stable government does not

Dippers raised 800k last Q. Is there something I'm missing? On QP Flaherty insisted, without prompting, that he's running in 2015 and so will Harper. Though for obvious reasons Flaherty could hardly say otherwise about his own prospects. Needless to say Clement would be his replacement were he to leave. Mulcair talked as usual about hiking corporate taxes and energy policy, Trudeau was Jell-O but did talk about the usual infrastructure/health/education Grit stuff to do with the surplus. Scoop from Ivison: apparently Kenney threatened to quit Cabinet over his new portfolio (which he doesn't like) because he feels he's been set up to fail without more money allocated in the budget. Probably an underlying cause of his feud with Flaherty.

I imagine he's pissed because it puts him in a slightly worse leadership position as well. Immigration gives him the ability to keep all those immigrant Tories in Vancouver/GTA in his camp.

[DC Al Fine]

Manitoba PC's have a 22 point lead. Would result in a landslide win. NDP are on their way out regardless but I imagine the Liberal resurgence is going to exacerbate the loss.

[DC Al Fine]

Maybe by orange and red avatars.

Yes, and I doubt actual Tea Partiers would approve of our loyalty to the Crown.

[DC Al Fine]

Maybe by orange and red avatars.

Yes, and I doubt actual Tea Partiers would approve of our loyalty to the Crown.

You're not exactly the Canadian tea bagger type. You're very socially conservative, and economically moderate. Canadian tea baggers are the opposite. Socially moderate, economically very right wing.

Oh yeah, I didn't mean to suggest I was a Tea Partier...

Yeah I take that comment back. Now that I think back, most of the libertarianish people I know in CPC oppose the monarchy.

[DC Al Fine]

NS Finance Minister is finally going to get her February holiday. She introduced it every year for several years in a row, and she's finally getting it in the spring session

[DC Al Fine]

So, are the Liberals governing to the left of the NDP?

Eh. The only major thing they've done is announce they won't be cutting the HST. I'm not sure whether that's left or right.

[DC Al Fine]

So I did a tax return for someone from Ontario today.

You know that big bad "tax the rich" rate for earners >$500 000? NS has higher rates starting at $30 000

[DC Al Fine]

Jean Crowder is retiring next year, as are Cotler and St. Denis. I've always thought (and heard rumblings) that Cotler wouldn't run again. St. Denis obviously wasn't running given the switch and health. I assume the Grits would like to line up a name candidate in one of their crown jewels, no idea who that might be.

They ought to get someone good now that they are legitimate contenders in power again. Safe seat for life is an attractive prospect.

[DC Al Fine]

Speaking of Mulcair is that Quebec NDP thing still in the works?

[DC Al Fine]

PQ expects a spring election, not a winter one. Depends what happens with the budget. As I've said since the last election, fully expect Marois to win a second term. Question is majority or minority. I'm also tempted to believe that Couillard will lose his "leadership" (one Peq even compared him to Iggy in Le Devoir!) either through a PQ majority or like John Tory, losing his chosen seat.
 

They can't find him a safe seat in Montreal?

[DC Al Fine]

PQ expects a spring election, not a winter one. Depends what happens with the budget. As I've said since the last election, fully expect Marois to win a second term. Question is majority or minority. I'm also tempted to believe that Couillard will lose his "leadership" (one Peq even compared him to Iggy in Le Devoir!) either through a PQ majority or like John Tory, losing his chosen seat.
 

They can't find him a safe seat in Montreal?

Worse, he currently have one (he got elected in a by-election in Outremont), but he is insisting on running in the seat of Roberval, where he has his chalet. It would only his 4th riding in 6 years being an MNA. Mont-Royal (Montreal safe seat) 2003-2007. In 2007, he decided in run in Jean-Talon (Quebec City), but resigned within a year. And, new, he came back in Outremont and wants to run in Roberval (rural Lac-St-Jean).

That's just bizarre. Why'd he jump from Montreal to QC? If I had a safe seat like Mont-Royal, I'd camp out there till I was 90

[DC Al Fine]

NPDQ is open for business. I'm not a fan of our fragmented party system to begin with, but curious to see how Ducasse makes out.

I can has polls?

[DC Al Fine]

Someone made a positive comment about Harper at work today... yeah it's not really news, but I'm a student and I live in Atlantic Canada, so it's news for me.

[DC Al Fine]

Flaherty's publicly doubting income splitting. I don't believe Flaherty quits unless it actually happens, but he's been acting a bit strangely recently.

Boo, hiss!!

Trudeau: budgets balance themselves. In the same universe where Santa, the Easter Bunny and unicorns exist, undoubtedly.

This is good for the Tory narrative. Trudeau's airheadedness is astounding.

[DC Al Fine]

Latest Ipsos Reid poll



Things to note:

1) The Tories are at 12% in Atlantic Canada
2) The Grits are at almost 40% in Alberta!

[DC Al Fine]

Trudeau thinks Russia might invade Ukraine because they lost in hockey. In case anyone doubted he's in way over his head... but also continuing in the family foreign affairs tradition.

I for one welcome our teen popstar overlord.

[DC Al Fine]

Wildrose is out in front again.

[DC Al Fine]

It looks like Environics disagrees.

PC: 36
WRP: 33
ALP: 18
NDP: 12

That would make for some interesting results.

[DC Al Fine]

Corporate Research Associates did their quarterly poll of Atlantic Canada. Change from last quarter's poll are in brackets.

Newfoundland
Liberal: 53% (+1)
Progressive Conservative: 33% (+4)
NDP 13% (-6)

New Brunswick
Liberal: 43% (-4)
Progressive Conservative: 31% (+6)
NDP 21% (-3)
Green 4% (-)
People's Alliance 1 (-)

PEI
Liberal: 53% (+4)
NDP 22% (-4)
Progressive Conservative: 17% (-)
Green 7% (-)

They usually release one province each day, so I expect the Nova Scotia results will be out Monday. Some comments:

1) The Newfoundland Tories just got a leader, so I doubt their uptick in support will last.
2) The swing to the NB Tories is more likely to stick, though they still have a lot of ground to make up if they want to win in October.
3) The NB NDP have declined some, but they should still establish a beachhead in the next election (maybe 4-5 seats)
4) The PEI NDP in 2nd last quarter was not a fluke! I have no idea how that support will translate into seats though.